Coursera Inc. (COUR) valuation at a glance
Coursera Inc. (COUR) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $4.96 versus a $6.20 estimate, that is a 25% upside.
- Price
- $4.96
- Fair value estimate
- $6.20
- Upside
- +25%
- Market cap
- $1.42B
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.6×
CompaniesCOUR
COUR
Coursera Inc.
Consumer DiscretionaryUdemy AcquisitionAll-Stock DealCash-RichNegative EVShare BuybackIntegration Charges
Overview
$4.96+6.2%
Market Cap
$1.42B
yfinance
P/E (TTM)
–
yfinance
Rev Growth YoY
59.6%
+59.6%yfinance
Gross Margin
55.9%
yfinance
FCF Yield
0.8%
Calculated from yfinance
Upside to FV
+25.0%
internal scenarios, stated multiples applied to stat
Conviction
2/5Coursera paid for Udemy in stock, issued about 105 million shares to do it, and took a $79.8M merger, integration and restructuring charge in the quarter the deal closed. The trailing income statement is therefore two companies for part of a year, with deal costs inside it, and any per-share figure computed across the old share count is wrong. What is not distorted is the balance sheet: $982.2M of cash and short-term investments, no debt reported, against a market capitalisation of $1.42B at the 30 September close of $4.96. Enterprise value is roughly $438M for a business with $885.4M of trailing revenue. The stock fell 55.8% from its 52-week high into the close below five dollars, then jumped 6.2% on the last day on 2.38 times average volume, and a 10% owner bought 2.3 million shares at 4.61 to 5.06 four days before that close.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated today
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
Value3/3
Future2/2
Past2/4
Health3/3
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Coursera runs an online platform for degrees, certificates and corporate training, and on the evidence of its own statements it has spent four years narrowing losses without once reaching profitability: operating losses of $167.2M, $151.4M, $104.3M and $78.3M across fiscal 2022 to 2025 on revenue that grew from $523.8M to $757.5M. Then it bought Udemy in an all-stock deal that closed in the second quarter of 2026, issued roughly 105 million shares as consideration, and took a $79.8M merger and restructuring charge. Trailing revenue jumped to $885.4M and second-quarter revenue to $298.6M, up 59.6% on the prior-year quarter, but the prior-year quarter contains no Udemy at all, so the growth rate is an artefact of the deal perimeter. The second-quarter operating result, deal charges included, was a loss of $4.9M, the closest the company has come to break-even. The balance sheet is the real story: $982.2M of cash and short-term investments at 30 June, no debt line reported, and 274.5 million shares issued against a $1.42B market cap, which prices the whole operating business at about $438M of enterprise value, under half a year of revenue, for a company that has been converging on operational break-even. Against that, the quarter still burned $19.8M of operating cash and $27.5M after capital spending, stock compensation alone was $39.6M, and integration of two overlapping education catalogues is unproven. The question this page tries to answer is whether the market is paying $438M for a self-funding education platform with most of its purchase price back in cash, or $1.42B for a slower-growing subscription business that has just doubled its share count.
Bull Case
Bear Case
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.42B
yfinance
Enterprise Value
$438M
Calculated from yfinance
Revenue (TTM)
$885M
yfinance
P/E (TTM)
–
yfinance
Forward P/E
–
internal scenarios, stated multiples applied to stat
P/S (TTM)
1.6×
yfinance
P/B
1.2×
yfinance
EV/EBITDA
–
Calculated from yfinance
PEG
–
Calculated from yfinance
Revenue Growth
59.6%
yfinance
Gross Margin
55.9%
yfinance
Operating Margin
-8.8%
yfinance
Net Margin
-15.4%
yfinance
Free Cash Flow
$11M
yfinance
FCF Yield
0.8%
Calculated from yfinance
Debt / Equity
0.0×
yfinance
Current Ratio
–
yfinance
Short Interest
10.0%
yfinance institutional holders (13F, 30 June 2026) and Form 4 insider transactions
Institutional Own.
92.6%
yfinance institutional holders (13F, 30 June 2026) and Form 4 insider transactions
Insider Own.
3.3%
yfinance institutional holders (13F, 30 June 2026) and Form 4 insider transactions
Shares Out.
286.4M
yfinance
Float
235.1M
yfinance institutional holders (13F, 30 June 2026) and Form 4 insider transactions
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.20
Base$6.20
Bull$9.80
Now $4.96
Bear Case
$3.20
Integration stalls, the combined platform stays at the second-quarter cash burn rate of minus $27.5M free cash flow per quarter, and the market prices the equity at roughly the cash line less two years of burn. $982.2M less $220M over eight quarters, discounted, leaves about $900M of equity value over 286.4 million shares. That is $3.20, a 35% fall, which is roughly where the stock traded before the deal-completion bounce.
Base Case
$6.20
The combined company reaches operational break-even through 2027 as the standalone trajectory implied, with trailing free cash flow moving from $10.6M toward $60M as deal charges roll off and $39.6M quarterly stock compensation moderates. The market pays 1.6 times the $885.4M revenue base on an enterprise value of $1.42B, close to where comparable listed education platforms trade. Add back the net cash and equity value is about $1.78B over 286.4 million shares, which is $6.20, a 25% gain.
Bull Case
$9.80
Integration delivers the catalogue consolidation the deal was built for, revenue growth returns to double digits on the combined base, and free cash flow reaches $100M by 2028. The market pays 25 times that free cash flow, $2.5B of enterprise value, and the cash line adds nothing on top because it has been spent on the deal and buybacks. About $2.8B of equity over 286.4 million shares is $9.80, just under double the current price, and still below the mean analyst target of $8.17 on a pre-integration consensus.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUR | $1.42B | – | 1.6× | – | +60.0% | 56.0% | -15.0% |
| CHGG | $81M | – | 0.3× | 0.7× | -51.0% | 65.0% | -20.0% |
| LOPE | $3.95B | 18.3× | 3.5× | 10.4× | +7.0% | 53.0% | 20.0% |
| LRN | $3.24B | 10.9× | 1.3× | 5.5× | -3.0% | 38.0% | 13.0% |
| DUOL | $6.63B | 16.8× | 5.8× | 30.4× | +18.0% | 73.0% | 36.0% |
| AFYA | $1.07B | 7.4× | 0.3× | 2.2× | +6.0% | 64.0% | 20.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM to Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue TTM is the four quarters to 30 June 2026; includes Udemy from deal close | $694.7M | $757.5M | $885.4M |
| Gross profit Gross margin 55.9% on the trailing window | $371.4M | $413.4M | $494.8M |
| Operating income Loss narrowed 53% from FY2022's -$167.2M; TTM contains the $79.8M deal charge | -$104.3M | -$78.3M | -$78.1M |
| Net income TTM dragged down by the deal quarter's -$80.4M | -$79.5M | -$51.0M | -$136.3M |
| Line Item | 31 Mar '26 | 30 Jun '26 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments Cash only was $871.7M; $110.5M in short-term investments | $789.8M | $982.2M |
| Total debt No debt line in the statements | none reported | none reported |
| Working capital | $531.0M | $453.3M |
| Goodwill New at 30 June, from the Udemy deal | – | $182.7M |
| Other intangible assets Also new with the acquisition | $30.9M | $436.3M |
| Shares issued About 105M issued as deal consideration; 286.4M outstanding on the feed at 30 September | 169.3M | 274.5M |
| Line Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM to Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow TTM includes the deal quarter's -$19.8M | $95.4M | $108.7M | $34.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$18.8M | -$19.6M | -$23.9M |
| Free cash flow Deal quarter alone was -$27.5M | $76.6M | $89.1M | $10.6M |
| Stock-based compensation Second quarter alone $39.6M, about 13% of quarterly revenue | $108.1M | $95.1M | $107.0M |
Figures come from the yfinance structured pull for COUR harvested on 30 September 2026 (docs/cycles/raw/cour-yfinance-2026-10-01.json) and re-verified on 1 October 2026. Fiscal year ends 31 December, so trailing twelve months is the four quarters to 30 June 2026. The second quarter of 2026 contains the Udemy acquisition from its closing date and a $79.8M merger, integration and restructuring charge, so no period in the trailing window is directly comparable with any other. Every number is recomputed from the raw pull rather than taken from an aggregator. Source: 10-K filed 2026-08-14 ↗
Catalysts
Oct 30 '26
Earningshigh relevance
First full quarter of the combined company
The next report is the first to contain a full quarter of Udemy with no closing-week distortions, and the first test of whether the combined platform holds the $298.6M quarterly revenue level or the integration drag shows. Operating income of -$4.9M in the deal quarter is the number to compare against: a positive print would confirm the break-even trajectory, the -$19.8M operating cash burn is the other number to watch.
Sep 29 '26
Insiderhigh relevance
Pale Fire Capital bought $11.4M four days before the bounce
The 10% owner purchased 2,332,742 shares at 4.61 to 5.06 on 29 September; the stock closed at 4.96 on 30 September, up 6.2% on 2.38 times average volume. A large holder buying into the post-deal drawdown is the clearest external datapoint that the cash-adjusted valuation is accepted.
Oct '26
Capital
Buyback continues against the new register
Coursera repurchased 16.5 million shares under the programme announced with the Udemy completion, against 105 million issued. The pace of further repurchases, funded from the $982.2M cash line, is the main lever holders have for limiting the dilution the deal created.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 59.6% trailing growth rate is a perimeter artefact and will not repeat once the window fills with combined quarters. | Earnings Quality | High | Certain | Second-quarter revenue of $298.6M against $187.1M a year earlier compares a two-company quarter with a one-company one. Normalised for the deal the combined top line is roughly flat. Any screen or multiple built on trailing growth overstates this company, and the fair-value range here assumes growth near single digits. |
| The company doubled its share count to buy Udemy and pays 13% of quarterly revenue in stock compensation on top. | Dilution | High | Certain | Issued shares went from 169.3M at 31 March to 274.5M at 30 June, and shares outstanding stand at 286.4M. Stock-based compensation was $39.6M in the deal quarter. The 16.5 million shares bought back offset 16% of the issuance. Per-share value claims that ignore the new count are wrong by roughly 60%. |
| Integration of two overlapping education catalogues is unproven and the deal quarter still burned cash. | Execution | High | Likely | Operating cash flow was -$19.8M and free cash flow -$27.5M in the quarter the deal closed, with a $79.8M merger and restructuring charge taken. Trailing free cash flow is only $10.6M on $885.4M of revenue. If integration costs persist past the closing quarter, the cash line funds losses rather than buybacks, and the negative-enterprise-value argument weakens quarter by quarter. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$4.64$4.96$11.21
RSI (14)
41.3
neutral
50-Day MA
$5.60
-11.4%below
200-Day MA
$5.96
-16.8%below
Avg Vol (30d)
5.8M
+148%vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: yfinance. closing prices without adjustment, 252 sessions to the 30 September 2026 close; average volume over the last 30 sessions
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia yfinance institutional holders (13F, 30 June 2026) and Form 4 insider transactions
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
Shares outstanding stand at 286.4 million against 274.5 million issued at 30 June, after about 105 million were issued for the Udemy acquisition and 16.5 million were bought back under the completion programme. Institutional ownership is 92.6% of the float-based register and insider ownership 3.3%, with short interest at 10.0% of the 235.1 million float. The top ten institutional holders, all reporting at 30 June 2026, hold 138.9 million shares, about half the issued count: BlackRock 7.8%, Pale Fire Capital 7.7%, Caledonia Investments 7.7%, Baillie Gifford 5.8%, NEA 4.9%, two Vanguard units 8.6% combined, Ameriprise 4.3%, Insight Holdings 3.4% and Westerly Capital 2.3%. The most recent insider transaction is Pale Fire Capital's purchase of 2,332,742 shares at 4.61 to 5.06 on 29 September 2026; the only other open-market sale in the last five months was the general counsel's 9,139 shares at 5.71 on 17 August, and directors took routine 34,260-share grants in June.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUR | $1.42B | – | 1.6× | – | +60.0% | 56.0% | -15.0% |
| CHGG | $81M | – | 0.3× | 0.7× | -51.0% | 65.0% | -20.0% |
| LOPE | $3.95B | 18.3× | 3.5× | 10.4× | +7.0% | 53.0% | 20.0% |
| LRN | $3.24B | 10.9× | 1.3× | 5.5× | -3.0% | 38.0% | 13.0% |
| DUOL | $6.63B | 16.8× | 5.8× | 30.4× | +18.0% | 73.0% | 36.0% |
| AFYA | $1.07B | 7.4× | 0.3× | 2.2× | +6.0% | 64.0% | 20.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: yfinance; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-10-01Every figure recomputed from the raw yfinance harvest (docs/cycles/raw/cour-yfinance-2026-10-01.json) and fresh close data (scratch/cour/fresh.json); no LLM-sourced numbers
The addition and subtraction that decide this page
Add the 105 million shares issued for Udemy to the 169.3 million issued at 31 March and subtract the 16.5 million bought back: that is the register every per-share number on this page must use. Subtract $982.2M of cash and short-term investments from the $1.42B market capitalisation: that is the $438.1M enterprise value, under half a year of trailing revenue, that makes this page interesting. And subtract the prior-year quarter from the growth rate: the 59.6% headline collapses to roughly flat once the missing Udemy revenue is put back into the base. The balance sheet is real, the growth rate is not, and the 30 October report is where the combined company has to prove which one the market has been trading.
Sources
Coursera Inc. valuation questions
Is Coursera Inc. (COUR) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Coursera Inc. trades below: $4.96 today versus a $6.20 estimate, about +25%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Coursera Inc.'s fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for COUR is $6.20. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.20, base $6.20, bull $9.80. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Coursera Inc.'s market cap?
Coursera Inc. (COUR) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $1.42B, and an enterprise value of $438M.
What is the bull and bear case for COUR?
Valuation scenarios: bull $9.80, base $6.20, bear $3.20. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.