Ambev (ABEV) valuation at a glance
Ambev (ABEV) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $3.20 versus a $3.39 estimate, that is a 6% upside.
- Price
- $3.20
- Fair value estimate
- $3.39
- Upside
- +6%
- Forward P/E
- 12.0×
- Market cap
- $50.00B
- P/S (TTM)
- 3.1×
CompaniesABEV
Overview
ABEV
Ambev
Consumer DefensiveBeveragesBrazilCash-Rich
$3.20+0.6%
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC 20-F
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
5.0%
+5%SEC filing
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
36.5%
calculated
Upside to FV
+5.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Consumer-defensive beverage giant at a 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap — slow grower, fortress balance sheet.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-05-25
Quality Snowflake
Overall 84/100
Value4/5
Future2/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend3/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Ambev is the dominant Latin American brewer (an AB InBev affiliate). A 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap make it a defensive cash machine; the trade-off is low single-digit volume growth and heavy BRL exposure. It sits outside the core sub-$10 small-cap mandate as a $50B mega-cap, so it is tracked as a defensive watchlist name rather than a deep-value buy. Phase 1.
Bull Case
Cash Generation~36.5% FCF yield and cash equal to ~39.4% of market cap; near-zero leverage — a defensive cash machine.
FranchiseDominant Latin American brewer with category-leading brands and an AB InBev distribution/cost backbone.
DefensiveConsumer-staple demand and a strong balance sheet provide downside protection in risk-off regimes.
Bear Case
GrowthLow single-digit volume growth; mature category caps the re-rating case.
FX / MacroBRL depreciation erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend; Brazil-tax and Selic dynamics weigh on EM multiples.
Mandate Fit$50B mega-cap — outside the sub-$10 small-cap deep-value focus; included only as a defensive comparator.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC 20-F
Enterprise Value
$46.00B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$16.00B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
12.0×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
3.1×
via financials
P/B
2.0×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
calculated
PEG
1.5×
calculated
Revenue Growth
5.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
28.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$4.00B
SEC filing
FCF Yield
36.5%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
–
exchange
Institutional Own.
6.9%
13F
Insider Own.
0.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
15.70B
SEC filing
Float
6.00B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$2.60
Base$3.39
Bull$4.00
Now $3.20
Bear Case
$2.60
Analyst low 12-month target (10 analysts)
Base Case
$3.39
Analyst mean 12-month target (10 analysts)
Bull Case
$4.00
Analyst high 12-month target (10 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$18.20B
FCF Yield
36.4%
Balance Sheet
$16.53B net cash
Rev CAGR
3%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 2.6× | 0.5× | 1.1× |
| FY23 | 2.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× |
| FY24 | 2.0× | 0.3× | 0.1× |
| FY25 | 2.5× | 0.4× | 0.8× |
| TTM · | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 79,709 | 79,737 | 89,453 | 88,242 |
| Cost of Revenue | 40,422 | 39,292 | 43,615 | 42,864 |
| Gross Profit | 39,287 | 40,445 | 45,838 | 45,378 |
| Operating Income | 17,403 | 18,773 | 21,507 | 22,323 |
| EBITDA | 23,085 | 24,270 | 29,012 | 28,974 |
| Net Income | 14,458 | 14,502 | 14,437 | 15,503 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 14,926 | 16,059 | 28,596 | 18,638 |
| Total Assets | 137,958 | 132,644 | 162,508 | 145,087 |
| Total Debt | 3,845 | 3,501 | 3,453 | 3,387 |
| Total Liabilities | 54,630 | 52,500 | 62,928 | 56,312 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 81,956 | 78,969 | 98,642 | 87,914 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 15,742 | 15,749 | 15,728 | 15,617 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 20,642 | 24,711 | 26,099 | 24,450 |
| Capital Expenditure | (6,533) | (6,004) | (4,749) | (4,590) |
| Free Cash Flow | 14,109 | 18,707 | 21,350 | 19,860 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (5,004) | (5,766) | (5,463) | (4,950) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (16,338) | (16,115) | (10,352) | (26,772) |
Figures normalized from Ambev S.A.'s SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-03. BRL millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-03 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earnings
Quarterly results
Watch volume trends and the BRL impact on USD-translated cash returns.
2026
Macro
Brazil Selic path
Lower rates would support EM consumer-staple multiples and the dividend's relative appeal.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL depreciation vs USD | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend. |
| Low structural growth | Competition | Medium | High | Mature beer category limits multiple expansion. |
| Brazil tax/regulatory regime | Regulatory | Low | Medium | Dividend-withholding and excise changes can reduce net cash returns to nonresidents. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.00$3.20$3.50
RSI (14)
50
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.15
+1.6%above
200-Day MA
$2.90
+10.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
15M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.90$2.00
Resistance Levels
$3.50
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | 347.0M | 2.20% | +3.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| GQG Partners LLC | 187.0M | 1.19% | +8.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 34.9M | 0.22% | +43.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC | 28.1M | 0.18% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Renaissance Technologies, LLC | 27.4M | 0.17% | +6.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co. | 26.5M | 0.17% | -24.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Brandes Investment Partners L.P. | 23.1M | 0.15% | +2.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Controlled affiliate of AB InBev; large free float trades as ADRs. Detailed 13F/insider breakdown pending.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagman Paulo Andre | See Remarks | Sell | 136.2K | $3.41 | 2026-05-05 | $464.6K |
| Cavalcanti De Lacerda Eduardo Braga | See Remarks | Sell | 152.4K | $2.85 | 2026-03-27 | $434.3K |
| Malik Parente Guilherme | See Remarks | Sell | 21K | $2.76 | 2026-03-24 | $57.9K |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-05-25Consensus
Defensive cash machine
FCF yield 36.5%, cash 39.4% of cap. Growth is the constraint and the $50B cap is outside the core sub-$10 mandate — tracked as a defensive comparator.
Ambev valuation questions
Is Ambev (ABEV) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Ambev trades below: $3.20 today versus a $3.39 estimate, about +6%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Ambev's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for ABEV is $3.39. Its valuation scenarios span bear $2.60, base $3.39, bull $4.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Ambev's forward P/E ratio?
Ambev (ABEV) trades at a forward P/E of 12.0×, and 3.1× trailing sales.
What is Ambev's market cap?
Ambev (ABEV) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $50.00B, and an enterprise value of $46.00B.
What is the bull and bear case for ABEV?
Valuation scenarios: bull $4.00, base $3.39, bear $2.60. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.