Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) valuation at a glance
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $13.87 versus a $19.25 estimate, that is a 39% upside.
- Price
- $13.87
- Fair value estimate
- $19.25
- Upside
- +39%
- Market cap
- $244M
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.5×
CompaniesNATR
NATR
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.
Consumer DefensiveSupplementsDirect SellingNet CashNo DebtSmall Cap
Overview
$13.87-2.0%
Market Cap
$244M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
13.5×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
5.7%
+5.7%SEC filings
Gross Margin
73.2%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
7.4%
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+38.8%
close of 1 September 2026
Conviction
3/5A debt-free supplements maker holding cash worth a third of its market value, at 3.8 times EBITDA on borrowings, half its price of six months ago.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 12d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
Value5/5
Future1/2
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Nature's Sunshine makes nutritional supplements and sells them to a sales force of independent consultants who resell them, and directly to consumers. It is mostly not an American business. Of $239.9M of sales in the first half of 2026, Asia was $105.2M, Europe $49.1M and North America $74.3M, so 69% of revenue comes from outside North America. The market capitalisation is $244.0M and the company holds $82.5M of cash with no borrowings at all, so a third of the price is cash and the operating business is being valued at $161.5M. That cash is not all reachable. $66.8M of it sits in foreign markets and the company says it may face withholding taxes and other repatriation restrictions. Against trailing EBITDA of $42.7M that is 3.78 times, and against $18.1M of free cash flow it is 8.93 times. Revenue has grown for three consecutive years, $445.3M then $454.4M then $480.1M, with the trailing twelve months at $492.0M, and operating income went from $18.7M to $20.1M to $24.7M over the same period. Gross margin is 73.16%. The shares are 50.7% below their level of six months ago. What the price is paying for is a 5.96% operating margin, which is what a 73% gross margin looks like after the cost of paying a distributor network, and a trailing operating cash flow that fell 22.5% against the prior full year. Two analysts publish on it, so there is no consensus to lean on and none is quoted here.
Bull Case
Cash is a third of the priceCash of $82.5M against a $244.0M market capitalisation, with no borrowings. The $21.4M the data feed reports as debt is operating lease liabilities, $4.4M current and $17.0M non-current, and the last of its borrowings, $1.2M, was cleared during 2023.
ValuationEnterprise value on borrowings is $161.5M against $42.7M of trailing EBITDA, which is 3.78 times, and 8.93 times $18.1M of free cash flow.
Revenue is growingRevenue was $445.3M in 2023, $454.4M in 2024 and $480.1M in 2025, up 5.7% in the latest year, with the trailing twelve months at $492.0M. Nothing here is melting.
Operating income is growing fasterOperating income went from $18.7M to $20.1M to $24.7M, up 22.9% in the latest year on revenue up 5.7%, so the margin is widening from a low base.
Buybacks are acceleratingThe company spent $6.4M on its own stock in 2023, $8.9M in 2024 and $16.3M in 2025. The 2025 figure is 6.7% of the current market capitalisation.
Balance sheet strengthCurrent assets of $178.4M against current liabilities of $68.7M is a current ratio of 2.60, on total assets of $259.8M and equity of $169.3M. A $25.0M revolving facility and a separate capital credit agreement were both undrawn at 30 June 2026.
Bear Case
The margin is thin where it countsGross margin is 73.16% and the operating margin is 5.96%. The distance between the two is the cost of the selling network, and it means a small move in distributor economics moves operating income a long way.
Cash generation went backwardsTrailing operating cash flow is $27.4M against $35.3M for the 2025 full year, down 22.5%, and free cash flow is $18.1M against $28.8M. The half year is starker than the trailing figure makes it look. Operating activities used $1.0M in the six months to June 2026 against generating $6.9M in the same period of 2025. The company attributes it to the timing of payments and receipts on accrued liabilities, deferred revenue, income taxes and receivables, and the balance sheet agrees, with accrued liabilities down from $34.1M to $25.8M and deferred revenue from $5.8M to $2.0M.
Nobody covers itTwo analysts publish on this company. There is no consensus estimate worth anchoring a scenario to, and none is used on this page. A small company with thin coverage can stay mispriced for a long time in either direction.
Direct selling is a structurally contested modelRevenue depends on recruiting and retaining independent distributors. The filings disclose the model plainly, but nothing in them settles whether the channel grows or shrinks over a decade, and that question dominates any terminal value.
Size and liquidityA $244.0M market capitalisation on 17.6 million shares. The public float was $211.3M as measured on 30 June 2025. Position sizing, not the thesis, is the binding constraint for most buyers.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$244M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$162M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$492M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
13.5×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
–
close of 1 September 2026
P/S (TTM)
0.5×
SEC filings
P/B
1.4×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
3.8×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
5.7%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
73.2%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
6.0%
SEC filings
Net Margin
3.7%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$18M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
7.4%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
2.6×
SEC filings
Short Interest
–
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Institutional Own.
–
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Insider Own.
–
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Shares Out.
17.6M
SEC filings
Float
–
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$12.65
Base$19.25
Bull$25.15
Now $13.87
Bear Case
$12.65
The cash flow shortfall proves to be the trend rather than a working capital swing and EBITDA settles at $35.0M. A small direct seller with a flat top line is paid 4.0 times, an enterprise value of $140.0M. Add $82.5M of net cash, giving $222.5M over 17.595520 million shares. The cash is what stops this case being materially worse than the current price.
Base Case
$19.25
EBITDA holds at the $42.7M the trailing year produced and the market pays 6.0 times on borrowings, which is undemanding for a business growing revenue in the mid single digits. Enterprise value $256.2M plus $82.5M of net cash is $338.7M over 17.595520 million shares. This asks for no growth beyond what has already happened.
Bull Case
$25.15
Revenue growth continues at the mid single digit rate, the operating margin keeps widening as it has for three years, and EBITDA reaches $48.0M. On a demonstrated record the market pays 7.5 times, an enterprise value of $360.0M, plus $82.5M of net cash, giving $442.5M over 17.595520 million shares. That is still below the price of six months ago.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATR | $0.24B | 13.5× | 0.5× | 3.8× | +5.7% | 73.2% | 3.7% |
| SBC | $0.42B | 8.6× | 2.4× | 4.3× | -15.5% | 71.8% | 28.0% |
| MH | $2.49B | 70.5× | – | 7.5× | – | – | – |
Financials
| Line Item | 2024 | 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales Third consecutive year of growth, from $445.3M in 2023. Trailing twelve months $492.0M | $454.4M | $480.1M | +5.7% |
| Gross profit Gross margin 71.5% to 72.4% on the fiscal year | $324.7M | $347.7M | +7.1% |
| Operating income Up 22.9% on revenue up 5.7%, so the margin is widening | $20.1M | $24.7M | +22.9% |
| Net income | $7.7M | $19.5M | +153.2% |
| Operating cash flow Trailing twelve months is $27.4M, below the 2025 full year | $25.3M | $35.3M | +39.5% |
| Capital expenditure | $11.0M | $6.5M | -40.9% |
| Free cash flow Trailing twelve months is $18.1M | $14.3M | $28.8M | +101.4% |
| Share repurchases Against $6.4M in 2023 | $8.9M | $16.3M | +83.1% |
| Line Item | 30 Jun 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $82.5M | 33.8% of the market capitalisation, but only $15.7M of it held in the US |
| Borrowings | $0.0M | A $25.0M revolver and a capital credit line, both undrawn at 30 June 2026 |
| Operating lease liabilities | $21.4M | $4.4M current and $17.0M non-current. Real, but not debt |
| Total assets | $259.8M | Against equity of $169.3M |
| Current ratio | 2.60 | Current assets $178.4M against current liabilities $68.7M |
Cash flow pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Fiscal years end 31 December. Figures come from the Form 10-K for 2025 and the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, confirmed against SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0000275053. Enterprise multiples are struck on borrowings rather than the data feed's Total Debt line, because that line is entirely operating leases for this company and EBITDA is measured after rent. Peer rows are recomputed from each company's own raw statements on the same date and on the same borrowings basis, and are healthcare and wellness adjacent rather than exact comparables, because no listed direct seller of similar size was in the screened set. Revenue growth is left empty for the peers because their trailing years cannot be built on the same basis. FY2025 Form 10-K, consolidated financial statements ↗
Catalysts
Aug 6 '26
Earningshigh relevance
The half year cover showed 17.6 million shares and $82.5M of cash
The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 reported 17,595,520 shares outstanding as of 24 July 2026, cash of $82.5M, total assets of $259.8M and equity of $169.3M, with operating lease liabilities of $4.4M current and $17.0M non-current and no borrowings.
Mar 10 '26
Earningshigh relevance
A third year of revenue growth and operating income up 22.9%
Net sales for 2025 were $480.1M against $454.4M, and $445.3M in 2023. Operating income was $24.7M against $20.1M and net income $19.5M against $7.7M. Operating cash flow was $35.3M and capital spending $6.5M, leaving $28.8M of free cash.
Mar 10 '26
Buyback
Buybacks nearly doubled to $16.3M
The company spent $16.3M on its own stock in 2025 against $8.9M in 2024 and $6.4M in 2023. The 2025 figure is 6.7% of the current market capitalisation.
Mar 2 '26
Price
The shares reached $28.14 and then halved
The intraday high over the year to 1 September 2026 was $28.14 on 2 March 2026 and the low was $12.97 on 31 October 2025. The close of $13.87 is 50.7% below that high and 7% above the low. The filings published since the high show revenue and operating income both higher.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing operating cash flow is 22.5% below the prior full year. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | Operating cash flow for the twelve months to 30 June 2026 is $27.4M against $35.3M for the 2025 full year, and free cash flow is $18.1M against $28.8M. Operating income over the same period rose. Earnings improving while the cash behind them falls is the pattern that most often precedes a disappointing year, and nothing on this page resolves whether it is a working capital swing or a change in the business. |
| The operating margin is 5.96% against a 73.16% gross margin. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | Nearly 67 points of margin are consumed between gross profit and operating income, almost all of it the cost of the selling network and the overhead behind it. On $492.0M of revenue a one point move in that spread is worth $4.9M against $29.3M of operating income. The valuation is cheap on EBITDA precisely because the operating line is this sensitive. |
| Two analysts publish on this company. | Coverage | medium | Certain | There is no consensus estimate worth anchoring a scenario range to, and this page quotes none. The scenarios here are built from the company's own trailing EBITDA and stated multiples instead. Thin coverage cuts both ways. It is part of why a debt free business with a third of its value in cash trades at 3.78 times EBITDA, and it is also why nothing forces the gap to close. |
| Revenue depends on recruiting and retaining independent distributors. | Structural | medium | Likely | The direct selling model is disclosed plainly in the filings and it is the whole distribution system. It is also a model under sustained regulatory and demographic pressure across the industry. The filings show three years of growth, which argues the channel is working here, but they cannot settle what it looks like over a decade, and that question dominates any terminal value. |
| The market capitalisation is $244.0M on 17.6 million shares. | Liquidity | medium | Certain | The public float was $211.3M as measured on 30 June 2025. For most buyers the binding constraint is position size and the ability to exit, not the thesis. A company this size can also stay mispriced for years without any mechanism forcing a re-rating. |
| A voluntary disclosure to OFAC over past US trade controls compliance is still open. | Regulatory | High | Certain | The company began an internal investigation in November 2024 into its past compliance with US trade controls, filed an initial voluntary self-disclosure with the Bureau of Industry and Security and, in April 2025, one with the Office of Foreign Asset Control. Final disclosures were filed on 5 September 2025. BIS closed its matter without further action. The OFAC disclosure remains pending. The company estimates the conduct involved less than one percent of net revenue in each of the last three fiscal years, and states it cannot estimate any loss, so no provision has been made. The exposure is disclosed as unresolved and this page cannot size it either. |
| Only $15.7M of the $82.5M of cash is held in the United States. | Balance sheet | High | Certain | The remaining $66.8M sits in foreign markets and the company states it may be subject to withholding taxes and other restrictions related to repatriation before it can be used. The scenarios on this page add the full $82.5M to enterprise value, which is the conventional treatment and is what makes the cash look like a third of the price. A buyer who assumes a repatriation cost on the offshore portion should mark all three cases down accordingly. The cash is real and it is not all in reach. |
| Sixty nine percent of revenue comes from outside North America. | Concentration | medium | Certain | Of $239.9M of net sales in the six months to June 2026, Asia was $105.2M or 43.9%, Europe $49.1M or 20.5%, North America $74.3M or 31.0% and Latin America and other $11.3M. The company is more an Asian and European business than an American one. That brings currency translation directly into the reported numbers, it sits alongside the trade controls matter above, and it means the demand picture that matters is not the US consumer. |
| The peer set is adjacent rather than comparable. | Data | Low | Certain | No listed direct seller of similar size appeared in the screened set, so the comparison rows are healthcare and wellness adjacent businesses recomputed on the same basis and the same date. They establish that the enterprise multiple here is low against that group. They do not establish what a direct seller should trade at, and the reader should treat the peer table as context rather than as a target. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$13.14$14.02$27.80
RSI (14)
29
oversold
50-Day MA
$18.30
-23.4%below
200-Day MA
$22.27
-37.0%below
Avg Vol (30d)
214K
-57%vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. closing prices, 252 sessions to the last close; average volume over the last 30 sessions
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
There were 17,595,520 shares outstanding on the Form 10-Q cover as of 24 July 2026, against 17,584,871 on the first quarter cover in April 2026, so the count is broadly flat despite $16.3M of repurchases in 2025, which implies issuance for compensation offsetting most of the buyback in the interim period. The public float was $211,304,715 as measured on 30 June 2025 for the annual report cover, against $183,438,927 a year earlier. Shareholders equity including any non-controlling portion was $169.3M at 30 June 2026 on total assets of $259.8M, and $82.5M of that asset base is cash. The company cleared the last of its borrowings, $1.2M, during 2023 and has carried none since.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATR | $0.24B | 13.5× | 0.5× | 3.8× | +5.7% | 73.2% | 3.7% |
| SBC | $0.42B | 8.6× | 2.4× | 4.3× | -15.5% | 71.8% | 28.0% |
| MH | $2.49B | 70.5× | – | 7.5× | – | – | – |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-02Recomputed from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC XBRL
A third of the market value is cash and none of it is borrowed
The market capitalisation at the 1 September close is $244.0M on 17,595,520 shares. Cash is $82.5M, which is 33.8% of it. A data feed reports $21.4M of Total Debt, and the balance sheet shows operating lease liabilities of $4.4M current and $17.0M non-current summing to exactly that, with SEC carrying no long-term debt figure for the company since 2022. So enterprise value on borrowings is $161.5M and the operating business is priced at 3.78 times trailing EBITDA of $42.7M. Including the leases it is 4.29 times. Both figures are given because the choice of basis is the reader's, but EBITDA here is struck after rent, so the borrowings figure is the consistent one.
2026-09-02FY2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, cross-checked against SEC XBRL
Three years of growth, and what happened to the cash
Net sales were $445.3M in 2023, $454.4M in 2024 and $480.1M in 2025, and the trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 is $492.0M. Operating income over the same three years was $18.7M, $20.1M and $24.7M, so it grew 22.9% in the latest year against revenue up 5.7% and the fiscal year margin widened from 4.42% to 5.15%. That is the bull case and it is real. Set against it, operating activities USED $1.0M in the six months to June 2026 against generating $6.9M in the same half of 2025, which is why the trailing figure of $27.4M sits below the $35.3M the 2025 year produced. The company names the cause in its own liquidity discussion, being reduced net income and the timing of payments and receipts on accrued liabilities, deferred revenue, income taxes and receivables. The balance sheet carries the same story. Accrued liabilities fell from $34.1M at the year end to $25.8M and deferred revenue from $5.8M to $2.0M, together $12.1M of cash going out through working capital rather than through the income statement. That reading makes the divergence a timing effect rather than margin erosion, which is the more benign of the two explanations, and it is the company's own account rather than an inference. It still has to reverse for the trailing cash figure to recover.
2026-09-02Daily price series for the year to 1 September 2026
The price halved while the filings improved
The intraday high over the year was $28.14 on 2 March 2026 and the low $12.97 on 31 October 2025. The close of $13.87 sits 50.7% below the high and 7% above the low. Between the high and now the company filed a first quarter and a second quarter, and reported revenue and operating income both higher than the comparable periods. That does not make the decline wrong, since the market may be pricing the cash flow divergence above, but it does mean the fall is not explained by the reported numbers deteriorating.
Sources
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. valuation questions
Is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. trades below: $13.87 today versus a $19.25 estimate, about +39%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for NATR is $19.25. Its valuation scenarios span bear $12.65, base $19.25, bull $25.15. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s market cap?
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $244M, and an enterprise value of $162M.
What is the bull and bear case for NATR?
Valuation scenarios: bull $25.15, base $19.25, bear $12.65. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.