Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) valuation at a glance
Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $81.26 versus a $102.44 estimate, that is a 26% upside.
- Price
- $81.26
- Fair value estimate
- $102.44
- Upside
- +26%
- Market cap
- $3.20B
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.5×
CompaniesSIG
SIG
Signet Jewelers Limited
Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailJewelleryNet CashBuybackLease Heavy
Overview
$81.26-1.2%
Market Cap
$3.20B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
10.9×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
1.6%
+1.6%SEC filings
Gross Margin
38.9%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
17.8%
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+26.1%
close of 1 September 2026
Conviction
4/5The largest specialty jeweller at 4.9 times EBITDA on borrowings, holding net cash worth 18.9% of its market value and no debt at all, 26% below its high.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 12d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
Value5/5
Future1/2
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Signet runs nine banners, among them Kay, Zales, Jared, Diamonds Direct, Banter by Piercing Pagoda, James Allen, Blue Nile and Peoples in Canada. The 10-K calls Kay the largest specialty retail jewelry brand in the US by sales, Zales the third largest and Jared the fifth, and puts Signet's own share of an approximately $63bn US jewelry and watch market at 8.5% in calendar 2025. It describes the industry as highly fragmented and competitive. The market prices the company as a mall tenant in structural decline. The balance sheet says something else. It carries no borrowings at all. The $1,223.6M the data feed reports as debt is entirely capitalised operating leases, and against $602.8M of cash that leaves net cash worth 18.9% of the market capitalisation. Enterprise value on borrowings is $2,593.1M against $527.1M of trailing EBITDA and $568.0M of free cash flow, so the business is priced at 4.9 times EBITDA and 4.6 times the cash it actually produces, while the free cash flow yield on the equity is 17.8%. Operating income recovered from $110.7M in the year to February 2025 to $393.1M in the year to January 2026, and the redeemable preferred was retired, so the $96.8M of preferred dividends that sat ahead of the common in the prior year is now zero. What the price is paying for is a 5.6% operating margin on a revenue line still 5.0% below where it was two years ago, and $1,223.6M of lease obligations that are not debt but are not optional either.
Bull Case
Balance sheetNo borrowings. The 10-Q states the company had $602.8M of cash and no outstanding borrowings on its asset-based revolving facility at 2 May 2026, with $1.1bn of available capacity undrawn. Net cash is 18.9% of the market capitalisation and SEC carries no long-term debt tag for the company at all.
ValuationEnterprise value on borrowings is $2,593.1M, which is 4.92 times trailing EBITDA of $527.1M and 4.57 times free cash flow of $568.0M.
Cash generationOperating cash flow of $709.4M against $141.4M of capital spending leaves $568.0M of free cash, a yield of 17.8% on the equity.
Earnings recoveryOperating income went from $110.7M in the year to February 2025 to $393.1M in the year to January 2026, and net income from $61.2M to $294.4M on a revenue line that rose 1.6%.
The preferred is goneThe redeemable convertible preferred was fully redeemed in the year to February 2025 for $813.8M of cash, and $147.8M of Senior Notes were repaid in the same year. The preferred charge against income available to common was $96.8M that year and is zero now. The balance sheet reached its present state by paying for it.
Share countThe company spent $205.2M on buybacks in the latest year. The cover count went from 40,684,442 in November 2025 to 40,067,774 in March 2026 to 39,329,783 in May 2026.
Bear Case
Thin marginThe operating margin is 5.60%. On $6,825.6M of revenue a two point move in gross margin is worth more than a third of operating income, so the multiple rests on a narrow spread.
Leases are not debt but are not optionalOperating lease liabilities are $1,223.6M, $292.1M of it current. Including them, enterprise value is $3,816.7M and the EBITDA multiple is 7.24 rather than 4.92. Excluding them is correct because EBITDA is struck after rent, but the obligation is real and it is roughly 38% of the market capitalisation.
Revenue has not recoveredRevenue was $7,171.1M in the year to February 2024, $6,703.8M to February 2025 and $6,813.6M to January 2026. The latest year grew 1.6% and the base is still 5.0% below where it was two years ago.
The earnings series is noisyNet income was $810.4M in the year to February 2024 against operating income of $621.5M, so that year carried a large item below the operating line. Three-year average earnings are not a safe anchor here and the multiple should be read against the latest year and the cash flow.
Mall exposureThe store base is concentrated in North American shopping centres, which is the format carrying the most secular pressure in retail. Nothing in the filings resolves whether the recovery in operating income is cyclical or structural.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$3.20B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$2.59B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$6.83B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
10.9×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
–
close of 1 September 2026
P/S (TTM)
0.5×
SEC filings
P/B
1.7×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
4.9×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
1.6%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
38.9%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
5.6%
SEC filings
Net Margin
4.3%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$568M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
17.8%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.6×
SEC filings
Short Interest
–
Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Institutional Own.
–
Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Insider Own.
–
Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Shares Out.
39.3M
SEC filings
Float
–
Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$56.01
Base$102.44
Bull$137.37
Now $81.26
Bear Case
$56.01
The margin recovery proves cyclical and EBITDA falls back toward $400M. A shrinking mall based retailer is paid 4.0 times, an enterprise value of $1,600M. Add the $602.8M of net cash, giving $2,202.8M over 39.329783 million shares. The net cash is what stops this case being worse.
Base Case
$102.44
EBITDA holds near the $527.1M the trailing year produced and the market pays 6.5 times on borrowings, which is still below where profitable specialty retail trades. Enterprise value $3,426.2M plus $602.8M of net cash is $4,028.9M over 39.329783 million shares. This case needs no revenue growth, only that the current margin holds.
Bull Case
$137.37
Revenue returns toward the $7,171.1M of two years ago at the current margin and EBITDA reaches $600M. On a settled outlook the market pays 8.0 times, an enterprise value of $4,800M, plus $602.8M of net cash, giving $5,402.8M over 39.329783 million shares.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG | $3.20B | 10.9× | 0.5× | 4.9× | +1.6% | 38.9% | 4.3% |
| KSS | $2.19B | 8.0× | 0.1× | 3.9× | -4.3% | 40.5% | 1.8% |
| CRI | $1.18B | 13.1× | 0.4× | 6.3× | – | 44.7% | 3.1% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY to Feb 2025 | FY to Jan 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue Still 5.0% below the $7,171.1M of the year to February 2024 | $6,703.8M | $6,813.6M | +1.6% |
| Gross profit Gross margin 39.17% to 39.55% on the fiscal year | $2,625.6M | $2,694.6M | +2.6% |
| Operating income The single largest change on the page. Margin 1.65% to 5.77% | $110.7M | $393.1M | +255.1% |
| Net income | $61.2M | $294.4M | +381% |
| Preferred charge to common Cash paid on the preferred was $18.5M, the rest being the deemed dividend on redemption. The preferred was fully redeemed for $813.8M of cash in the same year | $96.8M | $0.0M | -100% |
| Operating cash flow | $590.9M | $678.8M | +14.9% |
| Capital expenditure | $153.0M | $153.5M | +0.3% |
| Share repurchases | $138.0M | $205.2M | +48.7% |
| Line Item | 2 May 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $602.8M | Down from $874.8M at the 31 January year end |
| Borrowings | $0.0M | No outstanding borrowings on the ABL, with $1.1bn of capacity undrawn |
| Net cash | $602.8M | 18.9% of the market capitalisation |
| Operating lease liabilities | $1,223.6M | $292.1M current and $931.5M non-current. Real, but not debt |
| Total assets | $5,728.9M | Against $1,897.2M of shareholders equity |
| Current ratio | 1.62 | Current assets $2,816.3M against current liabilities $1,743.4M |
Cash flow pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Fiscal years end on the Saturday nearest 31 January. Figures come from the Form 10-K for the year ended 31 January 2026 and the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 May 2026, and were confirmed against SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0000832988. Every enterprise multiple on this page is struck on borrowings rather than on the data feed's Total Debt line, because that line is entirely capitalised leases for this company and EBITDA is measured after rent. Peer rows are recomputed from each company's own raw statements on the same date and on the same borrowings basis. Revenue growth is left empty for the two peers because their fourth quarters are not separately tagged, so a trailing year cannot be built for them on the row's own basis. FY2026 Form 10-K, consolidated financial statements ↗
Catalysts
Jun 2 '26
Earningshigh relevance
The first quarter cover showed 39.3 million shares
The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 May 2026 reported 39,329,783 shares outstanding as of 29 May 2026, against 40,067,774 on the annual report cover in March and 40,684,442 in November 2025. Cash was $602.8M with no borrowings.
Mar 19 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Operating income more than tripled
Operating income for the year ended 31 January 2026 was $393.1M against $110.7M, on revenue of $6,813.6M against $6,703.8M. Net income was $294.4M against $61.2M. Operating cash flow was $678.8M and capital spending $153.5M.
Mar 19 '26
Capital structurehigh relevance
Preferred dividends fell to zero
Redeemable preferred stock dividends were $96.8M in the year to February 2025 and zero in the year to January 2026. A claim ranking ahead of the common was removed, which is why net income and income available to common moved by different amounts across the two years.
Mar 19 '26
Buyback
Buybacks stepped up to $205.2M
The company paid $205.2M for its own stock in the year to January 2026 against $138.0M the prior year and $139.3M the year before that. Dividends paid on the common were $51.9M.
May 19 '26
Price
The shares set a 52 week low at $71.34
The intraday low over the year to 1 September 2026 was $71.34 on 19 May 2026 and the intraday high was $109.34 on 22 October 2025. The close of $81.26 is 25.7% below that high.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The operating margin is 5.60%. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | Trailing operating income of $381.9M sits on $6,825.6M of revenue. A two percentage point move in gross margin is worth about $137M, which is more than a third of operating income. The valuation depends on a narrow spread holding, and the same narrowness is why operating income could triple in one year from a low base. |
| Operating lease liabilities are $1,223.6M and every multiple here excludes them. | Balance sheet | High | Certain | The liability is $292.1M current and $931.5M non-current. Excluding it from enterprise value is the correct treatment, because EBITDA under ASC 842 is struck after rent and counting the liability as debt would charge twice for the same obligation. It is still a fixed claim on the business worth roughly 38% of the market capitalisation, and on the including basis the EBITDA multiple is 7.24 rather than 4.92. A reader who prefers that basis should use the higher number. |
| Revenue is 5.0% below the level of two years ago. | Demand | High | Certain | The top line was $7,171.1M in the year to February 2024, fell to $6,703.8M, and recovered to $6,813.6M. One year of 1.6% growth follows one year of a 6.5% decline. The base case on this page assumes the current revenue level holds and asks for no growth, and nothing in the filings proves it will hold. |
| The three year earnings series is not a usable anchor. | Earnings quality | medium | Certain | Net income was $810.4M in the year to February 2024 against operating income of $621.5M, so that year carried a large item below the operating line. It then fell to $61.2M and recovered to $294.4M. An average of the three would be meaningless. The multiple on this page is struck on the latest year and cross-checked against free cash flow of $568.0M for that reason. |
| The store base is concentrated in North American shopping centres. | Structural | medium | Likely | Kay, Zales and Jared are predominantly mall formats, which is the part of physical retail under the most sustained pressure. The filings do not separate how much of the operating income recovery came from cost reduction against how much came from demand, so whether the improvement is cyclical or structural is not resolvable from them. |
| Cash fell $272.0M in a single quarter. | Working capital | medium | Certain | Cash was $874.8M at the 31 January year end and $602.8M at 2 May 2026. The cash flow statement decomposes the $271.2M decrease it reports as $144.7M used in operating activities, $23.9M in investing and $102.6M in financing. So a little over half is the seasonal working capital unwind that follows a fourth quarter ending in January, and $95.7M of it is the company choosing to keep returning capital during the draw, being $82.7M of buybacks and $13.0M of dividends. It is not a debt repayment, because there is no debt, and it is not an acquisition. The consequence for this page is that the $602.8M of net cash is measured at a seasonal low, and that the company was buying stock into that low. |
| The published share count differs from the data feed. | Data | Low | Certain | The feed reports 38,849,783 shares. The Form 10-Q cover reports 39,329,783 as of 29 May 2026. This page uses the filing, so its market capitalisation is $3,195.9M. The difference is 1.2% and it moves every per share figure on the page. |
| The 52 week high here does not match the data feed. | Data | Low | Certain | The feed reports a 52 week high of $110.20. The daily series for the year to 1 September 2026, 252 sessions, has an intraday high of $109.34 on 22 October 2025 and a closing high of $105.18. The page uses $109.34, so the discount to the high is 25.7% rather than the 26.3% the feed would give. The low agrees to within a few cents, $71.34 intraday against the feed's $71.62. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$73.94$85.30$106.00
RSI (14)
48.2
neutral
50-Day MA
$88.17
-3.3%below
200-Day MA
$88.66
-3.8%below
Avg Vol (30d)
663K
+22%vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. closing prices, 252 sessions to the last close; average volume over the last 30 sessions
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, cover page and condensed consolidated balance sheets
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
There were 39,329,783 shares outstanding on the Form 10-Q cover as of 29 May 2026, against 40,067,774 on the annual report cover in March 2026 and 40,684,442 in November 2025, so the count fell by 1,354,659 shares, or 3.3%, over roughly six months. The company spent $205.2M on repurchases in the year to January 2026 and paid $51.9M of dividends on the common. The public float was $3,054.1M as measured on 2 August 2025 for the annual report cover, which is close to the current market capitalisation because the share count and the price have both fallen since. The capital structure changed materially in the latest year. Redeemable preferred dividends were $96.8M in the year to February 2025 and zero in the year to January 2026, so the common no longer sits behind a preferred claim.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG | $3.20B | 10.9× | 0.5× | 4.9× | +1.6% | 38.9% | 4.3% |
| KSS | $2.19B | 8.0× | 0.1× | 3.9× | -4.3% | 40.5% | 1.8% |
| CRI | $1.18B | 13.1× | 0.4× | 6.3× | – | 44.7% | 3.1% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-02Recomputed from the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 May 2026 and SEC XBRL
The debt on this company is not debt
A data feed reports $1,223.6M of Total Debt for Signet. The balance sheet carries $292.1M of current and $931.5M of non-current operating lease liabilities, which sum to exactly that figure, and SEC XBRL carries no long-term debt tag for the company in any recent period. The borrowings are zero. Read on the feed's line the company appears to hold $620.8M of net debt when it in fact holds $602.8M of net cash, and its enterprise value comes out 47% too high. Every multiple on this page is struck on borrowings. The including-leases figures are given in the risks section for a reader who prefers them, and on that basis the EBITDA multiple is 7.24 rather than 4.92.
2026-09-02FY2026 Form 10-K cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts
Why the earnings jumped and what part of it repeats
Operating income went from $110.7M to $393.1M, a rise of $282.4M, on revenue up $109.8M. That is a margin story rather than a demand story, and it comes off a low base, since the prior year margin was 1.65%. Separately, the charge for the redeemable preferred fell from $96.8M to zero because it was fully redeemed during the year to February 2025 for $813.8M of cash, alongside $147.8M repaid on Senior Notes. Only $18.5M of that $96.8M was cash dividends, the remainder being the deemed dividend on redemption. None of it touches net income, but it changes what reaches the common, and it is why a company with no debt today had materially less cash two years ago. The two changes are independent and both are permanent in the sense that neither reverses on its own. What is not settled by the filings is whether a 5.77% fiscal year operating margin is the new level or the top of a cycle, and the answer decides whether the base case on this page is conservative or optimistic.
2026-09-02Recomputed from the trailing twelve months to 2 May 2026
The cash is the argument
Trailing operating cash flow is $709.4M against capital spending of $141.4M, leaving $568.0M of free cash flow. Against a market capitalisation of $3,195.9M that is a yield of 17.8%, and against an enterprise value of $2,593.1M on borrowings it is 4.57 times. Free cash flow exceeds net income of $292.6M by 1.94 times, which for a retailer with $153.5M of annual capital spending and heavy depreciation is the expected direction rather than a warning. The cash conversion, not the earnings multiple, is the reason this name reaches a shortlist.
Sources
Signet Jewelers Limited valuation questions
Is Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Signet Jewelers Limited trades below: $81.26 today versus a $102.44 estimate, about +26%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Signet Jewelers Limited's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for SIG is $102.44. Its valuation scenarios span bear $56.01, base $102.44, bull $137.37. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Signet Jewelers Limited's market cap?
Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $3.20B, and an enterprise value of $2.59B.
What is the bull and bear case for SIG?
Valuation scenarios: bull $137.37, base $102.44, bear $56.01. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.