Kohl's Corporation (KSS) valuation at a glance
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $19.31 versus a $23.75 estimate, that is a 23% upside.
- Price
- $19.31
- Fair value estimate
- $23.75
- Upside
- +23%
- Market cap
- $2.19B
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.1×
CompaniesKSS
KSS
Kohl's Corporation
Consumer CyclicalDepartment storeSecular declineFinance leasesHeavily shortedCash generative
Overview
$19.31+8.4%
Market Cap
$2.19B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
-4.3%
-4.3%SEC filings
Gross Margin
40.5%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
48.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+23.0%
internal, recomputed from filings
Conviction
2/5A department store priced at 3.91 times EBITDA and 0.14 times sales that threw off $1,052M of free cash flow against a $2,190M market capitalisation, while revenue has fallen every year for four years and capital spending runs at half of depreciation.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 11d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 55/100
Value5/5
Future0/2
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Kohl's generated $1,052M of free cash flow in the twelve months to 2 May 2026 against a market capitalisation of $2,190M, a yield of 48%. That number is real and it is not what it looks like. Depreciation ran at $699M while capital spending ran at $346M, so the company is consuming its asset base faster than it replaces it, and revenue has fallen in each of the last four years, from $18,098M to $15,527M. The enterprise value is also not what a data feed reports. The feed shows one lease line of $5,146M; the filing splits it into $2,719M of operating leases and $1,974M of finance leases, and only the operating half can be excluded from enterprise value, because EBITDA is struck after rent but adds back both halves of a finance lease cost. On borrowings alone the multiple is 2.40 times EBITDA. On the correct basis it is 3.91. The equity is the thin end of a capital structure carrying $2,932M of net debt against a $2,190M market capitalisation, which is why the scenarios below sit four times apart. What is being bought here is a declining but strongly cash-generative retailer at a price that assumes the decline continues, with 31.1% of the float sold short.
Bull Case
The cash is real and largeTrailing operating cash flow of $1,398M less capital spending of $346M gives $1,052M of free cash flow, 48.0% of the market capitalisation and 20.5% of enterprise value. Both figures reconcile to the filings to the dollar.
Priced at a seventh of salesMarket capitalisation of $2,190M against revenue of $15,461M is 0.14 times sales. Macy's, the closest listed comparable, trades at 0.26 times, Dillard's at 1.51 times and Burlington at 1.42 times.
Gross margin has heldGross margin is 40.5% on the trailing year against Macy's 40.3% and Dillard's 40.3%. The revenue decline has not so far come with the margin collapse that usually accompanies it.
The balance sheet is not distressedCash of $429M against borrowings of $1,387M, a current ratio of 1.48 and equity of $4,024M. The nearest thing to a solvency question is the finance lease book, and those obligations sit against the stores that generate the cash.
A third of the float is shortShort interest is 31.1% of a 111.2 million share float. Any operating result that is merely not worse than feared has a mechanical bid behind it.
Book value exceeds the market valueEquity of $4,024M against a $2,190M market capitalisation is 0.54 times book. The assets behind it are real estate and inventory of $2,897M rather than goodwill.
Bear Case
Four straight years of declineRevenue went $18,098M, $17,476M, $16,221M, $15,527M. That is a 14.2% fall over three years with no year of stabilisation, and nothing in the filings marks a turn.
Capital spending is half of depreciationDepreciation of $699M against capital spending of $346M. A store base is being run down, and part of what reaches the free cash flow line is deferred maintenance rather than earnings.
Net debt exceeds the market capitalisationNet debt of $2,932M against a $2,190M market value. The equity is 43% of the enterprise, so a one turn move in the EBITDA multiple is worth roughly $11.50 a share, or 60% of the price.
The operating margin is thinOperating income of $610M on revenue of $15,461M is 3.95%. At that level a two point gross margin loss removes half the operating profit, and the fixed lease base cannot be reduced at the same speed.
The cash flow is flattered by working capitalInventory fell $203M and payables rose $130M in the 2025 fiscal year, together roughly $333M of the $1,380M of operating cash flow. A drawdown can only be run once.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.19B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$5.12B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$15.46B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
[awaiting: no reliable consensus]
internal, recomputed from filings
P/S (TTM)
0.1×
SEC filings
P/B
0.5×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
3.9×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
-4.3%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
40.5%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
3.9%
SEC filings
Net Margin
1.8%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$1.05B
SEC filings
FCF Yield
48.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.8×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.5×
SEC filings
Short Interest
31.1%
Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page
Institutional Own.
[awaiting: feed reports 106.9%, which cannot be true]
Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page
Insider Own.
3.9%
Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page
Shares Out.
113.4M
SEC filings
Float
111.2M
Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$8.10
Base$23.75
Bull$35.87
Now $19.31
Bear Case
$8.10
The decline continues and the lease base does not shrink with it, so EBITDA settles at $1,100M. A shrinking department store is paid 3.5 times, an enterprise value of $3,850M. Take off net debt of $2,932M and the equity is $918M over 113.4 million shares. The debt, not the business, is what produces a 58% loss in this case.
Base Case
$23.75
Revenue keeps falling at low single digits but the margin holds and EBITDA settles at $1,250M against $1,309M today. A cash generative retailer in structural decline is paid 4.5 times, an enterprise value of $5,625M, less $2,932M of net debt, giving $2,693M of equity. The multiple, not the growth, is the whole of the return.
Bull Case
$35.87
Sephora and the Amazon returns partnership stabilise traffic, revenue flattens and EBITDA recovers to $1,400M. Paid 5.0 times, still below Macy's, that is $7,000M of enterprise value and $4,068M of equity. This case requires the top line to stop falling, which it has not done in four years.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSS | $2.19B | 8.0× | 0.1× | 3.9× | -4.3% | 40.5% | 1.8% |
| M | $5.93B | 9.2× | 0.3× | – | -3.5% | 40.3% | 2.8% |
| DDS | $9.91B | 17.4× | 1.5× | – | -1.6% | 40.3% | 8.7% |
| BURL | $16.45B | 27.0× | 1.4× | – | +10.5% | 43.9% | 5.3% |
| TJX | $145.39B | 26.5× | 2.4× | – | +4.0% | 31.0% | 9.1% |
| ROST | $74.63B | 34.8× | 3.3× | – | +3.7% | 27.7% | 9.4% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Fourth consecutive annual decline, from $18,098M in fiscal 2022. Trailing twelve months $15,461M | $16,221M | $15,527M | -4.3% |
| Gross profit Gross margin 38.1% to 40.5%, the one line moving the right way | $6,178M | $6,290M | +1.8% |
| Operating income Trailing twelve months $610M, an operating margin of 3.95% | $433M | $624M | +44.1% |
| Net income Trailing twelve months $273M | $109M | $272M | +149.5% |
| Depreciation and amortisation Falling as the asset base is not replaced | $743M | $700M | -5.8% |
| EBITDA Operating income plus depreciation. Trailing twelve months $1,309M | $1,176M | $1,324M | +12.6% |
| Line Item | 2 May 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | $429M | Against a $2,190M market capitalisation |
| Borrowings | $1,387M | Long term debt, no current portion |
| Finance lease liabilities | $1,974M | $79M current and $1,895M non-current, inside enterprise value |
| Operating lease liabilities | $2,719M | $95M current and $2,624M non-current, outside enterprise value |
| Net debt | $2,932M | Borrowings plus finance leases less cash, 134% of market capitalisation |
| Inventory | $2,897M | Fell $203M during fiscal 2025, a cash source that cannot repeat |
| Shareholders equity | $4,024M | 1.84 times the market capitalisation |
Cash flow pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Every figure below is the trailing twelve months to 2 May 2026, built as the fiscal year to 31 January 2026 less the quarter to 3 May 2025 plus the quarter to 2 May 2026, and each reconciles to SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0000885639. Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q and FY2025 Form 10-K ↗
Catalysts
Jun 4 '26
Filinghigh relevance
The Q1 cover reported 113.4 million shares and $429M of cash
The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 May 2026 reported 113,399,993 shares outstanding as of 29 May 2026, cash of $429M, long term debt of $1,387M, finance lease liabilities of $79M current and $1,895M non-current, operating lease liabilities of $95M current and $2,624M non-current, and shareholders equity of $4,024M.
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Whether the top line stops falling
The single number that decides between the bear and base cases is comparable sales. Revenue has fallen four years running and the base case assumes low single digit decline with the margin held, not a recovery.
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Whether inventory can keep funding the cash flow
Roughly $333M of fiscal 2025 operating cash flow came from a $203M inventory drawdown and a $130M rise in payables. Inventory at $2,897M cannot fall indefinitely, and when it stops the free cash flow yield falls with it.
FY2026
Capital
Whether capital spending returns toward depreciation
Capital spending of $346M against depreciation of $699M cannot persist without the store base degrading. A return toward $600M would remove roughly a quarter of the free cash flow while changing nothing about the earnings.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue has declined every year for four years with no stabilisation. | Business | High | Certain | Revenue went $18,098M in fiscal 2022, $17,476M, $16,221M and $15,527M in fiscal 2025, a 14.2% fall. Department stores are losing share to off price and online, and nothing in the filings marks a turn. The base case assumes the decline continues at a slower rate rather than reverses. |
| Capital spending runs at half of depreciation. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | Capital spending of $346M against depreciation of $699M on the trailing year. Part of the free cash flow that makes this company look cheap is deferred maintenance on the store base rather than surplus earnings, and the gap cannot be sustained indefinitely without the asset base degrading. |
| Net debt is 134% of the market capitalisation. | Balance sheet | High | Certain | Borrowings of $1,387M plus finance leases of $1,974M less cash of $429M is $2,932M against a $2,190M market value. The equity is 43% of the enterprise, so one turn of EBITDA multiple is roughly $11.50 a share, or 60% of the price. The scenarios on this page sit four times apart because of the debt, not because of disagreement about the business. |
| A data feed reports the lease book as one line and understates enterprise value by 63%. | Data | High | Certain | The feed shows $5,146M of capital lease obligations. The filing splits it into $2,719M of operating and $1,974M of finance leases. Stripping the whole line, as a screen naturally does, puts enterprise value at $3,148M and the multiple at 2.40 times rather than 3.91. Any screen that surfaced this company as the cheapest name available made that error. |
| Working capital supplied roughly a quarter of fiscal 2025 operating cash flow. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | Inventory fell $203M and payables rose $130M, together about $333M of the $1,380M reported. Neither repeats on its own, and the trailing free cash flow yield of 48% should be read as a figure that includes a one time release. |
| The operating margin is 3.95% and the cost base is largely fixed. | Business | High | High | Operating income of $610M on revenue of $15,461M. A two point loss of gross margin removes roughly half the operating profit, while $4,693M of lease obligations cannot be shed at the same speed as sales decline. |
| Short interest is 31.1% of the float. | Market | Medium | Certain | A third of the 111.2 million share float is sold short. That cuts both ways, providing a mechanical bid on any result that is not worse than feared and a persistent supply of sellers on any that is. |
| Institutional ownership cannot be verified. | Data | Low | Certain | The data feed reports institutions holding 106.9% of the shares, which cannot be true, so the field is left empty rather than published. Insider ownership of 3.9% comes from the same source and should be treated as approximate until read from the proxy. |
| A first pass page carrying no per-ticker gate at the time of writing. | Coverage | Medium | Certain | Every figure here was recomputed from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0000885639 and reconciles, but the page has not yet been through the line by line filing gate that ten other pages on this site carry. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$11.72$19.44$24.71
RSI (14)
57.9
neutral
50-Day MA
$18.29
+6.3%above
200-Day MA
$17.26
+12.6%above
Avg Vol (30d)
4.2M
-26%vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. closing prices, 252 sessions to the last close; average volume over the last 30 sessions
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q, cover page
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
Insiders hold about 3.9% on the data feed's figure. Institutional ownership is not published here because the same feed reports 106.9%, which cannot be true of any register, and no share can be held twice. Short interest is 31.1% of a 111,242,850 share float, one of the highest on this site. The share count of 113,399,993 is from the cover of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 May 2026, dated 29 May 2026, and is a single class of common stock.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSS | $2.19B | 8.0× | 0.1× | 3.9× | -4.3% | 40.5% | 1.8% |
| M | $5.93B | 9.2× | 0.3× | – | -3.5% | 40.3% | 2.8% |
| DDS | $9.91B | 17.4× | 1.5× | – | -1.6% | 40.3% | 8.7% |
| BURL | $16.45B | 27.0× | 1.4× | – | +10.5% | 43.9% | 5.3% |
| TJX | $145.39B | 26.5× | 2.4× | – | +4.0% | 31.0% | 9.1% |
| ROST | $74.63B | 34.8× | 3.3× | – | +3.7% | 27.7% | 9.4% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-03Recomputed from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0000885639
Why the screen said 2.40 times EBITDA and the filing says 3.91
A data feed reports one line for this company called capital lease obligations, and it reads $5,146M. The balance sheet at 2 May 2026 splits the same obligations into $95M current and $2,624M non-current operating leases, $2,719M together, and $79M current and $1,895M non-current finance leases, $1,974M together. The distinction decides the enterprise value. Under ASC 842 an operating lease cost sits inside operating expenses, so EBITDA is struck after it and counting the liability as debt would charge twice for the same obligation. A finance lease is different. Its cost is split into right of use asset amortisation and interest, and EBITDA adds both of them back, so the liability belongs in enterprise value exactly as borrowings do. Stripping the whole line, which is what a screen does when it sees one number, gives net debt of $958M, an enterprise value of $3,148M and a multiple of 2.40 times. Keeping the finance half gives net debt of $2,932M, an enterprise value of $5,122M and 3.91 times. The error is 63% and it runs in the direction that manufactures a bargain.
2026-09-03Recomputed from the FY2025 Form 10-K and the Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q
What the 48% free cash flow yield is actually made of
Trailing operating cash flow is $1,398M against net income of $273M, a ratio of 5.1 times that deserves an explanation rather than applause. Depreciation of $699M accounts for most of the gap and is a genuine non cash charge. Capital spending, however, is $346M, which is 49% of depreciation. A retailer replacing half of what it consumes is funding part of its free cash flow out of its store base, and the gap cannot run indefinitely without the estate degrading. Separately, the fiscal 2025 cash flow statement shows inventory falling $203M and payables rising $130M, together roughly $333M, or a quarter of that year's operating cash flow, from working capital rather than from trading. Inventory stands at $2,897M and can fall further, but not forever. Both adjustments point the same way. The cash is real, it reconciles to the filings to the dollar, and the sustainable figure is lower than 48% of the market capitalisation.
2026-09-03Recomputed from SEC XBRL company facts
The decline is the thesis, in both directions
Revenue has fallen in each of the last four fiscal years, $18,098M, $17,476M, $16,221M and $15,527M, a 14.2% decline with no year of stabilisation. Against that, gross margin rose from 38.1% to 40.5% and operating income rose from $433M to $624M in the most recent year, so the company has been shrinking profitably rather than collapsing. At 0.14 times sales against Macy's 0.26 the market is pricing the first fact and not the second. The base case on this page assumes the top line keeps falling at low single digits while the margin holds, which is what the last two years actually did, and pays 4.5 times EBITDA for it. Nothing here requires a recovery. What it does require is that the lease obligations, which total $4,693M across both kinds, do not outlast the sales that service them.
Sources
Kohl's Corporation valuation questions
Is Kohl's Corporation (KSS) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Kohl's Corporation trades below: $19.31 today versus a $23.75 estimate, about +23%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Kohl's Corporation's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for KSS is $23.75. Its valuation scenarios span bear $8.10, base $23.75, bull $35.87. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Kohl's Corporation's market cap?
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.19B, and an enterprise value of $5.12B.
What is the bull and bear case for KSS?
Valuation scenarios: bull $35.87, base $23.75, bear $8.10. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.