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Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) valuation at a glance
Price
$19.33
Forward P/E
13.3×
Market cap
$2.76B
AYA

Aya Gold & Silver

Basic MaterialsGoldSilverMiningMorocco

Overview

$19.33+1.2%
Compare
Market Cap
$2.76B
company filings (Jun 2026)
P/E (TTM)
35.9×
company filings (Jun 2026)
Rev Growth YoY
247.0%
+247%company filings (Jun 2026)
Gross Margin
54.9%
company filings (Jun 2026)
FCF Yield
2.0%
Calculated from company filings (Jun 2026)
Fair Value
Not established
internal forensic
Conviction
2/5
Morocco silver producer growing revenue +247%, but priced to perfection at an all-time high (14.95× sales vs 2–5× peers) with zero margin of safety.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-03
Quality Snowflake
Overall 67/100
ValueFuturePastHealthDividend
Value1/3
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.

Thesis

UNDER REVISION, 2 September 2026. The price to sales figure of 14.95 used in the thesis line, the bear case and the peer table cannot be produced from this page's own inputs. A market capitalisation of $2,760M over trailing revenue of $285.5M is 9.67 times, not 14.95. The conclusion that the shares are expensive against a 2 to 5 times peer range survives at the corrected figure, but the magnitude used to argue zero margin of safety is overstated by 55%, and the peer range itself carries no citation. ORIGINAL TEXT FOLLOWS. Aya Gold & Silver is a Morocco-focused silver producer whose revenue has compounded +247% YoY (TTM $285.5M) as the Zgounder mill ramped, with the Boumadine polymetallic project as the next growth leg. The forensic conclusion is that the extraordinary growth is real but fully priced: the stock sits at 99% of its all-time high on 14.95× sales versus 2–5× for precious-metals peers, leaving no margin of safety. The 'no dilution' narrative is also false, shares are up ~36% over three years via three bought-deal raises.
Bull Case
GrowthTTM revenue +247% to $285.5M; Q1 2026 revenue $117.3M (+55.8% QoQ) with $48.3M net income as Zgounder scaled.
OptionalityBoumadine growth project: $1.1B after-tax NPV (5%), 35.2% IRR, ~26.5M AgEq oz/yr over ~18 years; could materially expand production from 2027.
Balance SheetNet cash ~$71.4M ($171.7M cash vs $100.2M debt); 24.1% ROE and 30.5% net margin.
Bear Case
Valuation14.95× sales and 27.2× EV/EBITDA at 99% of the all-time high, peers trade 2–5× sales. Zero margin of safety.
Dilution'No dilution' claim is false: shares +36.2% over 3 years (105M→143M) via three bought-deal raises totalling $221M.
Funding GapBoumadine needs $405M initial capex vs ~$172M cash, likely more dilution; mining projects average >60% schedule slip and 30–40% cost overruns.
Cash FlowFree cash flow was negative four straight years (−$34M/−$99M/−$102M/−$4M, 2022–25); only Q1 2026 turned meaningfully positive (+$53.4M).

Key Metrics

Market Cap
$2.76B
company filings (Jun 2026)
Enterprise Value
$2.69B
Calculated from company filings (Jun 2026)
Revenue (TTM)
$286M
company filings (Jun 2026)
P/E (TTM)
35.9×
company filings (Jun 2026)
Forward P/E
13.3×
internal forensic
P/S (TTM)
company filings (Jun 2026)
P/B
6.4×
company filings (Jun 2026)
EV/EBITDA
27.2×
Calculated from company filings (Jun 2026)
PEG
Calculated from company filings (Jun 2026)
Revenue Growth
247.0%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Gross Margin
54.9%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Operating Margin
47.8%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Net Margin
30.5%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Free Cash Flow
$56M
company filings (Jun 2026)
FCF Yield
2.0%
Calculated from company filings (Jun 2026)
Debt / Equity
0.2×
company filings (Jun 2026)
Current Ratio
2.2×
company filings (Jun 2026)
Short Interest
company filings (Jun 2026)
Institutional Own.
42.2%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Insider Own.
3.4%
company filings (Jun 2026)
Shares Out.
143.0M
company filings (Jun 2026)
Float
142.8M
company filings (Jun 2026)

Valuation

Price vs Fair Value
Bear$12.00
Base$22.00
Bull$32.00
Now $19.33
Bear Case
$12.00
Silver ~$20; multiple compresses toward peer range
Base Case
$22.00
Silver $30–35; production ramps but priced-in (35% prob)
Bull Case
$32.00
Silver $35–40; Boumadine de-risks (25% prob)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$38M
FCF Yield
1.4%
Balance Sheet
$72M net cash
Rev CAGR
74%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from company filings (Jun 2026). A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
Historical multiples
YearP/EP/SEV/EBITDA
FY2218.2×58.8×
FY23162.8×20.9×63.3×
FY2425.0×
FY2544.8×10.1×20.0×
TTM ·34.4×10.4×18.8×
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
AYA$2.96B34.4×10.4×18.8×+247.0%55.0%30.0%
AG$9.33B32.0×6.3×11.2×+95.0%60.0%20.0%
PAAS$21.48B16.1×5.4×10.6×+49.0%56.0%32.0%
CDE$19.23B15.0×7.5×14.1×+138.0%59.0%31.0%
HL$11.17B24.1×6.9×12.4×+100.0%60.0%17.0%
EXK$2.70B4.4×13.2×+230.0%40.0%-3.0%

Financials

Income statement
QuarterRevenueNet IncomeFCF
Q1 2025$33.8M$6.9M-$6.6M
Q2 2025$38.6M$8.8M-$4.4M
Q3 2025$54.3M$12.4M-$2.2M
Q4 2025$75.3M$17.4M+$9.0M
Q1 2026$117.3M$48.3M+$53.4M
Balance sheet
ItemValueNotes
Cash$171.7Mn/a
Total Debt$100.2Mn/a
Net Cash$71.4Mn/a
Shares Outstanding143.0Mwas 105.0M in 2022 (+36.2%)
'No dilution' claim is FALSE: +36.2% over 3 years via three bought-deal raises ($221M total). FCF negative four straight years through 2025.
Cash flow
Dilution YearSharesChange
2022105.0Mbase
2023122.4M+16.5% (bought-deal $75M @ C$4.30)
2024130.8M+6.9% ($46M @ C$8.50 + ATM)
2025142.0M+8.6% (bought-deal $100M @ C$10.50, Boumadine)
2026 YTD143.0M+0.7% (options/RSUs)
Quarterly revenue/net-income/FCF trend from company filings (USD). Hockey-stick ramp as Zgounder mill scaled; FCF only turned positive in Q1 2026.

Catalysts

Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026 earnings
Watch whether the Q1 FCF inflection holds as Zgounder runs at capacity.
H2 '27
Operationshigh relevance
Boumadine construction → first production
Construction began Q4 2025; production targeted H2 2027. Slippage/cost-overrun risk is high.

Risks

Risk matrix
RiskCategorySeverityProbabilityImpact on Thesis
Priced to perfection at all-time highMarket/MacroHighHigh14.95× sales vs peers 2–5×; any silver pullback or guidance miss re-rates sharply.
Boumadine funding gap → further dilutionExecutionHighMedium$405M capex vs ~$172M cash; serial diluter history points to another raise.
Mining project execution riskExecutionMediumHighIndustry-average >60% schedule slip, 30–40% cost overruns on new builds.
Silver price exposureMarket/MacroHighMediumThesis depends on $30+ silver; a move to $20 implies roughly half the current price.

Technical Snapshot

Price $19.33MA50 $20.28MA200 $19.596M +5.7%
13.216.319.422.525.5Dec 15Jan 29Mar 17May 01Jun 15
52-Week Range
$11.45$19.33$30.15
RSI (14)
58
neutral
50-Day MA
$18.50
+4.5%above
200-Day MA
$16.20
+19.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
1.1M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$16.20$14.00$11.45
Resistance Levels
$24.00$30.15
Technical inputs: company filings (Jun 2026). See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.

Ownership & Insider Activity

Institutional Holders
Institutional holders
InstitutionShares% HeldChg QoQReported
Corundum Trust Company, Inc40K0.03%flat2026-03-31
Ascentis Independent Advisors1100.00%+100%2026-03-31
Insider Activity
Institutions hold ~42.2%; insiders ~3.4%. No notable open-market insider buying flagged in research.
Insider transactions
NameTitleActionSharesPriceDateValue
Ball (Alex)Senior Officer of IssuerOption20K$16.232026-04-06$329K
Beaudoin (Raphael)Senior Officer of IssuerOption32K$16.232026-04-06$517K
Elias (Elias)Senior Officer of IssuerOption28K$16.232026-04-06$457K
Elouafi (Mustapha)Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary of Issuer (other than in 4,5,6)Option38K$16.232026-04-06$611K
La Salle (Benoit)Director of IssuerOption88K$16.232026-04-06$1.4M
Landry-Tolszczuk (Ugo)Senior Officer of IssuerOption50K$16.232026-04-06$814K
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.

Peer Comparison

TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
AYA$2.96B34.4×10.4×18.8×+247.0%55.0%30.0%
AG$9.33B32.0×6.3×11.2×+95.0%60.0%20.0%
PAAS$21.48B16.1×5.4×10.6×+49.0%56.0%32.0%
CDE$19.23B15.0×7.5×14.1×+138.0%59.0%31.0%
HL$11.17B24.1×6.9×12.4×+100.0%60.0%17.0%
EXK$2.70B4.4×13.2×+230.0%40.0%-3.0%
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: company filings (Jun 2026); lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.

Research Notes

2026-09-02Recomputed on the trailing twelve months to 31 March 2026
The operating margin was a single quarter
The revenue on this page, $285.5M, is the four quarters from June 2025 to March 2026, and it matches the filed statements to 0.02%. Operating income across those quarters is $7,342, $15,171, $36,350 and $77,585 thousand, which is $136,448 thousand, or 47.8%. The published 66.2% is $77,585 thousand over $117,274 thousand, the quarter ended 31 March 2026 on its own. The net margin of 30.5% and the gross margin of 54.9% beside it were both struck on the full trailing window and reconcile, so this page carried a single quarter in one field and a trailing year in the two next to it. The March 2026 quarter genuinely was far more profitable than the year, which is the point: reading it as the trailing figure overstates the run rate by 18 points. This company has no SEC XBRL company facts, having registered on Nasdaq in April 2026 and filing IFRS statements as unstructured exhibits, so every figure here comes from the statements themselves.
2026-09-02Recomputed from the filed interim and annual statements
The published free cash flow dropped the spending that matters most for this company
This page published a free cash flow of $38.0M and a yield of 1.3%. That figure reproduces from no window the company reports. The nearest construction is calendar 2025 counting only property and equipment additions, which gives $38.5M, and it reaches that number by leaving out $42.1M of exploration and evaluation spending. For a company mid-build at Boumadine that spending is the majority of real capital expenditure, so excluding it measures something that is not free cash flow. On the trailing twelve months the page's own revenue figure covers, being the four quarters from June 2025 to March 2026, the filings give operating cash flow of $134,201 thousand against capital expenditure of $78,399 thousand, so free cash flow is $55,802 thousand and the yield on the published $2,760M market capitalisation is 2.0%. Every quarter in that window reconciles to the free cash flow table already on this page, which is why the table was right while the summary figure was not. Note also that this company has no SEC XBRL company facts at all. It registered on Nasdaq in April 2026 and files IFRS statements as unstructured exhibits, so every figure here is read from the statements themselves rather than from tagged data.
2026-06-03Internal
Forensic complete, 5.6/10 watchlist
Extraordinary growth (rev +247% real, Boumadine could ~6x output) but priced to perfection at the all-time high. P/S 14.95× vs peers 2–5×; zero margin of safety; serial diluter.
2026-05-24Internal
Added to screen
Phase 1 screening note. Promoted to full research after gold-complex review.

Sources

Aya Gold & Silver valuation questions

What is Aya Gold & Silver's forward P/E ratio?

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) trades at a forward P/E of 13.3×.

What is Aya Gold & Silver's market cap?

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.76B, and an enterprise value of $2.69B.

What is the bull and bear case for AYA?

Valuation scenarios: bull $32.00, base $22.00, bear $12.00. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.