B2Gold Corp (BTG) valuation at a glance
B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $4.68 versus a $6.50 estimate, that is a 39% upside.
- Price
- $4.68
- Fair value estimate
- $6.50
- Upside
- +39%
- Forward P/E
- 8.5×
- Market cap
- $6.10B
- P/S (TTM)
- 2.9×
CompaniesBTG
Overview
BTG
B2Gold Corp
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningProducer
$4.68+1.3%
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
117.7%
+117.7%SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Upside to FV
+38.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5Multi-mine gold producer with Goose first-gold in 2025 and a 3.4% dividend — operating leverage to a $4,500/oz gold price.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-01
Quality Snowflake
Overall 88/100
Value5/5
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend2/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
B2Gold is a diversified gold producer (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto) bringing the Goose mine (Nunavut, Canada) to first gold in 2025. Minimal leverage (D/E 0.14), an 11.8% FCF yield and a 3.4% dividend give it both yield and torque: at $4,500/oz gold, incremental ounces drop a high margin straight to cash. The stock trades at ~0.64× P/NAV vs peers at 0.85–1.1×, with the market pricing Mali geopolitical risk as a near-permanent loss.
Bull Case
CatalystGoose project first gold in 2025 de-risks the growth story; Fekola underground first ore (Q4 2025) lowers unit costs.
LeverageRevenue +117.7% and earnings +250% as gold re-rates; ~10.9% FCF yield; analyst target ~$6.60 (+46%).
Balance SheetD/E 0.14 (only ~$10.5M lease debt), ~$387M cash and a 3.4% dividend — rare combination in the miners.
Bear Case
GeopoliticsMali accounts for ~55–57% of production; the Fekola permit decision is a binary end-June event under a new mining code.
CommodityLevered to gold both ways — a price reversal compresses the whole thesis.
Goose EconomicsGoose AISC is ~$1,000–1,100/oz (NI 43-101), not the lower figures sometimes cited; capex ran to ~$1.0–1.1B (an overrun).
HedgingPrepaid gold contracts cap some upside participation; they expire mid-2025 as an earnings catalyst.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
Enterprise Value
$6.14B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$2.10B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
8.5×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
via financials
P/B
1.6×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
calculated
PEG
0.4×
calculated
Revenue Growth
117.7%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$250M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
2.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
2.1%
exchange
Institutional Own.
55.0%
13F
Insider Own.
1.5%
proxy
Shares Out.
1.30B
SEC filing
Float
1.28B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.40
Base$6.50
Bull$11.94
Now $4.68
Bear Case
$3.40
Mali permit lost; gold reverts to $3,000
Base Case
$6.50
Goose ramps on schedule; gold ~$4,000
Bull Case
$11.94
M&A at ~1.2× NAV; full Goose + Fekola UG at $4,500 gold
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$719M
FCF Yield
11.8%
Balance Sheet
$38M net debt
Rev CAGR
21%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 13.3× | 1.9× | 3.0× |
| FY23 | – | 2.0× | 5.0× |
| FY24 | – | 1.7× | 34.9× |
| FY25 | 14.9× | 2.0× | 4.3× |
| TTM · | 11.2× | 1.6× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| AEM | $85.91B | 16.2× | 6.3× | 8.7× | +66.0% | 74.0% | 39.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| GFI | $35.41B | 10.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +71.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% |
| AU | $46.66B | 13.6× | 4.2× | 7.3× | +65.0% | 54.0% | 31.0% |
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 1,733 | 1,934 | 1,902 | 3,061 |
| Cost of Revenue | 1,128 | 1,154 | 1,196 | 1,530 |
| Gross Profit | 604.2 | 780.0 | 706.2 | 1,531 |
| Operating Income | 516.5 | 674.6 | 594.8 | 1,405 |
| EBITDA | 925.3 | 736.6 | 93.0 | 1,455 |
| Net Income | 252.9 | 10.1 | (629.9) | 401.9 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 | 0.01 | -0.48 | 0.30 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 651.9 | 306.9 | 337.0 | 380.4 |
| Total Assets | 3,681 | 4,875 | 4,814 | 5,879 |
| Total Debt | 57.2 | 192.1 | 437.9 | 598.3 |
| Total Liabilities | 569.4 | 964.6 | 1,778 | 2,238 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 3,008 | 3,810 | 2,983 | 3,594 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 1,075 | 1,301 | 1,318 | 1,341 |
| Line Item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | – | 595.8 | 714.5 | 877.6 | 895.8 |
| Capital Expenditure | (302.3) | (74.6) | (76.4) | (16.9) | – |
| Free Cash Flow | – | 521.2 | 638.1 | 877.6 | 895.8 |
| Investing Cash Flow | – | (388.8) | (845.3) | (763.3) | (892.7) |
| Financing Cash Flow | – | (211.3) | (192.5) | (69.1) | 58.6 |
Figures normalized from B2Gold Corp's SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-11. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-11 ↗
Catalysts
2025
Producthigh relevance
Goose project FIRST GOLD (Nunavut)
De-risks the growth story; ~85% probability per company guidance.
Q4 2025
Product
Fekola underground first ore
Cost-reduction catalyst.
End-Jun
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Fekola permit decision (Mali)
Binary geopolitical event; ~55–57% of production.
Mid-2025
Macro
Prepaid gold contracts expire
Removes a cap on upside participation — earnings catalyst.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali permit / geopolitics | Regulatory | High | Medium | ~55–57% of production; Fekola permit is a binary end-June outcome; nationalization is the tail risk. |
| Gold price reversal | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Direct hit to revenue and FCF given operating leverage. |
| Goose AISC / capex higher than guided | Execution | Medium | Medium | Goose AISC ~$1,000–1,100/oz and capex ~$1.0–1.1B; lower project IRR than early estimates. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.60$4.68$4.90
RSI (14)
64
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.30
+8.8%above
200-Day MA
$3.70
+26.5%above
Avg Vol (30d)
18M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$4.30$3.90
Resistance Levels
$4.90$5.40
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | 95.4M | 7.19% | -8.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Pale Fire Capital SE | 69.7M | 5.26% | +77.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 43.1M | 3.25% | +79% | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 37.0M | 2.79% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| American Century Companies Inc | 35.0M | 2.64% | +1.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 33.5M | 2.52% | +4.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 28.2M | 2.13% | -22.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~1.5%; institutional ownership ~55%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 984K | $4.67 | 2026-05-18 | $4.6M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.5M | $4.91 | 2026-05-15 | $7.4M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.5M | $5.28 | 2026-05-14 | $8.2M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.6M | $5.36 | 2026-05-13 | $8.6M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.4M | $5.32 | 2026-05-12 | $7.7M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.2M | $4.93 | 2026-04-09 | $5.8M |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| AEM | $85.91B | 16.2× | 6.3× | 8.7× | +66.0% | 74.0% | 39.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| GFI | $35.41B | 10.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +71.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% |
| AU | $46.66B | 13.6× | 4.2× | 7.3× | +65.0% | 54.0% | 31.0% |
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-01Internal
Gold-torque + dividend profile
Diversified producer with operating leverage to gold plus a 3.4% yield. Fekola permit (Mali) and Goose ramp are the watch items; Goose AISC corrected upward to ~$1,000–1,100/oz.
B2Gold Corp valuation questions
Is B2Gold Corp (BTG) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, B2Gold Corp trades below: $4.68 today versus a $6.50 estimate, about +39%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is B2Gold Corp's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for BTG is $6.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.40, base $6.50, bull $11.94. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is B2Gold Corp's forward P/E ratio?
B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades at a forward P/E of 8.5×, and 2.9× trailing sales.
What is B2Gold Corp's market cap?
B2Gold Corp (BTG) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $6.10B, and an enterprise value of $6.14B.
What is the bull and bear case for BTG?
Valuation scenarios: bull $11.94, base $6.50, bear $3.40. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.