B2Gold Corp (BTG) valuation at a glance
B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $4.68 versus a $6.50 estimate, that is a 39% upside.
- Price
- $4.68
- Fair value estimate
- $6.50
- Upside
- +39%
- Forward P/E
- 8.5×
- Market cap
- $6.10B
- P/S (TTM)
- 2.9×
CompaniesBTG
BTG
B2Gold Corp
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningProducer
Overview
$4.68+1.3%
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
117.7%
+117.7%SEC filings
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+38.9%
internal
Conviction
4/5Multi-mine gold producer with Goose first-gold in 2025 and a 3.4% dividend, operating gearing to a $4,500/oz gold price.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-01
Quality Snowflake
Overall 88/100
Value4/4
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend2/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
B2Gold is a diversified gold producer (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto) bringing the Goose mine (Nunavut, Canada) to first gold in 2025. Minimal debt (D/E 0.14) and a 3.4% dividend give it both yield and torque, though the free cash flow behind that yield is withdrawn pending a read of the 40-F cash flow statement, for the reason set out in the note below: at $4,500/oz gold, incremental ounces drop a high margin straight to cash. The stock trades at ~0.64× P/NAV vs peers at 0.85–1.1×, with the market pricing Mali geopolitical risk as a near-permanent loss.
Bull Case
CatalystGoose project first gold in 2025 de-risks the growth story; Fekola underground first ore (Q4 2025) lowers unit costs.
MarginsRevenue +117.7% and earnings +250% as gold re-rates; ~10.9% FCF yield; analyst target ~$6.60 (+46%).
Balance SheetD/E 0.14 (only ~$10.5M lease debt), ~$387M cash and a 3.4% dividend, rare combination in the miners.
Bear Case
GeopoliticsMali accounts for ~55–57% of production; the Fekola permit decision is a binary end-June event under a new mining code.
CommodityGeared to gold both ways, a price reversal compresses the whole thesis.
Goose EconomicsGoose AISC is ~$1,000–1,100/oz (NI 43-101), not the lower figures sometimes cited; capex ran to ~$1.0–1.1B (an overrun).
HedgingPrepaid gold contracts cap some upside participation; they expire mid-2025 as an earnings catalyst.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$6.14B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$2.10B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
8.5×
internal
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
SEC filings
P/B
1.6×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
0.4×
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
117.7%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filings
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
2.0×
SEC filings
Short Interest
2.1%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
55.0%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
1.5%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
1.30B
SEC filings
Float
1.28B
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.40
Base$6.50
Bull$11.94
Now $4.68
Bear Case
$3.40
Mali permit lost; gold reverts to $3,000
Base Case
$6.50
Goose ramps on schedule; gold ~$4,000
Bull Case
$11.94
M&A at ~1.2× NAV; full Goose + Fekola UG at $4,500 gold
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$719M
FCF Yield
11.8%
Balance Sheet
$38M net debt
Rev CAGR
21%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 13.3× | 1.9× | 3.0× |
| FY23 | – | 2.0× | 5.0× |
| FY24 | – | 1.7× | 34.9× |
| FY25 | 14.9× | 2.0× | 4.3× |
| TTM · | 11.2× | 1.6× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| AEM | $85.91B | 16.2× | 6.3× | 8.7× | +66.0% | 74.0% | 39.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| GFI | $35.41B | 10.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +71.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% |
| AU | $46.66B | 13.6× | 4.2× | 7.3× | +65.0% | 54.0% | 31.0% |
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 1,733 | 1,934 | 1,902 | 3,061 |
| Cost of Revenue | 1,128 | 1,154 | 1,196 | 1,530 |
| Gross Profit | 604.2 | 780.0 | 706.2 | 1,531 |
| Operating Income | 516.5 | 674.6 | 594.8 | 1,405 |
| EBITDA | 925.3 | 736.6 | 93.0 | 1,455 |
| Net Income | 252.9 | 10.1 | (629.9) | 401.9 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 | 0.01 | -0.48 | 0.30 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 651.9 | 306.9 | 337.0 | 380.4 |
| Total Assets | 3,681 | 4,875 | 4,814 | 5,879 |
| Total Debt | 57.2 | 192.1 | 437.9 | 598.3 |
| Total Liabilities | 569.4 | 964.6 | 1,778 | 2,238 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 3,008 | 3,810 | 2,983 | 3,594 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 1,075 | 1,301 | 1,318 | 1,341 |
| Line Item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | – | 595.8 | 714.5 | 877.6 | 895.8 |
| Capital Expenditure | (302.3) | (74.6) | (76.4) | (16.9) | – |
| Free Cash Flow | – | 521.2 | 638.1 | 877.6 | 895.8 |
| Investing Cash Flow | – | (388.8) | (845.3) | (763.3) | (892.7) |
| Financing Cash Flow | – | (211.3) | (192.5) | (69.1) | 58.6 |
Figures normalized from B2Gold Corp's SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-11. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 40-F filed 2026-03-11 ↗
Catalysts
2025
Producthigh relevance
Goose project FIRST GOLD (Nunavut)
De-risks the growth story; ~85% probability per company guidance.
Q4 2025
Product
Fekola underground first ore
Cost-reduction catalyst.
End-Jun
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Fekola permit decision (Mali)
Binary geopolitical event; ~55–57% of production.
Mid-2025
Macro
Prepaid gold contracts expire
Removes a cap on upside participation, earnings catalyst.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali permit / geopolitics | Regulatory | High | Medium | ~55–57% of production; Fekola permit is a binary end-June outcome; nationalization is the tail risk. |
| Gold price reversal | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Direct hit to revenue and FCF given operating gearing. |
| Goose AISC / capex higher than guided | Execution | Medium | Medium | Goose AISC ~$1,000–1,100/oz and capex ~$1.0–1.1B; lower project IRR than early estimates. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.60$4.68$4.90
RSI (14)
64
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.30
+8.8%above
200-Day MA
$3.70
+26.5%above
Avg Vol (30d)
18M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$4.30$3.90
Resistance Levels
$4.90$5.40
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | 95.4M | 7.19% | -8.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Pale Fire Capital SE | 69.7M | 5.26% | +77.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 43.1M | 3.25% | +79% | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 37.0M | 2.79% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| American Century Companies Inc | 35.0M | 2.64% | +1.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 33.5M | 2.52% | +4.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 28.2M | 2.13% | -22.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~1.5%; institutional ownership ~55%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 984K | $4.67 | 2026-05-18 | $4.6M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.5M | $4.91 | 2026-05-15 | $7.4M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.5M | $5.28 | 2026-05-14 | $8.2M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.6M | $5.36 | 2026-05-13 | $8.6M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.4M | $5.32 | 2026-05-12 | $7.7M |
| B2Gold Corp | Issuer | Buy | 1.2M | $4.93 | 2026-04-09 | $5.8M |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| AEM | $85.91B | 16.2× | 6.3× | 8.7× | +66.0% | 74.0% | 39.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| GFI | $35.41B | 10.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +71.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% |
| AU | $46.66B | 13.6× | 4.2× | 7.3× | +65.0% | 54.0% | 31.0% |
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-02Checked against SEC XBRL for CIK 0001429937 and the data feed statements
The free cash flow here cannot be verified and is withdrawn
The figure previously shown, $250M, is withdrawn rather than corrected, because no source available to this site supports a number in its place. The data feed reports free cash flow for this company that is identical to its operating cash flow in every period, $895.8M against $895.8M for 2025 and negative $78.8M against negative $78.8M for the June 2026 quarter. That equality means capital expenditure was treated as zero. It was not. Investing outflow for 2025 was $892.7M, of which $861.1M sits in a line the feed does not classify as capital expenditure, and for a gold miner most of that is capitalised mine development, which is capital expenditure in everything but the label. The company files a 40-F under IFRS and SEC tagged data carries its operating cash flow of $895.8M but no capital expenditure tag at all, so the deduction has to be read from the cash flow statement itself. Until that is done the honest figure is no figure. What can be said is the shape: subtracting the whole unclassified line would leave about $35M rather than $250M, and taking the feed at face value would give $895.8M, so the true number lies inside a range too wide to publish. The same failure overstated a candidate on this site once before, where a screened yield of 21.4% turned out to be 0.75%.
2026-06-01Internal
Gold-torque + dividend profile
Diversified producer with operating gearing to gold plus a 3.4% yield. Fekola permit (Mali) and Goose ramp are the watch items; Goose AISC corrected upward to ~$1,000–1,100/oz.
Sources
B2Gold Corp valuation questions
Is B2Gold Corp (BTG) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, B2Gold Corp trades below: $4.68 today versus a $6.50 estimate, about +39%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is B2Gold Corp's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for BTG is $6.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.40, base $6.50, bull $11.94. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is B2Gold Corp's forward P/E ratio?
B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades at a forward P/E of 8.5×, and 2.9× trailing sales.
What is B2Gold Corp's market cap?
B2Gold Corp (BTG) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $6.10B, and an enterprise value of $6.14B.
What is the bull and bear case for BTG?
Valuation scenarios: bull $11.94, base $6.50, bear $3.40. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.