Galiano Gold (GAU) valuation at a glance
Galiano Gold (GAU) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $2.25 versus a $3.40 estimate, that is a 51% upside.
- Price
- $2.25
- Fair value estimate
- $3.40
- Upside
- +51%
- Forward P/E
- 4.2×
- Market cap
- $525M
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.2×
CompaniesGAU
GAU
Galiano Gold
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningSingle-AssetDebt Claim Disputed
Overview
$2.25-1.7%
Market Cap
$525M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
88.8%
+88.8%SEC filings
Gross Margin
42.0%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
15.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+51.1%
comparable-company analysis
Conviction
1/5Debt-free single-asset gold miner (Asanko, Ghana) printing cash at $4,500/oz, 14–16% FCF yield and a mill-expansion catalyst.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-02
Quality Snowflake
Overall 80/100
Value5/5
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
UNDER REVISION, updated 7 September 2026 with what the filings actually say. A numeric gate written against the 2025 Form 40-F and the 2026 interim reports for CIK 0001377757 finds that 31 of the 219 figures on this page do not reconcile, and the ones that matter most are these. The share count is 233 million against a filed 259,790,437 at the year end and 261,408,764 at 30 June 2026, so the market capitalisation and every multiple struck on it are wrong. Trailing revenue of $420M is neither the filed year of $447.8M nor the trailing year to June 2026 of $597.0M. The net margin of 24% is published against a year in which the company reported a LOSS of $29.3M attributable to owners, a margin of minus 6.5%. The current ratio of 3.0 is 0.92 on the filed balance sheet, below one. Free cash flow of $80M was $43.1M for the year and $9.6M trailing. Insider ownership of 4% is 0.4%: directors and officers hold 1,094,556 shares. The $30M payment is owed to OR Royalties, which bought the rights in the first half of 2026, not to Gold Fields. Six further claims have no filing behind them at all, among them a mill-expansion feasibility study whose phrase appears in no document read, and a cheapest-in-peer-group assertion resting on a peer table three of whose five rows are empty. Conviction stays at the floor and the page is retained only so the record of what it claimed is visible. ORIGINAL TEXT FOLLOWS. Galiano owns 90% of the Asanko gold mine in Ghana (government 10% free carry), runs zero long-term debt, and carried $114.9M cash with $32.7M net income in Q1 2026. AISC is high ($2,300–2,600/oz) but at $4,500/oz gold the FCF yield is 14–16%. It trades at ~4.19× forward P/E and ~0.58× P/NAV, the cheapest EV/EBITDA in its peer group. A mill-expansion feasibility study and a 2027 hedge expiry (~$84M/yr freed up) are the next value steps. Single-asset risk is the trade-off for the cash generation.
Bull Case
Balance SheetZero long-term debt, $114.9M cash, $75M undrawn revolver (~$190M liquidity); Q1 2026 net income $32.7M.
FCF14–16% FCF yield at current gold; revenue +88.8% YoY; Q1 adj. EBITDA ~$93.4M (+364% YoY).
Catalyst2026 guidance 140–160K oz (+25%); hedge expiry early 2027 releases ~$84M/yr; underground 828 koz at 2.5–2.8 g/t is a free call option.
Valuation~0.58× P/NAV vs peers 0.8–1.2×; ~2.77× EV/EBITDA vs ~5.4× peer average, cheapest in the group.
Bear Case
ConcentrationSingle asset, single jurisdiction (Ghana), no diversification; any pit-wall or community disruption hits 100% of output.
CostHigh-cost producer (AISC $2,300–2,600, revised up for the Ghana royalty); margins compress fast if gold falls.
Payments$30M Gold Fields payment due Dec 2026 for the 90% ownership.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$525M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$410M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$420M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
4.2×
comparable-company analysis
P/S (TTM)
1.2×
SEC filings
P/B
1.1×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
2.8×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
0.3×
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
88.8%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
42.0%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filings
Net Margin
24.0%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$80M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
15.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.2×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
3.0×
SEC filings
Short Interest
1.2%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
40.0%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
4.0%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
233.0M
SEC filings
Float
224.0M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$1.50
Base$3.40
Bull$5.00
Now $2.25
Bear Case
$1.50
Gold to $3,000; high AISC squeezes margin; single-asset disruption
Base Case
$3.40
Steady Asanko output at ~$4,000 gold; 0.58× P/NAV holds
Bull Case
$5.00
Mill expansion + $4,500–5,400 gold + hedge expiry
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$73M
FCF Yield
13.9%
Balance Sheet
$86M net cash
Rev CAGR
94%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 51.7× | 1.4× | 6.3× |
| FY25 | – | 1.5× | 5.7× |
| TTM · | 18.6× | 1.3× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| IAG | $10.36B | 10.5× | 3.0× | 5.8× | +116.0% | 48.0% | 29.0% |
| EGO | $8.80B | 11.8× | 4.4× | 8.2× | +50.0% | 63.0% | 29.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 231.3 | 447.8 |
| Cost of Revenue | – | 0.1 | 153.5 | 262.5 |
| Gross Profit | – | (0.1) | 77.9 | 185.2 |
| Operating Income | (12.5) | (17.3) | 49.6 | 153.0 |
| EBITDA | 41.0 | 26.2 | 39.8 | 102.8 |
| Net Income | 40.8 | 26.1 | 6.1 | (29.3) |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 56.1 | 55.3 | 105.8 | 108.3 |
| Total Assets | 179.9 | 213.3 | 500.4 | 599.1 |
| Total Debt | 0.3 | 0.2 | 38.9 | 37.1 |
| Total Liabilities | 6.2 | 12.4 | 252.6 | 377.4 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 173.7 | 200.9 | 243.5 | 218.9 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 224.9 | 225.0 | 257.1 | 259.8 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.8 | (3.6) | 55.7 | 158.0 |
| Capital Expenditure | (0.0) | (0.0) | (66.9) | (114.9) |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.8 | (3.7) | (11.2) | 43.1 |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | (137.0) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (0.1) | (0.1) | (10.6) | (20.7) |
Figures normalized from Galiano Gold Inc.'s SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-12. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 40-F filed 2026-03-12 ↗
Catalysts
By Jun 30
Product
Additional Abore drill results
Bonanza grades (53m @ 3.9 g/t, 32m @ 4.7 g/t already), resource expansion.
Aug '26
Product
Asanko mill-expansion feasibility / Q2 earnings
If positive, production/cost re-rating.
Early 2027
Macrohigh relevance
Hedge expiry, ~$84M/yr freed up
45K oz cap @ $3,060 expires; at $4,500+ gold = margin expansion.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-asset / single-jurisdiction | Execution | High | Medium | Any Asanko or Ghana disruption hits 100% of output. |
| High AISC ($2,300–2,600) | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Margins compress quickly on a gold pullback. |
| $30M Gold Fields payment (Dec 2026) | Dilution/Capital | Low | High | Final payment for the 90% ownership; covered by liquidity. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$1.40$2.25$2.60
RSI (14)
52
neutral
50-Day MA
$2.20
+2.3%above
200-Day MA
$1.85
+21.6%above
Avg Vol (30d)
2.1M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$2.10$1.85
Resistance Levels
$2.40$2.60
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Fields | ~20% (largest) | 20% | -19.5% | Sep 2025 |
Insider Activity
104 institutional holders (~40% of float). Director Paul Wright bought ~$149K at $2.17 (May 2026); short interest 1.18%; added to GDXJ March 2026.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Wright (Director) | Director | Buy | ~69K | $2.17 | 2026-05-19 | $149K |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| IAG | $10.36B | 10.5× | 3.0× | 5.8× | +116.0% | 48.0% | 29.0% |
| EGO | $8.80B | 11.8× | 4.4× | 8.2× | +50.0% | 63.0% | 29.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-02Recomputed from the FY2025 Form 40-F and the Q2 2026 Form 6-K
Zero borrowings and a real obligation are both true at once
This page carried a debt to equity of 0.0 beside a risk naming a $30.0M payment due in December 2026, and the two looked like a contradiction. They are not. The company has no borrowings of any kind. The IFRS tag for borrowings reads zero at every year end since 2018, and the $75.0M revolving facility signed in December 2025 was undrawn at both the December 2025 and June 2026 balance sheet dates. The $30.0M is deferred consideration on the acquisition of the 45% joint venture interest, carried at amortised cost and presented as a current liability. It is a dated purchase price payable, not a loan. Two obligations the page did not mention are a second $30.0M contingent on 100,000 ounces of production from Nkran, carried at $20.7M, and a 1% net smelter royalty on Nkran carried at $8.8M. The rights to all of it were sold by Gold Fields to OR Royalties during the first half of 2026, so the payee named on this page is out of date while the amount and the date are not. The ratio itself was still wrong, for a different reason. This site excludes lease liabilities from debt because EBITDA is struck after rent, and that reasoning is specific to ASC 842. This company reports under IFRS, where a lessee makes no operating and finance distinction, and its own stated EBITDA definition adds back both depreciation and finance expense. Its lease cost therefore sits entirely above its EBITDA line, so the $74.6M of lease liabilities at 30 June 2026, largely capitalised mining equipment, are debt on this company's own definition. Against equity of $331.3M that is 0.23, and 0.31 if the deferred consideration is counted with it. The figure published is 0.23. The wider staleness on this page, a share count of 233M against the 261,590,437 the 40-F reports, is separate and unresolved.
2026-09-07Forensic
This note named the wrong chief executive
A note dated 2 June 2026 stated that the chief executive is Greg McCunn. He is not. The annual information form gives Matt Badylak, appointed 14 June 2021, and the name McCunn appears in none of the annual information form, the 2025 management discussion, or the first or second quarter filings of 2026. The same note claimed all-in sustaining costs of about $1,354, cash of $117.6M and production of 106,676 ounces as verified data; no filing read for this page carries any of the three, so all four claims are withdrawn. What the note got right is retained: the company operates the Asanko mine in Ghana as its single asset and is a different company from Aris Mining, with which its ticker is often confused.
Sources
Galiano Gold valuation questions
Is Galiano Gold (GAU) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Galiano Gold trades below: $2.25 today versus a $3.40 estimate, about +51%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Galiano Gold's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for GAU is $3.40. Its valuation scenarios span bear $1.50, base $3.40, bull $5.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Galiano Gold's forward P/E ratio?
Galiano Gold (GAU) trades at a forward P/E of 4.2×, and 1.2× trailing sales.
What is Galiano Gold's market cap?
Galiano Gold (GAU) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $525M, and an enterprise value of $410M.
What is the bull and bear case for GAU?
Valuation scenarios: bull $5.00, base $3.40, bear $1.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.