Galiano Gold (GAU) valuation at a glance
Galiano Gold (GAU) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $2.25 versus a $3.40 estimate, that is a 51% upside.
- Price
- $2.25
- Fair value estimate
- $3.40
- Upside
- +51%
- Forward P/E
- 4.2×
- Market cap
- $525M
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.2×
CompaniesGAU
Overview
GAU
Galiano Gold
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningSingle-AssetZero Debt
$2.25-1.7%
Market Cap
$525M
SEC EDGAR (0001377757) / company IR
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
88.8%
+88.8%SEC filing
Gross Margin
42.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
15.0%
calculated
Upside to FV
+51.1%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5Debt-free single-asset gold miner (Asanko, Ghana) printing cash at $4,500/oz — 14–16% FCF yield and a mill-expansion catalyst.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-02
Quality Snowflake
Overall 80/100
Value5/5
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Galiano owns 90% of the Asanko gold mine in Ghana (government 10% free carry), runs zero long-term debt, and carried $114.9M cash with $32.7M net income in Q1 2026. AISC is high ($2,300–2,600/oz) but at $4,500/oz gold the FCF yield is 14–16%. It trades at ~4.19× forward P/E and ~0.58× P/NAV — the cheapest EV/EBITDA in its peer group. A mill-expansion feasibility study and a 2027 hedge expiry (~$84M/yr unlocked) are the next value steps. Single-asset risk is the trade-off for the cash generation.
Bull Case
Balance SheetZero long-term debt, $114.9M cash, $75M undrawn revolver (~$190M liquidity); Q1 2026 net income $32.7M.
FCF14–16% FCF yield at current gold; revenue +88.8% YoY; Q1 adj. EBITDA ~$93.4M (+364% YoY).
Catalyst2026 guidance 140–160K oz (+25%); hedge expiry early 2027 unlocks ~$84M/yr; underground 828 koz at 2.5–2.8 g/t is a free call option.
Valuation~0.58× P/NAV vs peers 0.8–1.2×; ~2.77× EV/EBITDA vs ~5.4× peer average — cheapest in the group.
Bear Case
ConcentrationSingle asset, single jurisdiction (Ghana) — no diversification; any pit-wall or community disruption hits 100% of output.
CostHigh-cost producer (AISC $2,300–2,600, revised up for the Ghana royalty); margins compress fast if gold falls.
Payments$30M Gold Fields payment due Dec 2026 for the 90% ownership.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$525M
SEC EDGAR (0001377757) / company IR
Enterprise Value
$410M
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$420M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
8.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
4.2×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.2×
via financials
P/B
1.1×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
2.8×
calculated
PEG
0.3×
calculated
Revenue Growth
88.8%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
42.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
24.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$80M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
15.0%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
3.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
1.2%
exchange
Institutional Own.
40.0%
13F
Insider Own.
4.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
233.0M
SEC filing
Float
224.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$1.50
Base$3.40
Bull$5.00
Now $2.25
Bear Case
$1.50
Gold to $3,000; high AISC squeezes margin; single-asset disruption
Base Case
$3.40
Steady Asanko output at ~$4,000 gold; 0.58× P/NAV holds
Bull Case
$5.00
Mill expansion + $4,500–5,400 gold + hedge expiry
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$73M
FCF Yield
13.9%
Balance Sheet
$86M net cash
Rev CAGR
94%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 51.7× | 1.4× | 6.3× |
| FY25 | – | 1.5× | 5.7× |
| TTM · | 18.6× | 1.3× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| IAG | $10.36B | 10.5× | 3.0× | 5.8× | +116.0% | 48.0% | 29.0% |
| EGO | $8.80B | 11.8× | 4.4× | 8.2× | +50.0% | 63.0% | 29.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 231.3 | 447.8 |
| Cost of Revenue | – | 0.1 | 153.5 | 262.5 |
| Gross Profit | – | (0.1) | 77.9 | 185.2 |
| Operating Income | (12.5) | (17.3) | 49.6 | 153.0 |
| EBITDA | 41.0 | 26.2 | 39.8 | 102.8 |
| Net Income | 40.8 | 26.1 | 6.1 | (29.3) |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 56.1 | 55.3 | 105.8 | 108.3 |
| Total Assets | 179.9 | 213.3 | 500.4 | 599.1 |
| Total Debt | 0.3 | 0.2 | 38.9 | 37.1 |
| Total Liabilities | 6.2 | 12.4 | 252.6 | 377.4 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 173.7 | 200.9 | 243.5 | 218.9 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 224.9 | 225.0 | 257.1 | 259.8 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.8 | (3.6) | 55.7 | 158.0 |
| Capital Expenditure | (0.0) | (0.0) | (66.9) | (114.9) |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.8 | (3.7) | (11.2) | 43.1 |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | (137.0) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (0.1) | (0.1) | (10.6) | (20.7) |
Figures normalized from Galiano Gold Inc.'s SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-12. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-12 ↗
Catalysts
By Jun 30
Product
Additional Abore drill results
Bonanza grades (53m @ 3.9 g/t, 32m @ 4.7 g/t already) — resource expansion.
Aug '26
Product
Asanko mill-expansion feasibility / Q2 earnings
If positive, production/cost re-rating.
Early 2027
Macrohigh relevance
Hedge expiry — ~$84M/yr unlocked
45K oz cap @ $3,060 expires; at $4,500+ gold = margin expansion.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-asset / single-jurisdiction | Execution | High | Medium | Any Asanko or Ghana disruption hits 100% of output. |
| High AISC ($2,300–2,600) | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Margins compress quickly on a gold pullback. |
| $30M Gold Fields payment (Dec 2026) | Dilution/Capital | Low | High | Final payment for the 90% ownership; covered by liquidity. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$1.40$2.25$2.60
RSI (14)
52
neutral
50-Day MA
$2.20
+2.3%above
200-Day MA
$1.85
+21.6%above
Avg Vol (30d)
2.1M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$2.10$1.85
Resistance Levels
$2.40$2.60
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Fields | ~20% (largest) | 20% | -19.5% | Sep 2025 |
Insider Activity
104 institutional holders (~40% of float). Director Paul Wright bought ~$149K at $2.17 (May 2026); short interest 1.18%; added to GDXJ March 2026.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Wright (Director) | Director | Buy | ~69K | $2.17 | 2026-05-19 | $149K |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAU | $583M | 20.3× | 1.3× | 3.0× | +249.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% |
| BTG | $5.96B | 11.8× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +118.0% | 65.0% | 15.0% |
| KGC | $32.65B | 11.6× | 4.1× | 6.3× | +61.0% | 69.0% | 36.0% |
| IAG | $10.36B | 10.5× | 3.0× | 5.8× | +116.0% | 48.0% | 29.0% |
| EGO | $8.80B | 11.8× | 4.4× | 8.2× | +50.0% | 63.0% | 29.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-02Internal
Note: not Aris Mining
CEO Greg McCunn. Single asset: Asanko, Ghana (no Colombian mines). Distinct from Aris — a common ticker confusion. Verified data: AISC ~$1,354, cash $117.6M, production 106,676 oz.
Galiano Gold valuation questions
Is Galiano Gold (GAU) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Galiano Gold trades below: $2.25 today versus a $3.40 estimate, about +51%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Galiano Gold's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for GAU is $3.40. Its valuation scenarios span bear $1.50, base $3.40, bull $5.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Galiano Gold's forward P/E ratio?
Galiano Gold (GAU) trades at a forward P/E of 4.2×, and 1.2× trailing sales.
What is Galiano Gold's market cap?
Galiano Gold (GAU) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $525M, and an enterprise value of $410M.
What is the bull and bear case for GAU?
Valuation scenarios: bull $5.00, base $3.40, bear $1.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.