Bumble Inc (BMBL) valuation at a glance
Bumble Inc (BMBL) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $2.72 versus a $4.34 estimate, that is a 60% upside.
- Price
- $2.72
- Fair value estimate
- $4.34
- Upside
- +60%
- Forward P/E
- 2.7×
- Market cap
- $413M
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.4×
CompaniesBMBL
Overview
BMBL
Bumble Inc
Communication ServicesConsumer InternetDatingTurnaround
$2.72+1.5%
Market Cap
$413M
SEC 10-K
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
-14.1%
-14.1%SEC filing
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
56.9%
calculated
Upside to FV
+59.6%
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Founder-led dating platform, 'cheap' at ~0.4× sales — but 8 straight quarters of paying-user decline make it a value trap, not a turnaround.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-05-26
Quality Snowflake
Overall 50/100
Value4/4
Future0/2
Past3/4
Health3/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Bumble is a contrarian turnaround: a 110-agent deep dive (Sprints 12–14) on a founder-led dating platform trading below 1× sales with a high FCF yield. Subscriber trends and competitive pressure from Match's portfolio are the swing factors — depth of research is high, conviction deliberately low.
Bull Case
Cash FlowHigh FCF yield (~57%); trades at ~0.4× revenue and below book.
BrandDifferentiated women-first brand with global reach.
M&AAt ~$413M cap on $931M revenue, acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE; a take-private at even 1.0× revenue would be ~2× the stock.
Bear Case
Structural DeclinePaying users 2.6M→2.1M over 8 consecutive quarters — structural, not cyclical. Revenue −2.5% YoY, the first-ever annual decline.
Second Brand DyingBadoo revenue −17% YoY; Gen Z shifting to Hinge/Tinder/IRL meetups.
Debt$475M at SOFR+8% (~13% effective), maturing Nov 2028 — crushing interest expense against a shrinking top line.
Instability3rd CEO in 3 years; $130M restructuring charge cut ~350 employees (31%). Blackstone (13%) actively exiting.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$413M
SEC 10-K
Enterprise Value
$765M
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$931M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Forward P/E
2.7×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
0.4×
via financials
P/B
0.6×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
-14.1%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
31.5%
SEC filing
Net Margin
-71.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$235M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
56.9%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.8×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
11.8%
exchange
Institutional Own.
89.1%
13F
Insider Own.
3.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
113.0M
SEC filing
Float
90.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.50
Base$4.34
Bull$5.00
Now $2.72
Bear Case
$3.50
Analyst low 12-month target (12 analysts)
Base Case
$4.34
Analyst mean 12-month target (12 analysts)
Bull Case
$5.00
Analyst high 12-month target (12 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$235M
FCF Yield
56.8%
Balance Sheet
$352M net debt
Rev CAGR
2%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 3.0× | – |
| FY23 | – | 1.8× | 23.3× |
| FY24 | – | 0.8× | – |
| FY25 | – | 0.5× | – |
| TTM · | – | 0.5× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 903.5 | 1,052 | 1,072 | 965.7 |
| Cost of Revenue | 249.5 | 307.8 | 318.8 | 281.5 |
| Gross Profit | 654.0 | 744.0 | 752.8 | 684.1 |
| Operating Income | 42.5 | 53.4 | 201.1 | 240.5 |
| EBITDA | 3.1 | 94.9 | (634.7) | (792.7) |
| Net Income | (79.7) | (4.2) | (557.0) | (693.1) |
| Diluted EPS | -0.62 | -0.03 | -4.61 | -6.03 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 402.6 | 355.6 | 204.3 | 175.8 |
| Total Assets | 3,693 | 3,625 | 2,525 | 1,425 |
| Total Debt | 641.9 | 635.4 | 629.5 | 599.4 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,239 | 1,288 | 1,176 | 744.0 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 1,628 | 1,635 | 824.5 | 570.0 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 129.8 | 130.7 | 107.1 | 129.6 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 132.9 | 182.1 | 123.4 | 250.4 |
| Capital Expenditure | (16.3) | (14.9) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.6 | 167.2 | 96.7 | 238.7 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (86.1) | (24.8) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (15.0) | (198.9) | (250.8) | (268.1) |
Figures normalized from Bumble Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-16. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-16 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q3 2026 results — revenue stabilization
If the decline rate narrows materially (e.g. −5% vs −14%), the market may re-rate from distress toward a turnaround multiple.
H1 '26
Product
Tech Stack 2.0 / product relaunch
A credible app overhaul could slow paying-user attrition; sequential stabilization would be a sentiment catalyst near 52-week lows.
12–36 mo
M&A
Strategic acquisition or take-private
Acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE at ~$413M cap.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural paying-user attrition | Execution | High | High | 8 consecutive quarters of decline; ARPPU gains cannot offset volume losses of this magnitude indefinitely. |
| Debt at ~13% effective rate | Market/Macro | High | Medium | $475M at SOFR+8% maturing Nov 2028; refinancing risk if FCF deteriorates. |
| Management instability | Key Person | Medium | Medium | Third CEO in three years; no strategic continuity. |
| Demographic headwind | Competition | High | High | Gen Z abandoning the category for Hinge/Tinder/IRL; 'this is Myspace, not Facebook.' |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.61$2.72$8.64
RSI (14)
38
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.10
-12.3%below
200-Day MA
$4.50
-39.6%below
Avg Vol (30d)
3.5M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.61$2.30
Resistance Levels
$3.20$4.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc | 29.9M | 22.93% | -20% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 6.6M | 5.02% | +6.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Saba Capital Management, L.P. | 5.3M | 4.09% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Accel Growth Fund V Associates L.L.C. | 5.1M | 3.88% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 4.8M | 3.67% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 4.3M | 3.33% | +168.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 4.3M | 3.30% | -7.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Institutions hold ~89%; insiders ~3%. Blackstone holds ~13% and is actively exiting with no board seats. Short interest ~11.8%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mather Ann | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 7.5M | $3.51 | 2026-03-17 | $26.2M |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 3K | $5.82 | 2025-10-06 | $16K |
| Herd Whitney Wolfe | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 1.4M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $8.5M |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 16.7M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $104.5M |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-05-26Internal
Value trap / NO-GO (7/10 conviction)
110-agent deep dive (Sprints 12–14). 'Cheap' at ~0.4× EV/rev but 8 consecutive quarters of paying-user decline = death spiral for a network-effects business. The cheap valuation reflects terminal decline, not opportunity.
Bumble Inc valuation questions
Is Bumble Inc (BMBL) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Bumble Inc trades below: $2.72 today versus a $4.34 estimate, about +60%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Bumble Inc's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for BMBL is $4.34. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.50, base $4.34, bull $5.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Bumble Inc's forward P/E ratio?
Bumble Inc (BMBL) trades at a forward P/E of 2.7×, and 0.4× trailing sales.
What is Bumble Inc's market cap?
Bumble Inc (BMBL) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $413M, and an enterprise value of $765M.
What is the bull and bear case for BMBL?
Valuation scenarios: bull $5.00, base $4.34, bear $3.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.