Bumble Inc (BMBL) valuation at a glance
Bumble Inc (BMBL) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $2.72 versus a $4.34 estimate, that is a 60% upside.
- Price
- $2.72
- Fair value estimate
- $4.34
- Upside
- +60%
- Forward P/E
- 2.7×
- Market cap
- $359M
CompaniesBMBL
BMBL
Bumble Inc
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Communication ServicesConsumer InternetDatingTurnaround
Overview
$2.72+1.5%
Market Cap
$359M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
-14.1%
-14.1%SEC filings
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+59.6%
internal
Conviction
1/5Founder-led dating platform, 'cheap' at ~0.4× sales, but 8 straight quarters of paying-user decline make it a value trap, not a turnaround.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-05-26
Quality Snowflake
Overall 45/100
Value2/2
Future0/2
Past2/4
Health3/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
UNDER REVISION, 2 September 2026. The share count published here, 113 million, does not match the filings. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 states 131,968,314 Class A shares on its cover. At the page's own price of $2.72 that is a market capitalisation near $359M rather than the $413M published, and every per-share and per-multiple figure below follows the wrong count. The operating margin of +31.5% also requires checking against a GAAP operating result that includes a large impairment. Conviction is reduced to the floor pending a rebuild. ORIGINAL TEXT FOLLOWS. Bumble is a contrarian turnaround: a 110-agent study (Sprints 12–14) on a founder-led dating platform trading below 1× sales with a high FCF yield. Subscriber trends and competitive pressure from Match's portfolio are the swing factors, depth of research is high, conviction deliberately low.
Bull Case
Cash FlowHigh FCF yield (~57%); trades at ~0.4× revenue and below book.
BrandDifferentiated women-first brand with global reach.
M&AAt ~$413M cap on $931M revenue, acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE; a take-private at even 1.0× revenue would be ~2× the stock.
Bear Case
Structural DeclinePaying users 2.6M→2.1M over 8 consecutive quarters, structural, not cyclical. Revenue −2.5% YoY, the first-ever annual decline.
Second Brand DyingBadoo revenue −17% YoY; Gen Z shifting to Hinge/Tinder/IRL meetups.
Debt$475M at SOFR+8% (~13% effective), maturing Nov 2028, crushing interest expense against a shrinking top line.
Instability3rd CEO in 3 years; $130M restructuring charge cut ~350 employees (31%). Blackstone (13%) actively exiting.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$359M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$765M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$931M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Forward P/E
2.7×
internal
P/S (TTM)
–
SEC filings
P/B
0.6×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
-14.1%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
-84.3%
SEC filings
Net Margin
-71.0%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$235M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.8×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filings
Short Interest
11.8%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
89.1%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
3.0%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
132.0M
SEC filings
Float
90.0M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.50
Base$4.34
Bull$5.00
Now $2.72
Bear Case
$3.50
Analyst low 12-month target (12 analysts)
Base Case
$4.34
Analyst mean 12-month target (12 analysts)
Bull Case
$5.00
Analyst high 12-month target (12 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$235M
FCF Yield
65.4%
Balance Sheet
$352M net debt
Rev CAGR
2%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 3.0× | – |
| FY23 | – | 1.8× | 23.3× |
| FY24 | – | 0.8× | – |
| FY25 | – | 0.5× | – |
| TTM · | – | 0.5× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 903.5 | 1,052 | 1,072 | 965.7 |
| Cost of Revenue | 249.5 | 307.8 | 318.8 | 281.5 |
| Gross Profit | 654.0 | 744.0 | 752.8 | 684.1 |
| Operating Income | 42.5 | 53.4 | 201.1 | 240.5 |
| EBITDA | 3.1 | 94.9 | (634.7) | (792.7) |
| Net Income | (79.7) | (4.2) | (557.0) | (693.1) |
| Diluted EPS | -0.62 | -0.03 | -4.61 | -6.03 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 402.6 | 355.6 | 204.3 | 175.8 |
| Total Assets | 3,693 | 3,625 | 2,525 | 1,425 |
| Total Debt | 641.9 | 635.4 | 629.5 | 599.4 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,239 | 1,288 | 1,176 | 744.0 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 1,628 | 1,635 | 824.5 | 570.0 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 129.8 | 130.7 | 107.1 | 129.6 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 132.9 | 182.1 | 123.4 | 250.4 |
| Capital Expenditure | (16.3) | (14.9) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.6 | 167.2 | 96.7 | 238.7 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (86.1) | (24.8) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (15.0) | (198.9) | (250.8) | (268.1) |
Figures normalized from Bumble Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-16. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-03-16 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q3 2026 results, revenue stabilization
If the decline rate narrows materially (e.g. −5% vs −14%), the market may re-rate from distress toward a turnaround multiple.
H1 '26
Product
Tech Stack 2.0 / product relaunch
A credible app overhaul could slow paying-user attrition; sequential stabilization would be a sentiment catalyst near 52-week lows.
12–36 mo
M&A
Strategic acquisition or take-private
Acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE at ~$413M cap.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural paying-user attrition | Execution | High | High | 8 consecutive quarters of decline; ARPPU gains cannot offset volume losses of this magnitude indefinitely. |
| Debt at ~13% effective rate | Market/Macro | High | Medium | $475M at SOFR+8% maturing Nov 2028; refinancing risk if FCF deteriorates. |
| Management instability | Key Person | Medium | Medium | Third CEO in three years; no strategic continuity. |
| Demographic headwind | Competition | High | High | Gen Z abandoning the category for Hinge/Tinder/IRL; 'this is Myspace, not Facebook.' |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.61$2.72$8.64
RSI (14)
38
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.10
-12.3%below
200-Day MA
$4.50
-39.6%below
Avg Vol (30d)
3.5M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.61$2.30
Resistance Levels
$3.20$4.00
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc | 29.9M | 22.93% | -20% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 6.6M | 5.02% | +6.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Saba Capital Management, L.P. | 5.3M | 4.09% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Accel Growth Fund V Associates L.L.C. | 5.1M | 3.88% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 4.8M | 3.67% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 4.3M | 3.33% | +168.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 4.3M | 3.30% | -7.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Institutions hold ~89%; insiders ~3%. Blackstone holds ~13% and is actively exiting with no board seats. Short interest ~11.8%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mather Ann | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 7.5M | $3.51 | 2026-03-17 | $26.2M |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 3K | $5.82 | 2025-10-06 | $16K |
| Herd Whitney Wolfe | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 1.4M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $8.5M |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 16.7M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $104.5M |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-02Recomputed from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0001830043
A positive operating margin on a company that lost 785 million at the operating line
This page showed an operating margin of positive 31.5% beside a net margin of negative 71.0%, two numbers that cannot describe the same company on the same revenue. The trailing twelve months this page covers is the four quarters to 31 March 2026, whose revenue of $930,940 thousand matches the $931M published. Operating income across those quarters is negative $338,343, positive $63,658, negative $575,743 and positive $65,254 thousand, which is negative $785,174 thousand, or negative 84.3%. The published figure matches no pairing of operating income and revenue anywhere in this company's filings. It is a data feed's normalised operating margin, computed with the goodwill impairments of the September 2024 and December 2025 quarters stripped out. Those impairments are the single most important fact about this business over the period, and the field that was supposed to report its operating performance was the one field that excluded them. The full year to December 2025 alone shows operating income of negative $805,778 thousand on revenue of $965,658 thousand, so the annual figure is negative 83.4% and the trailing one is not an artefact of quarter selection.
2026-05-26Internal
Value trap / NO-GO (7/10 conviction)
110-agent study (Sprints 12–14). 'Cheap' at ~0.4× EV/rev but 8 consecutive quarters of paying-user decline = death spiral for a network-effects business. The cheap valuation reflects terminal decline, not opportunity.
Sources
Bumble Inc valuation questions
Is Bumble Inc (BMBL) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Bumble Inc trades below: $2.72 today versus a $4.34 estimate, about +60%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Bumble Inc's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for BMBL is $4.34. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.50, base $4.34, bull $5.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Bumble Inc's forward P/E ratio?
Bumble Inc (BMBL) trades at a forward P/E of 2.7×.
What is Bumble Inc's market cap?
Bumble Inc (BMBL) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $359M, and an enterprise value of $765M.
What is the bull and bear case for BMBL?
Valuation scenarios: bull $5.00, base $4.34, bear $3.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.