2026-07-16Internal (24-agent deep research + yfinance ground truth)
DEEP INTEL: PLTK, cheap cash flows, real risks, live sale process
Built from a 24-dimension sourced-fact workflow with all financial numbers locked to yfinance (USD) and every operational claim primary-source cited. Headline setup: 4.3x forward P/E, 31% FCF yield, ~4.4x EV/Adjusted-EBITDA, but a GAAP net loss (-$206M FY25), negative equity (-$463M), a 52% controlling holder (~85% affiliate-held), a Washington AG gambling suit, and a just-suspended dividend. The GAAP loss is a non-cash SuperPlay earn-out mark, not operating deterioration; Adjusted EBITDA held at $753M. Conviction 3/5, a special situation, not a clean compounder.
2026-02-26Playtika FY2025 10-K
The $379M non-cash charge that created the GAAP loss
Playtika recorded $379.4M of expense in FY2025 to mark the SuperPlay contingent-consideration (earn-out) liability up to $734.0M at Dec 31, 2025 (from $354.6M a year earlier). The total 'changes in estimated value of contingent consideration' line was $398.8M. This ran through G&A and pushed GAAP operating income from $460M (FY24) to ~$1M (FY25) and net income to -$206M. The charge is non-cash and is a recognition of SuperPlay OUTPERFORMING, free cash flow was a record $482M and company Adjusted EBITDA held at $753.2M.
2026-04-06Playtika 8-K / press release
Strategic review, Morgan Stanley hired
An independent Special Committee retained Morgan Stanley to evaluate strategic alternatives 'across its portfolio.' The release did not explicitly name a sale, though the market read it as a possible sale or take-private. The company cautioned there is 'no assurance' of a transaction and it will not give interim updates. Shares rose ~17% intraday. History: a Feb 2022 review led to a June 2022 Joffre Capital agreement to buy a ~25.73% stake for $2.2B (~$8.5B implied EV), which Joffre terminated in Dec 2022 citing governance; a 2023 wave of PE interest also went nowhere. With ~85% affiliate-held (the controlling consortium near ~52%) and a 59M float, a controlling-holder take-private is the central speculation.
2026-02-26Playtika Q4/FY2025 results
Dividend suspended at the February 2026 results
Playtika initiated a $0.10/quarter dividend in Feb 2024 ($0.40/yr). At its FY2025 results on Feb 26, 2026 the board suspended the dividend, which yfinance still shows as a ~10% yield, under an updated capital-allocation framework that preserves cash for the remaining SuperPlay earn-out (a $461M payment followed in April 2026) and buybacks. The stock is NOT currently a 10% dividend payer, an important correction versus the stale data feed. Restoration would signal balance-sheet confidence.
2026-05Playtika filings + Sensor Tower
Direct-to-consumer: the margin engine (39% of revenue)
Playtika's own web storefronts pay ~3-4% processing versus Apple/Google's 30%. DTC reached $814.5M in FY2025 (~30% of revenue) and a record $291.8M in Q1 2026 (+63% YoY, ~39% of revenue); management targets ~40%. Momentum accelerated after the Apr 30, 2025 Epic v. Apple link-out ruling, though the Ninth Circuit modified the injunction in Dec 2025 to let Apple charge a 'reasonable commission,' a regulatory swing factor. DTC is the clearest structural margin driver independent of user growth.
2026-06Playtika 10-K + quarterly KPIs
Portfolio shift: casual ~76%, social casino in managed decline
Casual games rose from 58.9% of revenue (FY24) to 70.8% (FY25) to ~76% (Q1 2026). Slotomania fell ~47% YoY (Q3 2025); Bingo Blitz (~$154M Q1 2026) is roughly flat. Growth is SuperPlay-led: Disney Solitaire $123M in Q1 2026 (+72% sequential), plus Dice Dreams, Domino Dreams and June's Journey. KPIs show a smaller-but-richer audience: FY2025 average DAU ~8.5M (roughly flat), DPU +19%, ARPDAU +3.5%, payer conversion 4.4%. Management is running the legacy social-casino book for cash, not growth.
2026-02-03Washington State AG + court dockets
Regulatory: Washington AG sues over 'illegal gambling'
On Feb 3, 2026 Washington AG Nick Brown sued Playtika and Aristocrat, alleging 16 apps (Slotomania, House of Fun, Caesars Slots, WSOP, Bingo Blitz) illegally took over $225M from Washingtonians since Sept 2020 under the state Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act, adding child-targeting claims and seeking to halt operations and provide restitution. Playtika previously paid $38M (with Caesars) to settle the 2020 Wilson case. Parallel class actions proceed in Kentucky and Utah; Google delisted Slotomania/Caesars/WSOP in 13 countries (2023-24). Cases are early-stage.
2026-03-11Playtika Q3 2025 10-Q (debt footnotes)
Debt stack, $1.9B term loan (2028) and $600M notes (2029)
The stack is a $1.9B first-lien term loan due Mar 11, 2028 (~$1,815M face at Sept 2025, ~7.18% all-in, Term SOFR + 2.75%) plus $600M of 4.250% senior unsecured notes due Mar 15, 2029, and an undrawn revolver (cut to $550M in Apr 2025). The only maintenance covenant, a first-lien net-debt ratio of 6.25x, sat at ~1.6x, enormous headroom on company Credit-Adjusted EBITDA (all figures as of Sept 30, 2025). No funded-debt refinancing yet; the 2028 wall is the bear's timing anchor.
2026-07-16yfinance (computed, USD)
The valuation and the de-rating that created it
At $4.11 the market cap is $1.56B and enterprise value $3.30B against $491M TTM free cash flow (31% yield) and $753M company Adjusted EBITDA (~4.4x EV/Adj-EBITDA, 4.3x forward P/E, 0.56x sales). P/S de-rated from ~1.1x (2023) to ~0.55x now, an ~85% fall from the $27 Jan-2021 IPO price. yfinance's GAAP EV/EBITDA (~32x) and P/B are omitted as non-meaningful given the FY25 earn-out charge and negative equity. Analyst mean target $5.05 (+23%), range $3.00-$14.00 across 11 analysts.