Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) valuation at a glance
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $13.40 versus a $19.00 estimate, that is a 42% upside.
- Price
- $13.40
- Fair value estimate
- $19.00
- Upside
- +42%
- Forward P/E
- 4.9×
- Market cap
- $6.44B
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.4×
CompaniesVIPS
Overview
VIPS
Vipshop Holdings Limited
Consumer CyclicalE-CommerceOff-Price RetailChina ADRCapital ReturnNet Cash
$13.40+1.7%
Market Cap
$6.44B
SEC 20-F (FY2025) + Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked via yfinance
P/E (TTM)
5.8×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
-2.3%
-2.3%SEC filing
Gross Margin
23.4%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
12.3%
calculated
Upside to FV
+41.8%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5VIPS is the cheapest profitable name in China e-commerce. It trades at 5.8× earnings, 4.9× forward, 0.41× sales and 2.05× EV/EBITDA, with $3.41B of net cash under a $6.4B market cap, about 53% of it. Strip out the cash and the operating business is priced near 2× EBITDA. FY2025 free cash flow was $794M, a 12.3% yield, and it funds a 4.6% dividend plus buybacks that cut the ordinary share count about 21% in three years ($944M returned in 2025). This isn't a growth story. FY2025 revenue fell 2.3% in renminbi. But Q1 2026 turned back to +1.2% with operating margin up to 9.4%, so the slide looks like it's bottoming. Founders Shen and Hong control 66.4% of the votes, and Tencent owns 13.38%. It's a Cayman and VIE ADR, and that fear plus the no-growth label is most of the discount, not the balance sheet.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-25
Quality Snowflake
Overall 67/100
Value5/5
Future1/3
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Vipshop is the cheapest profitable internet retailer in China on nearly every multiple. It trades at 5.8× trailing earnings, 4.9× forward, 0.41× sales and a startling 2.05× EV/EBITDA, yet the market treats it like a melting ice cube. The balance sheet tells a different story. Against a $6.44B market cap sits $4.47B of cash and short-term investments versus only $1.06B of debt, so net cash is $3.41B, about 53% of the whole company. Enterprise value collapses to roughly $3.0B for a business that earned $1.11B and generated $794M of free cash flow on $15.6B of revenue. The value-trap worry is fair. Revenue drifted from CNY 112.9B in 2023 to 105.9B in 2025, and net income slipped from CNY 8.12B to 7.24B, so this is a value and capital-return idea, not a growth one. But the business isn't broken. It runs a defensible off-price niche, the Vip.com branded-discount model now extended into Shan Shan outlets and an SVIP membership, it earns 23.4% gross and 7.7% operating margins, and Q1 2026 turned back to +1.2% revenue growth with operating margin widening to 9.4%. Management is paying holders to wait. VIPS returned $944.1M to shareholders in 2025 through a 4.6% dividend and a buyback that shrank the ordinary share count about 21% over three years, a double-digit total yield on a low-beta franchise. At 4.9× forward earnings the bet only needs revenue to stop falling. The $3.41B cash pile and a 20-analyst Buy consensus ($18.95 mean target, per yfinance as of June 25 2026) are the upside on top of a yield you already collect.
Bull Case
ValuationCheapest profitable China e-commerce name on every multiple. 5.8× P/E, 4.9× forward, 0.41× P/S, 1.06× P/B, 2.05× EV/EBITDA. That undercuts PDD at 3.0× EV/EBITDA and sits far below BABA, JD and MELI at 14.9× to 23.1×.
Net-Cash Balance SheetNet cash of $3.41B is 53% of the $6.44B market cap, with $4.47B of cash and ST investments against $1.06B of debt. The roughly $3.0B enterprise value prices the operating business at about 2× EBITDA, as if it's winding down.
Cash Flow and Capital ReturnFY2025 free cash flow was $794M, a 12.3% yield. VIPS returned $944.1M to shareholders in 2025, a 4.6% dividend plus buybacks that cut the ordinary share count about 21% in three years. The 2026 plan is a roughly $300M dividend and more repurchases.
Off-Price ResilienceThe discount model is counter-cyclical. When Chinese shoppers trade down they buy more discounted brands, and weak demand leaves brands more excess stock to clear, so both supply and demand grow. A 0.62 beta shows how defensive the stock has been.
Stabilizing FundamentalsQ1 2026 revenue grew 1.2% after a 2.3% drop in FY2025, with operating margin up to 9.4% and gross margin to 24.4%. Active customers reached 41.7M, up 0.9%. SVIP members grew about 9% and now drive 50% to 55% of online spending, the sticky high-value core.
Bear Case
No GrowthRevenue is in a mild secular decline, CNY 112.9B in 2023, 108.4B in 2024, then 105.9B in 2025, with net income down from CNY 8.12B to 7.24B. Buybacks prop up the per-share figures. Q2 2026 guidance still implies down 5% to flat, so stabilization isn't re-acceleration yet.
CompetitionPDD and Temu own extreme value, Tmall and Taobao own branded apparel, and Douyin and Kuaishou keep taking share with live commerce. Customer-acquisition costs are rising across the industry as shoppers turn to rational consumption.
China-ADR and VIE RiskVIPS is a Cayman holding company that controls its China operations through a VIE, listed as a US ADR. That exposes it to HFCAA delisting risk and PRC oversight of overseas listings. A real chunk of the discount is this structural fear, not the fundamentals.
Founder ControlCo-founders Eric Shen (18.84% economic) and Arthur Hong (11.53%) control about 66.4% of the votes through Class B shares at 10 votes each. Minority US holders get the economics with little say over capital allocation or M&A.
FX and MacroResults and the dividend are in renminbi, so a weaker CNY erodes USD returns. China's discretionary spending is soft, with retail sales negative in mid-2026, and apparel is the core category.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.44B
SEC 20-F (FY2025) + Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked via yfinance
Enterprise Value
$3.02B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$15.60B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
5.8×
via financials
Forward P/E
4.9×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
0.4×
via financials
P/B
1.1×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
2.0×
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
-2.3%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
23.4%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
7.7%
SEC filing
Net Margin
7.1%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$794M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
12.3%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.2×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.3×
SEC filing
Short Interest
2.5%
exchange
Institutional Own.
70.9%
13F
Insider Own.
30.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
480.0M
SEC filing
Float
290.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$11.00
Base$19.00
Bull$27.00
Now $13.40
Bear Case
$11.00
China-ADR fear sticks, revenue starts falling again, and the multiple stays near 5× with no credit for net cash. Probability about 25%.
Base Case
$19.00
The multiple re-rates toward 8× as the market credits the net cash, revenue holds flat, and buybacks add to per-share value. Roughly the analyst mean of $18.95. Probability about 50%.
Bull Case
$27.00
China consumption recovers, revenue re-accelerates, and the multiple moves to about 10× with some of the cash deployed or paid out. Probability about 25%.
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
13%
Terminal Growth
2%
Projection
5y
Rev CAGR
0%
Intrinsic / Share
$19.50
Margin of Safety
29%
Owner earnings on $794M of free cash flow, no revenue growth assumed, a 13% discount rate for China-ADR risk, plus the $3.41B of net cash added back. It's deliberately conservative and gives no value to the SVIP mix shift, the outlet REIT, or a consumption recovery.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 8.5× | 0.4× | – |
| FY23 | 7.5× | 0.5× | – |
| FY24 | 5.9× | 0.4× | – |
| FY25 | 8.2× | 0.5× | – |
| TTM · | 5.8× | 0.4× | 2.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIPS | $6.4B | 5.8× | 0.4× | 2.0× | -2.3% | 23.4% | 7.1% |
| PDD | $107.8B | 7.7× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +11.0% | 56.0% | 21.6% |
| BABA | $239.6B | 15.7× | 1.6× | 14.9× | +2.9% | 39.8% | 10.1% |
| JD | $34.4B | 16.9× | 0.2× | 20.8× | +4.9% | 9.3% | 1.1% |
| MELI | $84.1B | 43.8× | 2.6× | 23.1× | +49.0% | 49.5% | 6.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $15,969M | $15,600M | -2.3% |
| Cost of Revenue | $12,218M | $11,993M | -1.8% |
| Gross Profit | $3,751M | $3,607M | -3.8% |
| Operating Expense | $2,426M | $2,432M | +0.2% |
| Operating Income | $1,325M | $1,175M | -11.3% |
| Pre-tax Income | $1,471M | $1,313M | -10.7% |
| Tax Provision | ($341M) | ($265M) | -22.3% |
| Net Income | $1,140M | $1,067M | -6.4% |
| Diluted EPS / ADS | $2.11 | $2.08 | -1.4% |
| Item | Mar 2026 (MRQ) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash + ST Investments | $4,469M | $4,074M cash plus $395M short-term investments |
| Accounts Receivable | $652M | Settlement and merchant receivables |
| Inventory | $681M | Mostly consignment, so low own-inventory risk |
| Total Current Assets | $5,892M | Current ratio 1.26 |
| Total Assets | $11,772M | |
| Current Liabilities | $4,668M | Payables and merchant settlement |
| Total Debt | $1,056M | Borrowings and leases |
| Net Cash | $3,413M | Cash plus STI minus debt, 53% of market cap |
| Stockholders' Equity | $6,075M | P/B 1.06× |
| Working Capital | $1,224M | Positive |
VIPS returned more than it earned in 2025. Buyback and dividends of about $992M topped the $794M of free cash flow, so it's drawing down cash to shrink the share count. The official 2025 total returned was $944.1M.
| Component | FY2024 | FY2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1,345M | $1,098M | Asset-light, consignment-driven |
| Capital Expenditure | ($525M) | ($304M) | Logistics and outlets |
| Free Cash Flow | $820M | $794M | 12.3% FCF yield |
| Dividends Paid | ($248M) | ($264M) | $0.62 per ADS |
| Share Buybacks | ($569M) | ($728M) | Ordinary shares down about 21% in 3 yrs |
| Total Capital Returned | $817M | $992M | Above FCF, a net cash drawdown |
Figures come from the SEC Form 20-F (FY2025) and the Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked against yfinance. Income statement and cash flow are in USD (renminbi converted at 0.147 CNY/USD). The balance sheet is as of March 31, 2026 (most recent quarter). VIPS reports in renminbi, with per-ADS figures.
Catalysts
Aug '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026 earnings and REIT gain
Guidance is RMB 24.5 to 25.8B, down 5% to flat. Watch the active-customer trend, the SVIP mix and whether the Q1 bounce to +1.2% holds. The quarter also books a roughly RMB 5.3B one-time gain from the outlet REIT, which is non-operating.
Q2 '26
Corporate
Outlet REIT lists on the Shanghai exchange
The CICC Vipshop Commercial REIT listed on June 18, 2026. It holds two outlet assets, the Zhengzhou and Harbin Shan Shan Outlets, and Vipshop subscribed for 49%. Deconsolidation books a roughly RMB 5.3B gain in Q2 2026 and brings in about RMB 1.7B of cash.
FY '26
Capital Returnhigh relevance
Larger 2026 dividend and ongoing buyback
Management plans a bigger dividend near $300M for 2026 plus more repurchases under the $1.0B program, which runs through February 2027 with $316M unused at year-end 2025. The stated commitment is to return at least 75% of FY2025 non-GAAP net income.
H2 '26
Macro
China consumer stimulus
Broad trade-in and consumption-support programs cover autos, appliances and electronics and lift sentiment. Apparel isn't subsidized directly, so the help is indirect through a stronger discretionary backdrop.
2026
Corporate
Possible Hong Kong listing
Press reports, still at the rumor stage with advisers said to be engaged, point to a possible Hong Kong listing. That would widen the shareholder base and ease some of the US delisting overhang. Unconfirmed.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China-ADR delisting (HFCAA / PCAOB) and VIE-structure enforceability | Regulatory | High | Medium | VIPS is a Cayman holding company that runs its China business through a VIE, listed as a US ADR. It faces delisting risk under the HFCAA and PRC oversight of overseas listings. Much of the valuation gap is this structural fear rather than the numbers. |
| Revenue stagnation and an active-customer plateau | Execution | High | High | CNY revenue fell every year from 2023 to 2025 and active customers are roughly flat near 41.7M. The thesis needs the line to stabilize, and Q2 2026 guidance still points to down 5% to flat. |
| Competition from PDD and Temu, Tmall and Taobao, JD and Douyin live-commerce | Competition | Medium | High | Pressure spans every price tier, and interest-based and live-stream commerce target Vipshop's apparel and cosmetics shoppers. Margins have held so far, but the category is contested and the customer base isn't growing. |
| Founder super-voting control near 66% of votes | Governance | Medium | Certain | Shen (18.84% economic) and Hong (11.53%) hold about 66.4% of the votes through Class B shares at 10 votes each. Minority US holders have economic rights but little say over capital allocation or M&A. |
| RMB / USD translation and China consumption macro | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Results and the dividend are in renminbi, so CNY weakness cuts USD returns. Soft Chinese discretionary spending, with retail sales negative in mid-2026, hits the core apparel category. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$13.00$13.40$21.08
RSI (14)
32.5
neutral
50-Day MA
$14.25
-6.0%below
200-Day MA
$16.54
-19.0%below
Avg Vol (30d)
2.5M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$13.00$12.31$11.50
Resistance Levels
$14.25$16.54$17.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Founder and CEO Eric Shen (18.84% economic) and co-founder Arthur Hong (11.53%) together control about 66.4% of the votes through Class B shares, which carry 10 votes each and convert one-for-one to Class A. Tencent holds 13.38% and names one director, Martin Lau. JD.com, a roughly 5.5% holder after the 2017 strategic deal, no longer shows up as a 5%-plus owner in the FY2025 20-F. Combined founder economics are about 30%. Institutions own roughly 71% by yfinance, which partly counts the founder and Tencent stakes. Insider trading is minimal, so the real signal is capital allocation, and that has been heavily shareholder-friendly.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ya Shen | Founder, Chairman & CEO | Hold | 18.84% economic | n/a | FY2025 20-F | ~66.4% of votes |
| Arthur Xiaobo Hong | Co-Founder, Director | Hold | 11.53% economic | n/a | FY2025 20-F | Class B super-voting |
| Tencent (Mobility) | Strategic Shareholder | Hold | 13.38% | n/a | FY2025 20-F | 1 board seat (M. Lau) |
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIPS | $6.4B | 5.8× | 0.4× | 2.0× | -2.3% | 23.4% | 7.1% |
| PDD | $107.8B | 7.7× | 1.6× | 3.0× | +11.0% | 56.0% | 21.6% |
| BABA | $239.6B | 15.7× | 1.6× | 14.9× | +2.9% | 39.8% | 10.1% |
| JD | $34.4B | 16.9× | 0.2× | 20.8× | +4.9% | 9.3% | 1.1% |
| MELI | $84.1B | 43.8× | 2.6× | 23.1× | +49.0% | 49.5% | 6.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-25Internal (40-agent workflow + Sprint 2 validation)
Sprint 2 validation, every figure re-checked against primary filings
Two passes built this page. First, a deterministic yfinance harvest computed every valuation and financial number in USD from raw statements, so no figure here comes from a language model. Then a validation sprint re-checked each claim against its primary source. It pulled the newer FY2025 20-F and corrected the ownership stakes (Shen 18.84% and 66.4% of votes, Hong 11.53%, Tencent 13.38%, replacing stale FY2024 figures), fixed the outlet REIT to its two real assets in Zhengzhou and Harbin (an earlier transcript had garbled in a third city), and re-sourced the SVIP and REIT details to the Q1 2026 earnings call. Q1 2026 results, the $944.1M 2025 capital return, the buyback program, and the FY revenue, net income and EPS history all matched the filings. Conviction 4 of 5.
2026-06-25yfinance (computed, USD)
Net cash is more than half the market cap
Market cap is $6.44B. Cash and short-term investments of $4.47B against $1.06B of debt leave $3.41B of net cash, 53% of the cap. Enterprise value falls to about $3.0B against $1.47B of EBITDA (2.05×) and $15.6B of revenue (0.19× EV/sales). Net income is $1.11B over the trailing year, a 7.1% margin, on a 23.4% gross margin. The 5.8× P/E sits at the low end of its three-year range of 5.9× to 8.5×, with the ADS near its 52-week low of $13.00 to $21.08.
2026-05-21PR Newswire (Q1 2026 results)
Q1 2026, revenue back to growth with wider margins
Q1 2026 revenue was RMB 26.6B, up 1.2% after FY2025 fell 2.3%. Income from operations was RMB 2.5B at a 9.4% margin, up from 8.7%, and gross margin rose to 24.4% from 23.2%. Net income to shareholders was RMB 2.2B, about $320M, up 13.6%. Active customers reached 41.7M, up 0.9%, and GMV was RMB 56.9B, up 8.6%. Q2 2026 guidance is RMB 24.5 to 25.8B, down 5% to flat. SVIP members grew about 9% and account for 50% to 55% of online spending.
2026-06-25PR Newswire and Q4 2025 call
Capital return, $944.1M in 2025 and a 75% non-GAAP commitment
VIPS returned $944.1M to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks. The current $1.0B repurchase program runs through February 2027, with $316.0M unused at December 31, 2025, after $305.4M of ADS buybacks in Q4 alone. The 2025 dividend is $0.62 per ADS, with a record date of April 10 and payment on April 24, 2026. Management committed to returning at least 75% of FY2025 non-GAAP net income and plans a larger dividend near $300M for 2026. Earlier programs ran $1.0B in March 2022 and $500M in March 2023. Buybacks have cut the ordinary share count about 21% over three years, from 139.6M to 110.0M.
2026-06-25SEC Form 20-F (FY2025)
Ownership and control, founders hold 66.4% of votes
Per the FY2025 20-F, as of March 31, 2026, Eric Shen owns 18.84% and controls about 66.4% of the votes through Class B shares held via Elegant Motion Holdings and the family trust. Co-founder Arthur Hong owns 11.53%. Tencent Mobility holds 13.38% and appoints one director, Martin Lau. JD.com, near 5.5% after the December 2017 strategic investment, no longer appears as a 5%-plus holder. VIPS is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and runs its China business through consolidated VIEs (Vipshop E-Commerce, Vipshop Information, Pin Jun Tong).
2026-06-18Q1 2026 call and SSE listing
Outlet REIT lists, a roughly RMB 5.3B one-time gain
On June 18, 2026 the CICC Vipshop Commercial REIT listed on the Shanghai exchange. It holds two outlet properties, the Zhengzhou Shan Shan Outlets in Henan and the Harbin Shan Shan Outlets in Heilongjiang, both run for about a decade. Vipshop subscribed for 49% of the REIT and deconsolidates the assets, which books a roughly RMB 5.3B one-time gain in Q2 2026 and brings in about RMB 1.7B of cash. The gain is non-operating and doesn't reflect retail earnings power. An earlier transcript mislabeled a third city; the REIT holds only the Zhengzhou and Harbin assets.
2026-06-25Internal (research)
Business model, asset-light off-price plus sticky SVIP
Vip.com sells authentic branded apparel, footwear, cosmetics and home goods at deep discounts, largely on consignment, which limits its own markdown risk. The SVIP paid membership is the moat. It drives 50% to 55% of online spending and retains far better than standard users, turning bargain shopping into recurring demand that supports the cash flow. Shan Shan Outlets carries the model into physical retail. The whole thing is counter-cyclical, since soft consumption pushes shoppers toward discounted brands and leaves brands more stock to clear.
Vipshop Holdings Limited valuation questions
Is Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Vipshop Holdings Limited trades below: $13.40 today versus a $19.00 estimate, about +42%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Vipshop Holdings Limited's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for VIPS is $19.00. Its valuation scenarios span bear $11.00, base $19.00, bull $27.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Vipshop Holdings Limited's forward P/E ratio?
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) trades at a forward P/E of 4.9×, and 0.4× trailing sales.
What is Vipshop Holdings Limited's market cap?
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $6.44B, and an enterprise value of $3.02B.
What is the bull and bear case for VIPS?
Valuation scenarios: bull $27.00, base $19.00, bear $11.00. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.