Tuya Inc (TUYA) valuation at a glance
Tuya Inc (TUYA) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $2.21 versus a $3.20 estimate, that is a 45% upside.
- Price
- $2.21
- Fair value estimate
- $3.20
- Upside
- +45%
- Forward P/E
- 16.0×
- Market cap
- $1.30B
- P/S (TTM)
- 3.8×
CompaniesTUYA
Overview
TUYA
Tuya Inc
TechnologyIoTCloud PlatformChina ADRNet Cash
$2.21+5.2%
Market Cap
$1.30B
SEC 20-F / Q1 2025 6-K
P/E (TTM)
20.7×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
7.8%
+7.8%SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
3.1%
calculated
Upside to FV
+44.8%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5IoT PaaS with ~$1.02B cash (>70% of market cap), an F-score of 9, and an HK dual listing as delisting insurance.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-01
Quality Snowflake
Overall 79/100
Value3/5
Future2/3
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend2/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Tuya provides an IoT development platform to device makers (844K developers, 589M+ device activations). The story is the balance sheet: ~$1.02B cash (≈73–93% of market cap, per the Q1 2025 6-K, upgraded from $854M), giving an enterprise value near zero on a business that posted FY2025 net income of $57.9M and a Piotroski F-score of 9. The VIE was deregistered in 2025 and semi-annual dividends prove the cash is accessible. A Hong Kong dual-primary listing (2391.HK) is a genuine escape hatch if US-listed Chinese ADRs are delisted.
Bull Case
Balance SheetCash ~$1.02B ≈73–93% of market cap; EV near zero (~$76M) on $66.6M/quarter revenue — EV/Rev ~0.3–1.1×.
QualityF-score 9; FY2025 net income $57.9M; revenue +7.8% with SaaS +13.4%; 4.7% dividend yield.
StructureHK dual-primary listing (2391.HK) since 2022; VIE deregistered 2025; dividends prove cash is not trapped.
AI‘Hey Tuya’ AI assistant; 155M daily AI interactions; AI app revenue +16.9% YoY.
Bear Case
GrowthRevenue growth only ~8% — a cash story, not a compounder.
China ADRHFCAA / delisting tail risk persists despite the HK hedge; a prominent US official called for sanctions in 2021 (no action taken).
Security ProfileThird-party reports of devices sending data to China keep a national-security overhang on the name.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.30B
SEC 20-F / Q1 2025 6-K
Enterprise Value
$76M
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$322M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
20.7×
via financials
Forward P/E
16.0×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
3.8×
via financials
P/B
1.3×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
calculated
PEG
0.5×
calculated
Revenue Growth
7.8%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
6.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
17.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$40M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
3.1%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
6.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
4.0%
exchange
Institutional Own.
35.0%
13F
Insider Own.
30.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
580.0M
SEC filing
Float
300.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$1.50
Base$3.20
Bull$4.50
Now $2.21
Bear Case
$1.50
Cash discounted for China-ADR / sanctions risk
Base Case
$3.20
EV re-rate toward cash-adjusted earnings
Bull Case
$4.50
Growth reaccelerates; ADR discount closes
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$21M
FCF Yield
1.6%
Balance Sheet
$941M net cash
Rev CAGR
16%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 4.7× | – |
| FY23 | – | 5.3× | – |
| FY24 | 194.5× | 3.3× | – |
| FY25 | 21.7× | 3.9× | 22.3× |
| TTM · | 19.9× | 3.7× | 13.2× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TUYA | $1.22B | 19.9× | 3.7× | 13.2× | +8.0% | 48.0% | 19.0% |
| VNET | $2.66B | – | 0.3× | 9.7× | +20.0% | 22.0% | -5.0% |
| WB | $1.88B | 5.4× | 1.1× | 2.2× | +6.0% | 75.0% | 21.0% |
| SOHU | $397M | 1.7× | 0.7× | 23.8× | +4.0% | 78.0% | 35.0% |
| GDS | $6.71B | 19.7× | 0.6× | 7.8× | +24.0% | 25.0% | 23.0% |
| MOMO | $855M | 8.6× | 0.1× | – | -5.0% | 38.0% | 7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 208.2 | 230.0 | 298.6 | 321.8 |
| Cost of Revenue | 118.7 | 123.3 | 157.2 | 166.8 |
| Gross Profit | 89.4 | 106.7 | 141.4 | 155.0 |
| Operating Income | (168.2) | (105.8) | (47.6) | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | (160.0) | (99.3) | (42.6) | 16.7 |
| Net Income | (146.2) | (60.3) | 5.0 | 57.9 |
| Diluted EPS | -0.26 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 133.2 | 498.7 | 653.3 | 890.7 |
| Total Assets | 1,056 | 1,066 | 1,104 | 1,133 |
| Total Debt | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| Total Liabilities | 94.0 | 95.8 | 96.3 | 109.9 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 962.2 | 970.6 | 1,007 | 1,023 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 553.0 | 574.6 | 565.8 | 611.3 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | (70.7) | 36.4 | 80.4 | 81.0 |
| Capital Expenditure | (0.7) | (1.5) | (13.1) | (7.1) |
| Free Cash Flow | (71.4) | 34.9 | 67.3 | 73.9 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (714.2) | 332.5 | 107.4 | 226.0 |
| Financing Cash Flow | (38.6) | (2.2) | (33.2) | (69.9) |
Figures normalized from Tuya Inc.'s SEC 20-F filed 2026-04-22. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-04-22 ↗
Catalysts
Aug '26
Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings
Watch revenue reacceleration, SaaS mix and margin.
2026
Capital
Potential buyback announcement
Cash-rich balance sheet supports return of capital.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China ADR / HFCAA delisting | Regulatory | Medium | Medium | Mitigated by HK dual listing (2391.HK); shares convertible via broker. |
| US sanctions tail risk | Regulatory | High | Low | A single executive order could end the ADR; binary and low-probability (~5–10%). |
| Low growth | Execution | Low | Medium | Cash provides a floor but limits multiple expansion. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$1.50$2.21$3.10
RSI (14)
55
neutral
50-Day MA
$2.05
+7.8%above
200-Day MA
$2.30
-3.9%below
Avg Vol (30d)
5M
+8%vs average
Support Levels
$2.05$1.80
Resistance Levels
$2.40$2.70
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor @ 65 Pte. Ltd. | 74.6M | 13.74% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 11.7M | 2.16% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| FIL LTD | 11.3M | 2.08% | +26.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 8.8M | 1.62% | +121.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 6.1M | 1.13% | +12.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Nuveen, LLC | 4.9M | 0.90% | -8.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Manufacturers Life Insurance Co. | 3.8M | 0.71% | +106.4% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~30%; the VIE was deregistered in 2025 and dividends are paid semi-annually.
No open-market insider transactions
None reported in the recent Form 4 window.
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TUYA | $1.22B | 19.9× | 3.7× | 13.2× | +8.0% | 48.0% | 19.0% |
| VNET | $2.66B | – | 0.3× | 9.7× | +20.0% | 22.0% | -5.0% |
| WB | $1.88B | 5.4× | 1.1× | 2.2× | +6.0% | 75.0% | 21.0% |
| SOHU | $397M | 1.7× | 0.7× | 23.8× | +4.0% | 78.0% | 35.0% |
| GDS | $6.71B | 19.7× | 0.6× | 7.8× | +24.0% | 25.0% | 23.0% |
| MOMO | $855M | 8.6× | 0.1× | – | -5.0% | 38.0% | 7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-01Internal
Best-protected Chinese ADR
The HK dual-primary listing (2391.HK) is the insurance policy: if the US delists, holders can convert to the Hong Kong line via a broker. Cash upgraded to $1,024M per the Q1 2025 6-K (was $854M).
Tuya Inc valuation questions
Is Tuya Inc (TUYA) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Tuya Inc trades below: $2.21 today versus a $3.20 estimate, about +45%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Tuya Inc's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for TUYA is $3.20. Its valuation scenarios span bear $1.50, base $3.20, bull $4.50. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Tuya Inc's forward P/E ratio?
Tuya Inc (TUYA) trades at a forward P/E of 16.0×, and 3.8× trailing sales.
What is Tuya Inc's market cap?
Tuya Inc (TUYA) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $1.30B, and an enterprise value of $76M.
What is the bull and bear case for TUYA?
Valuation scenarios: bull $4.50, base $3.20, bear $1.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.