Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $28.38 versus a $40.00 estimate, that is a 41% upside.
- Price
- $28.38
- Fair value estimate
- $40.00
- Upside
- +41%
- Market cap
- $1.02B
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.0×
Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.
Overview
Thesis
Key Metrics
Valuation
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | – | – | – |
| FY25 | – | – | – |
| TTM · | 12.3× | 1.0× | 5.6× |
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PXED | $1.02B | 12.3× | 1.0× | 5.6× | +0.9% | 56.5% | 8.2% |
| PRDO | $2.07B | 12.0× | 2.4× | 5.8× | +1.8% | 79.9% | 20.6% |
| LOPE | $3.84B | 17.8× | 3.4× | 10.1× | +6.7% | 53.3% | 19.6% |
| APEI | $0.83B | 18.5× | 1.3× | 9.1× | +5.5% | 55.9% | 6.8% |
| LINC | $0.82B | 35.2× | 1.4× | 16.5× | +22.4% | 59.8% | 4.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | 9M FY2025 | 9M FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue Third quarter was $271.8M against $271.7M, flat to the decimal | $749.8M | $756.3M | +0.9% |
| Instructional and support Grew broadly with revenue, so the teaching cost base is stable | $325.8M | $330.8M | +1.5% |
| General and administrative Carries the $47.6M of share-based compensation and higher advertising | $255.7M | $302.4M | +18.3% |
| Strategic alternatives, restructuring and other Includes roughly $5M of IPO offering costs, expensed because no proceeds were received | $17.9M | $31.7M | +77.1% |
| Total costs and expenses | $599.4M | $664.9M | +10.9% |
| Operating income The $59.0M decline against $59.5M of increased charges | $150.4M | $91.4M | -39.2% |
| Net income attributable to the company Diluted EPS $1.69 against $3.08 | $116.4M | $65.4M | -43.8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) Margin 24.9% against 24.8%. Adds back all share-based compensation | $185.8M | $188.1M | +1.2% |
| Adjusted net income (non-GAAP) Flat. Adjusted diluted EPS $3.40 against $3.49 | $131.9M | $132.0M | +0.1% |
| Share-based compensation Third quarter alone was $8.5M, the first clean read on the ongoing rate | $1.9M | $47.6M | n/m |
| Average total degreed enrolment Third quarter 85,300 against 84,800 | 82,700 | 84,500 | +2.2% |
| Line Item | Aug 31 2025 | May 31 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $136.5M | $155.0M | +13.6% |
| Marketable securities Current $75.1M plus non-current $36.4M. Cash was moved into a treasury portfolio | $21.8M | $111.4M | +410.6% |
| Restricted cash Excluded from the liquidity figure used on this page | $36.5M | $3.0M | -91.9% |
| Accounts receivable, net A point in the academic year against a fiscal year end. No 31 May 2025 balance sheet is published in this filing | $59.0M | $96.5M | +63.6% |
| Total assets | $493.6M | $608.6M | +23.3% |
| Deferred revenue Cash collected ahead of teaching, and subject to the same seasonal caveat | $37.2M | $76.0M | +104.4% |
| Borrowings None. A senior secured revolving credit facility was entered in November 2025 and is undrawn | – | – | n/m |
| Operating lease liabilities Current and long-term. Outside the borrowings figure and outside enterprise value | $73.3M | $65.7M | -10.4% |
| Total liabilities | $253.5M | $282.2M | +11.3% |
| Company shareholders' equity Converted from a limited partnership to a corporation at the IPO | $246.8M | $324.3M | +31.4% |
| Line Item | 9M FY2025 | 9M FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow More than doubled, while reported operating income fell 39.2% | $51.8M | $116.7M | +125.3% |
| Purchases of property and equipment An asset-light online university. Capital expenditure is under 2% of revenue | $16.4M | $15.0M | -8.5% |
| Free cash flow Trailing twelve months $131.2M, a 12.8% yield on the market capitalisation | $35.4M | $101.7M | +187.5% |
| Dividends paid $0.21 a quarter, begun after the listing. Covered 4.3 times by trailing free cash flow | – | $17.4M | n/m |
| Common stock repurchased 0.1 million shares at an average of $29.29, under a $50M authorisation | – | $4.0M | n/m |
| Capital distributions to limited partners The pre-IPO structure distributed to its partners. That route closed at the listing | $134.0M | – | n/m |
Catalysts
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Substantially all of the University's revenue derives from federal student aid under Title IV of the Higher Education Act, subject to the 90/10 Rule, cohort default rate tests and state authorisation. | Regulation | High | Possible | The 10-K states that failing to maintain state authorisation would mean losing the ability to participate in Title IV programmes. That single dependency is why a debt-free business growing enrolment trades at 3.5 times sustainable EBITDA, and no amount of balance-sheet strength offsets it. It is also not a risk that arrives gradually: it arrives as a rule change, a negotiated rulemaking outcome or an enforcement action. |
| Revenue growth has decelerated from 6.0% in fiscal 2025 to 0.9% across the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and third-quarter revenue was flat at $271.8M against $271.7M. | Growth | High | Certain | At 3.5 times sustainable EBITDA the case does not require growth, but it does require the absence of decline. Enrolment rose 0.6% in the quarter and 2.2% across nine months, so volume is still going the right way and price is not. If revenue per student erodes while enrolment is flat, the fixed cost base that holds the margin at 24.9% works against it just as fast. |
| Adjusted EBITDA, the measure guidance is stated in, adds back all share-based compensation. The third quarter carried $8.5M of it against $0.6M a year earlier, which annualises to roughly $33.8M of ongoing cost. | Earnings Quality | medium | Certain | Guided adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M therefore overstates what an owner keeps by something like $34M. Every scenario on this page is struck on sustainable EBITDA of about $214M instead, which moves the enterprise multiple from 3.1 times to 3.5 times. The nine-month figure of $47.6M is not the run rate; $39.2M of it fell in the first two quarters as an IPO catch-up. |
| The IPO was entirely secondary. Existing shareholders sold 4,887,500 shares at $32.00 and the company issued nothing and received nothing. | Ownership | medium | Certain | No capital was raised for the business, $156.4M went to prior owners, and the shares now trade 11.3% below the price those owners sold at. A registered holder base that bought at $32.00 eight months ago is an overhang on any recovery, and the filing does not disclose remaining lock-up terms on this page's sources. |
| Accounts receivable rose 63.6% to $96.5M while nine-month revenue was flat, and the filing does not contain the comparison that would explain it. | Data Integrity | medium | Certain | The 10-Q compares 31 May 2026 with the 31 August 2025 fiscal year end, which is a different point in the academic year, and it publishes no balance sheet for 31 May 2025. Deferred revenue rose 104.4% over the same span, which points the opposite way, and the provision for credit losses fell from $47.7M in fiscal 2025 to $36.4M on the trailing year. No conclusion is drawn here because the filing does not support one. |
| Average daily volume over the last thirty sessions is about 132,000 shares, roughly $3.7M, and the shares have traded for only 218 sessions. | Liquidity | medium | Certain | No figure on this page can be called a 52-week range, because a 52-week range does not yet exist. The high and low quoted are since listing on 9 October 2025, and the $47.08 intraday high is a listing-day print far above any close, the highest of which is $38.15. Short interest is 14.1% of the float against that volume, and only eight analysts publish a target. |
| Institutional and insider ownership percentages are not published on this page. | Data Integrity | Low | Certain | The company listed in October 2025 and the ownership record is still forming, so a figure taken from a data feed today would be a snapshot of an incomplete register rather than a stable holding pattern. The float is shown as approximately the full share count because the selling shareholders' remaining position is not broken out in the sources used here. |
Technical Snapshot
Ownership & Insider Activity
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PXED | $1.02B | 12.3× | 1.0× | 5.6× | +0.9% | 56.5% | 8.2% |
| PRDO | $2.07B | 12.0× | 2.4× | 5.8× | +1.8% | 79.9% | 20.6% |
| LOPE | $3.84B | 17.8× | 3.4× | 10.1× | +6.7% | 53.3% | 19.6% |
| APEI | $0.83B | 18.5× | 1.3× | 9.1× | +5.5% | 55.9% | 6.8% |
| LINC | $0.82B | 35.2× | 1.4× | 16.5× | +22.4% | 59.8% | 4.0% |
Research Notes
Sources
Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. valuation questions
Is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. trades below: $28.38 today versus a $40.00 estimate, about +41%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.'s fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for PXED is $40.00. Its valuation scenarios span bear $27.30, base $40.00, bull $52.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.'s market cap?
Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $1.02B, and an enterprise value of $759M.
What is the bull and bear case for PXED?
Valuation scenarios: bull $52.00, base $40.00, bear $27.30. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.