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Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) valuation at a glance

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $28.38 versus a $40.00 estimate, that is a 41% upside.

Price
$28.38
Fair value estimate
$40.00
Upside
+41%
Market cap
$1.02B
P/S (TTM)
1.0×
PXED

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveUniversity of PhoenixNet CashPost IPOTitle IVDividendBuyback

Overview

$28.38+0.9%
Compare
Market Cap
$1.02B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
12.3×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
0.9%
+0.9%SEC filings
Gross Margin
56.5%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
12.8%
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+40.9%
The company reports no borrowings, so enterprise val
Conviction
4/5
Phoenix Education Partners owns the University of Phoenix and listed on 9 October 2025. Reported operating income for the nine months to 31 May 2026 fell 39.2%, from $150.4M to $91.4M, which reads like a business coming apart. It is not. Share-based compensation rose $45.7M and strategic and restructuring costs rose $13.8M over the same period, $59.5M against an operating income decline of $59.0M. The two charges account for 100.8% of the fall. On the company's own adjusted measure, nine-month EBITDA rose 1.2% to $188.1M and adjusted net income was flat at $132.0M. The balance sheet carries no borrowings and $266.5M of cash and marketable securities, 26.1% of the market capitalisation, so enterprise value is $758.7M against guided full-year adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 21d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
ValueFuturePastHealthDividend
Value5/5
Future1/2
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.

Thesis

The University of Phoenix has taught working adults for nearly five decades, almost entirely online, and almost entirely funded by federal student aid under Title IV of the Higher Education Act. Average total degreed enrolment was 81,900 in fiscal 2025, 66,300 undergraduate and 15,600 graduate, and it has been rising slowly since: 84,500 across the first nine months of fiscal 2026 against 82,700, and 85,300 in the third quarter against 84,800. Revenue tracks that. Fiscal 2025 grew 6.0% to $1,007.2M, and the nine months to 31 May 2026 grew 0.9% to $756.3M. Nothing in the operating record is dramatic in either direction. The reported earnings are dramatic, and that is the whole of the opportunity. Operating income for those nine months fell 39.2%, from $150.4M to $91.4M. Diluted earnings per share fell 45.1%, from $3.08 to $1.69. A screen looking at the income statement sees a company whose profit almost halved on flat revenue, which is normally the signature of a business losing pricing power. Take the two charges out and nothing of the sort happened. Share-based compensation went from $1.9M to $47.6M, a $45.7M increase, and the company says plainly in its own release that the fall in net income was primarily due to share-based compensation resulting from the IPO. Strategic alternatives, restructuring and other costs rose $13.8M to $31.7M. Together that is $59.5M against a $59.0M decline, so the charges account for 100.8% of it and the underlying business improved fractionally. The company's adjusted figures say the same thing without the arithmetic: nine-month adjusted EBITDA rose 1.2% to $188.1M, adjusted net income was $132.0M against $131.9M, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.9% against 24.8%. Now the balance sheet, which is what makes this more than an accounting curiosity. There are no borrowings at all. Cash and marketable securities are $266.5M, 26.1% of the market capitalisation, and that is after paying $17.4M of dividends and buying back $4.0M of stock in the first nine months. Free cash flow over the trailing year was $131.2M against a market capitalisation of $1,023.0M, a 12.8% yield. Enterprise value is $758.7M. Guidance for the full fiscal year is revenue of $1,020M to $1,025M and adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M, so the enterprise is priced at 3.1 times the midpoint of the number management is guiding to. That figure flatters, because adjusted EBITDA adds back every dollar of share-based compensation including the part that recurs. The third quarter carried $8.5M of it, the first clean read after the IPO catch-up, and annualising that gives $33.8M. Take it out and sustainable EBITDA is about $214M, which puts the enterprise at 3.5 times. Perdoceo, the closest listed comparison, trades at 5.8 times. What the buyer is underwriting is not a turnaround. It is that a slowly growing, debt-free, cash-generative university keeps enrolling students under a regulatory regime that could change, and that the market stops reading an IPO compensation charge as an earnings collapse.
Bull Case
Bear Case

Key Metrics

Market Cap
$1.02B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$759M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$1.01B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
12.3×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
The company reports no borrowings, so enterprise val
P/S (TTM)
1.0×
SEC filings
P/B
3.2×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
5.6×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
0.9%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
56.5%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
11.2%
SEC filings
Net Margin
8.2%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$131M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
12.8%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.9×
SEC filings
Short Interest
14.1%
Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and initial public offering note
Institutional Own.
Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and initial public offering note
Insider Own.
Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and initial public offering note
Shares Out.
36.0M
SEC filings
Float
36.0M
Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and initial public offering note

Valuation

Price vs Fair Value
Bear$27.30
Base$40.00
Bull$52.00
Now $28.38
Bear Case
$27.30
Enrolment rolls over or a Title IV rule change bites, and sustainable EBITDA falls to $180M against roughly $214M today. The market pays 4.0 times, below the whole listed peer group, because a regulated revenue base with no growth deserves it. Enterprise value $720M plus $266.5M of cash and securities less the $2.2M minority, over 36.0 million shares. Roughly where the shares trade now, which is the point: the downside case is not a loss, it is dead money.
Base Case
$40.00
Guidance holds, full-year adjusted EBITDA lands at the $248M midpoint, and the ongoing $33.8M of share-based compensation is treated as the real cost it is, leaving sustainable EBITDA near $214M. The market pays 5.5 times, just under the 5.8 times Perdoceo trades at and far under Grand Canyon at 10.1 times. Enterprise value $1,177M plus $266.5M of cash and securities less the minority, over 36.0 million shares. This sits 3.3% below the mean analyst target of $41.38.
Bull Case
$52.00
Enrolment growth continues into fiscal 2027, the IPO compensation charge annualises away, and sustainable EBITDA reaches $230M. On a clean set of reported numbers with no listing distortion, the market pays 7.0 times, still below Grand Canyon and American Public Education. Enterprise value $1,610M plus the cash and securities less the minority, over 36.0 million shares.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Full Model
Historical Multiples
Historical multiples
YearP/EP/SEV/EBITDA
FY24
FY25
TTM ·12.3×1.0×5.6×
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
PXED$1.02B12.3×1.0×5.6×+0.9%56.5%8.2%
PRDO$2.07B12.0×2.4×5.8×+1.8%79.9%20.6%
LOPE$3.84B17.8×3.4×10.1×+6.7%53.3%19.6%
APEI$0.83B18.5×1.3×9.1×+5.5%55.9%6.8%
LINC$0.82B35.2×1.4×16.5×+22.4%59.8%4.0%

Financials

Income statement
Line Item9M FY20259M FY2026YoY
Net revenue Third quarter was $271.8M against $271.7M, flat to the decimal$749.8M$756.3M+0.9%
Instructional and support Grew broadly with revenue, so the teaching cost base is stable$325.8M$330.8M+1.5%
General and administrative Carries the $47.6M of share-based compensation and higher advertising$255.7M$302.4M+18.3%
Strategic alternatives, restructuring and other Includes roughly $5M of IPO offering costs, expensed because no proceeds were received$17.9M$31.7M+77.1%
Total costs and expenses$599.4M$664.9M+10.9%
Operating income The $59.0M decline against $59.5M of increased charges$150.4M$91.4M-39.2%
Net income attributable to the company Diluted EPS $1.69 against $3.08$116.4M$65.4M-43.8%
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) Margin 24.9% against 24.8%. Adds back all share-based compensation$185.8M$188.1M+1.2%
Adjusted net income (non-GAAP) Flat. Adjusted diluted EPS $3.40 against $3.49$131.9M$132.0M+0.1%
Share-based compensation Third quarter alone was $8.5M, the first clean read on the ongoing rate$1.9M$47.6Mn/m
Average total degreed enrolment Third quarter 85,300 against 84,80082,70084,500+2.2%
Balance sheet
Line ItemAug 31 2025May 31 2026Change
Cash & Equivalents$136.5M$155.0M+13.6%
Marketable securities Current $75.1M plus non-current $36.4M. Cash was moved into a treasury portfolio$21.8M$111.4M+410.6%
Restricted cash Excluded from the liquidity figure used on this page$36.5M$3.0M-91.9%
Accounts receivable, net A point in the academic year against a fiscal year end. No 31 May 2025 balance sheet is published in this filing$59.0M$96.5M+63.6%
Total assets$493.6M$608.6M+23.3%
Deferred revenue Cash collected ahead of teaching, and subject to the same seasonal caveat$37.2M$76.0M+104.4%
Borrowings None. A senior secured revolving credit facility was entered in November 2025 and is undrawnn/m
Operating lease liabilities Current and long-term. Outside the borrowings figure and outside enterprise value$73.3M$65.7M-10.4%
Total liabilities$253.5M$282.2M+11.3%
Company shareholders' equity Converted from a limited partnership to a corporation at the IPO$246.8M$324.3M+31.4%
Cash flow
Line Item9M FY20259M FY2026YoY
Operating Cash Flow More than doubled, while reported operating income fell 39.2%$51.8M$116.7M+125.3%
Purchases of property and equipment An asset-light online university. Capital expenditure is under 2% of revenue$16.4M$15.0M-8.5%
Free cash flow Trailing twelve months $131.2M, a 12.8% yield on the market capitalisation$35.4M$101.7M+187.5%
Dividends paid $0.21 a quarter, begun after the listing. Covered 4.3 times by trailing free cash flow$17.4Mn/m
Common stock repurchased 0.1 million shares at an average of $29.29, under a $50M authorisation$4.0Mn/m
Capital distributions to limited partners The pre-IPO structure distributed to its partners. That route closed at the listing$134.0Mn/m
Figures come from the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 May 2026, filed 14 July 2026, and the Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 August 2025, filed 20 November 2025. Enrolment, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share are the company's own measures, taken from the reconciliation tables in the third-quarter earnings release. The fiscal year ends 31 August, so the trailing twelve months used throughout is fiscal 2025 less the nine months to 31 May 2025 plus the nine months to 31 May 2026. The subject row of the peer table is recomputed from filings; the peer rows are as the market data feed reports them. Source: 10-Q filed 2026-07-14

Catalysts

Jul 14 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Adjusted earnings flat while reported earnings fell 44%
Third-quarter revenue was $271.8M against $271.7M and net income $39.2M against $53.8M, a fall the company attributed primarily to share-based compensation resulting from the IPO, higher advertising and higher strategic and restructuring expense. Adjusted EBITDA was $78.1M against $83.4M for the quarter but $188.1M against $185.8M across the nine months, and adjusted net income for the nine months was $132.0M against $131.9M.
Q4 FY'26
Guidancehigh relevance
The fourth quarter, and the first full year as a listed company
Full-year guidance is revenue of $1,020M to $1,025M and adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M. Nine months delivered $756.3M and $188.1M, so the implied fourth quarter is roughly $265M of revenue and $58M to $62M of adjusted EBITDA. The number that matters more is the share-based compensation line: the third quarter carried $8.5M, and a fourth quarter near that level would confirm the ongoing rate rather than the IPO catch-up.
Q3 '26
Buyback
A $50M repurchase programme, and $4.0M used above today's price
The board adopted a repurchase programme of up to $50M during the third quarter. The company bought 0.1 million shares for $4.0M at an average of $29.29, which is 3.2% above where the shares trade now, leaving 92% of the authorisation unused. Against a $1.02B market capitalisation the programme is small, but it sits alongside a dividend and no debt.
Oct '25
Listing
An IPO that raised nothing for the company
Existing shareholders sold 4,250,000 shares at $32.00 at the closing on 10 October 2025 and a further 637,500 on 15 October at the same price. The company neither issued nor sold any shares and received none of the $156.4M of proceeds, so its offering costs were expensed rather than charged against capital raised. Prior to the IPO the company owned about 98% of the University; the remainder was converted into 790,714 shares and the University became a wholly-owned subsidiary.
2026-27
Regulationhigh relevance
Title IV, the 90/10 Rule and state authorisation
The University's eligibility rests on Title IV of the Higher Education Act. The 10-K describes the 90/10 Rule limiting the share of eligible tuition revenue that may come from federal programme funds, cohort default rate tests, and state authorisation, and states that failing to maintain state authorisation would mean losing the ability to participate in Title IV programmes. Nothing here is scheduled, which is precisely why it cannot be modelled and why the shares carry the multiple they do.
2026-27
Balance Sheet
What happens to $266.5M of cash and no debt
Cash and marketable securities rose from $194.8M at the fiscal year end to $269.4M including restricted cash, while the company paid $17.4M of dividends and repurchased $4.0M of stock. Trailing free cash flow is $131.2M against a $30.3M dividend. The undrawn revolving credit facility entered in November 2025 adds capacity on top. The open question is whether that accumulates, returns to holders, or funds an acquisition.

Risks

Risk matrix
RiskCategorySeverityProbabilityImpact on Thesis
Substantially all of the University's revenue derives from federal student aid under Title IV of the Higher Education Act, subject to the 90/10 Rule, cohort default rate tests and state authorisation.RegulationHighPossibleThe 10-K states that failing to maintain state authorisation would mean losing the ability to participate in Title IV programmes. That single dependency is why a debt-free business growing enrolment trades at 3.5 times sustainable EBITDA, and no amount of balance-sheet strength offsets it. It is also not a risk that arrives gradually: it arrives as a rule change, a negotiated rulemaking outcome or an enforcement action.
Revenue growth has decelerated from 6.0% in fiscal 2025 to 0.9% across the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and third-quarter revenue was flat at $271.8M against $271.7M.GrowthHighCertainAt 3.5 times sustainable EBITDA the case does not require growth, but it does require the absence of decline. Enrolment rose 0.6% in the quarter and 2.2% across nine months, so volume is still going the right way and price is not. If revenue per student erodes while enrolment is flat, the fixed cost base that holds the margin at 24.9% works against it just as fast.
Adjusted EBITDA, the measure guidance is stated in, adds back all share-based compensation. The third quarter carried $8.5M of it against $0.6M a year earlier, which annualises to roughly $33.8M of ongoing cost.Earnings QualitymediumCertainGuided adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M therefore overstates what an owner keeps by something like $34M. Every scenario on this page is struck on sustainable EBITDA of about $214M instead, which moves the enterprise multiple from 3.1 times to 3.5 times. The nine-month figure of $47.6M is not the run rate; $39.2M of it fell in the first two quarters as an IPO catch-up.
The IPO was entirely secondary. Existing shareholders sold 4,887,500 shares at $32.00 and the company issued nothing and received nothing.OwnershipmediumCertainNo capital was raised for the business, $156.4M went to prior owners, and the shares now trade 11.3% below the price those owners sold at. A registered holder base that bought at $32.00 eight months ago is an overhang on any recovery, and the filing does not disclose remaining lock-up terms on this page's sources.
Accounts receivable rose 63.6% to $96.5M while nine-month revenue was flat, and the filing does not contain the comparison that would explain it.Data IntegritymediumCertainThe 10-Q compares 31 May 2026 with the 31 August 2025 fiscal year end, which is a different point in the academic year, and it publishes no balance sheet for 31 May 2025. Deferred revenue rose 104.4% over the same span, which points the opposite way, and the provision for credit losses fell from $47.7M in fiscal 2025 to $36.4M on the trailing year. No conclusion is drawn here because the filing does not support one.
Average daily volume over the last thirty sessions is about 132,000 shares, roughly $3.7M, and the shares have traded for only 218 sessions.LiquiditymediumCertainNo figure on this page can be called a 52-week range, because a 52-week range does not yet exist. The high and low quoted are since listing on 9 October 2025, and the $47.08 intraday high is a listing-day print far above any close, the highest of which is $38.15. Short interest is 14.1% of the float against that volume, and only eight analysts publish a target.
Institutional and insider ownership percentages are not published on this page.Data IntegrityLowCertainThe company listed in October 2025 and the ownership record is still forming, so a figure taken from a data feed today would be a snapshot of an incomplete register rather than a stable holding pattern. The float is shown as approximately the full share count because the selling shareholders' remaining position is not broken out in the sources used here.

Technical Snapshot

Price $28.38MA50 $27.65MA200 $27.366M -7.5%
21.725.328.932.536.2Dec 15Jan 29Mar 17May 01Jun 15
52-Week Range
$23.52$28.38$47.08
RSI (14)
47
neutral
50-Day MA
$30.38
-6.6%below
200-Day MA
$30.35
-6.5%below
Avg Vol (30d)
132K
+52%vs average
Support Levels
$26.50$23.52$27.30
Resistance Levels
$30.38$32.00$38.15
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.

Ownership & Insider Activity

Institutional Holdersvia Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, cover page and initial public offering note
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
There is one class of common stock and 36,047,376 shares were outstanding on 7 July 2026, so the structure is simple in a way this site does not often see. The listing on 9 October 2025 was entirely secondary: existing shareholders sold 4,250,000 shares at $32.00 and a further 637,500 on 15 October, the company issued nothing, and all $156.4M of proceeds went to the sellers. Before the IPO the company held about 98% of the University's shares, and the rest were converted one for one into 790,714 company shares, leaving the University wholly owned and a $2.2M minority elsewhere in the group. Institutional and insider percentages are deliberately not stated: the register is eight months old and any figure would describe a position still forming rather than a settled one. Short interest is 14.1% of the float against average daily volume of roughly 132,000 shares.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.

Peer Comparison

TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
PXED$1.02B12.3×1.0×5.6×+0.9%56.5%8.2%
PRDO$2.07B12.0×2.4×5.8×+1.8%79.9%20.6%
LOPE$3.84B17.8×3.4×10.1×+6.7%53.3%19.6%
APEI$0.83B18.5×1.3×9.1×+5.5%55.9%6.8%
LINC$0.82B35.2×1.4×16.5×+22.4%59.8%4.0%
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.

Research Notes

2026-08-24Verified against the filed statements for both periods
Why the earnings collapse is not one
Operating income for the nine months to 31 May 2026 fell from $150.4M to $91.4M, a decline of $59.0M or 39.2%. Over the same period share-based compensation rose from $1.9M to $47.6M, an increase of $45.7M, and strategic alternatives, restructuring and other costs rose from $17.9M to $31.7M, an increase of $13.8M. Those two increases total $59.5M, which is 100.8% of the decline. Arithmetically the rest of the business improved slightly. The company reaches the same conclusion in its own release, attributing the fall primarily to share-based compensation resulting from the IPO, and its adjusted figures show it: nine-month adjusted EBITDA of $188.1M against $185.8M, adjusted net income of $132.0M against $131.9M, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.9% against 24.8%.
2026-08-24Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, balance sheet
How enterprise value is struck when there is no debt
The balance sheet reports no borrowings of any kind, which is rare enough on this site to be worth stating twice. Enterprise value here is the market capitalisation of $1,023.0M plus the $2.2M minority less $266.5M of cash and marketable securities, giving $758.7M. Restricted cash of $3.0M is excluded because it is not available to an owner, which is why the figure used here is $266.5M rather than the $269.4M the company quotes. Operating lease liabilities of $65.7M are outside the borrowings figure, which is the basis this page, COLL, PGY, NUTX, OTEX, SIG and NATR all use. It is not yet universal here. The GTM entry adds its $245.2M of operating leases into enterprise value, so a cross-page comparison of enterprise multiples against that name is not on a like basis until it is rebuilt. A senior secured revolving credit facility was entered in November 2025 and no drawing is reported.
2026-08-24Q3 FY2026 results, non-GAAP reconciliation
The part of adjusted EBITDA that is a real cost
Guidance is stated in adjusted EBITDA, which adds back every dollar of share-based compensation. That is defensible for the IPO catch-up and not defensible for the ongoing grant cost, and the two can be separated. The nine months carried $47.6M, of which $8.5M fell in the third quarter, so $39.2M landed in the first two quarters as a listing charge. Annualising the third quarter gives roughly $33.8M as the continuing rate. Guided adjusted EBITDA of $246M to $250M less that leaves sustainable EBITDA near $214M, and every scenario on this page is struck against the lower figure. On the guided number the enterprise is 3.1 times; on the sustainable one it is 3.5 times. Both are stated so a reader can see the difference the choice makes.
2026-08-24Daily price series since listing
There is no 52-week range for this company yet
The shares first traded on 9 October 2025 and have 218 sessions of history, so no figure on this page is a true 52-week statistic. The high and low shown are since listing. The $47.08 high is an intraday print from the first days of trading and sits well above the highest close of $38.15; the lowest close is $26.50 against an intraday low of $23.52. The 50-day and 200-day averages are $30.38 and $30.35, and the 200-day figure is computed over 200 of the 218 available sessions rather than a settled year. Anyone comparing this technical section against another page on this site should read it with that in mind.

Sources

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. valuation questions

Is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) stock undervalued?

Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. trades below: $28.38 today versus a $40.00 estimate, about +41%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.

What is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.'s fair value?

The fair value estimate shown for PXED is $40.00. Its valuation scenarios span bear $27.30, base $40.00, bull $52.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.

What is Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.'s market cap?

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $1.02B, and an enterprise value of $759M.

What is the bull and bear case for PXED?

Valuation scenarios: bull $52.00, base $40.00, bear $27.30. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.