Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $2.25
- Forward P/E
- 7.4×
- Market cap
- $320M
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.7×
CompaniesMNTK
MNTK
Montauk Renewables, Inc.
EnergyRenewable natural gasControlled companyCustomer concentrationNegative free cash flow
Overview
$2.25-1.7%
Market Cap
$320M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
40.4×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
34.7%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
-26.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
yfinance
Conviction
1/5Landfill and dairy RNG producer whose revenue is 86% environmental credits; 40.9% single-customer concentration and negative FCF are live kill-checks.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 50/100
Value2/4
Future1/1
Past3/4
Health1/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Montauk Renewables captures biogas at landfill and dairy sites in the United States, upgrades it to renewable natural gas and renewable electricity, and earns most of its revenue from environmental attributes (D3 RINs, LCFS credits, RECs) rather than commodity gas. It surfaces on cash-flow screens because operating cash flow of 30.4 million USD in the first half of 2026 sits against near-zero net income of 0.2 million USD (10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30). The case does not survive the investing section: trailing twelve-month capital expenditure of 126.8 million USD against operating cash flow of 43.4 million USD leaves free cash flow of roughly negative 83.4 million USD, funded by a 149.6 million USD senior credit facility at 10.25%. Two kill-checks are live. Customer A was 40.9% of second-quarter 2026 revenue, and the company is a Nasdaq controlled company with 52.3% of the stock voted in concert by affiliates of two South Africa-based directors under a Consortium Agreement (FY2025 10-K). Confirmation would require quarterly capex falling well below 22 million USD, positive year-over-year environmental-attribute revenue, no further debt draws, and a broadening of the customer base below 30% for any single buyer.
Bull Case
GrowthSecond-quarter 2026 revenue of 54.0 million USD grew 19.7% year over year and first-half revenue grew 14.5%, per the 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
Cash flowOperating cash flow was 30.4 million USD in the first half of 2026 while GAAP net income was only 0.2 million USD, so reported earnings understate cash generation before capex (10-Q, 2026-06-30).
PricingThe company reported an average realized D3 RIN price of 2.45 in the second quarter of 2026 versus 2.42 a year earlier, with the D3 index near 2.54, supporting credit revenue (10-Q, 2026-06-30).
Bear Case
ConcentrationCustomer A represented 40.9% of total revenue in the second quarter of 2026, up from 20.2% a year earlier, and 34.4% for the first half (10-Q, 2026-06-30).
Cash flowTrailing twelve-month capex of 126.8 million USD exceeded operating cash flow of 43.4 million USD, leaving free cash flow near negative 83.4 million USD and net debt of 133.9 million USD against 15.8 million USD of cash (10-Q, 2026-06-30; FY2025 10-K).
GovernanceThe company is a Nasdaq controlled company: affiliates of directors Copelyn and Govender own about 52.3% and act in concert under a Consortium Agreement, and four directors reside in South Africa where US judgments may be hard to enforce (FY2025 10-K).
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$320M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$462M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$189M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
40.4×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
7.4×
yfinance
P/S (TTM)
1.7×
SEC filings
P/B
1.2×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
11.0×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
34.7%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
0.6%
SEC filings
Net Margin
4.2%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$-83M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
-26.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.6×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
0.6×
SEC filings
Short Interest
3.5%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
19.1%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
70.1%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
142.3M
SEC filings
Float
65.8M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Now $2.25
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNTK | $317M | 44.6× | 1.7× | 12.1× | +20.0% | 35.0% | 4.0% |
| OPAL | $339M | – | 1.0× | 35.1× | +4.0% | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| CLNE | $373M | – | 0.8× | 40.6× | +4.0% | 28.0% | -21.0% |
| AMTX | $139M | – | 0.6× | – | +20.0% | 10.0% | -26.0% |
| GEVO | $376M | – | 2.1× | – | +7.0% | 45.0% | -120.0% |
| WM | $85.12B | 30.2× | 3.3× | 13.9× | +4.0% | 41.0% | 11.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 205.6 | 174.9 | 175.7 | 176.4 |
| Cost of Revenue | 101.4 | 94.6 | 98.2 | 110.6 |
| Gross Profit | 104.1 | 80.3 | 77.6 | 65.8 |
| Operating Income | 49.3 | 24.7 | 17.8 | 4.1 |
| EBITDA | 65.7 | 45.3 | 41.0 | 32.3 |
| Net Income | 35.2 | 14.9 | 9.7 | 1.7 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 105.2 | 73.8 | 45.6 | 23.8 |
| Total Assets | 332.3 | 350.2 | 349.0 | 435.5 |
| Total Debt | 76.2 | 68.1 | 62.9 | 137.9 |
| Total Liabilities | 105.2 | 100.0 | 91.6 | 172.3 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 227.1 | 250.2 | 257.4 | 263.1 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 141.6 | 142.0 | 142.7 | 143.2 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.1 | 41.1 | 43.8 | 30.3 |
| Capital Expenditure | (22.3) | (63.1) | (62.3) | (116.5) |
| Free Cash Flow | 58.8 | (22.0) | (18.5) | (86.2) |
| Investing Cash Flow | (20.8) | (63.1) | (62.2) | (120.5) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (8.3) | (9.3) | (9.8) | 68.3 |
Figures normalized from Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-11. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-03-11 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 2026 report and 10-Q, expected early November based on the 2025-11-05 cadence
Earningshigh relevance
Third-quarter 2026 results
Key items are whether quarterly capex falls below roughly 22 million USD, whether environmental-attribute revenue grows year over year, and whether Customer A concentration recedes. Date is an estimate from prior-year filing timing.
FY2026 10-K, expected mid-March 2027
Earnings
Full-year 2026 10-K and updated customer concentration disclosure
The annual filing will restate the full-year share of revenue from each customer above 10% and the updated ownership of the Consortium Agreement parties.
Any quarter through year-end 2026
Regulatoryhigh relevance
D3 RIN price and EPA Renewable Fuel Standard volumes
Environmental attributes were 86% of second-quarter 2026 revenue; the senior credit facility includes an event of default tied to an average monthly D3 RIN price below 1.00 combined with trailing EBITDA below 10 million USD (10-Q, 2026-06-30).
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss or repricing of Customer A, which was 40.9% of second-quarter 2026 revenue | Operational | High | Medium | Non-renewal would remove a large share of quarterly revenue against an operating result already near breakeven. |
| D3 RIN and LCFS credit price decline | Regulatory | High | Medium | Credits were 86% of second-quarter 2026 revenue; a sustained drop would push trailing EBITDA toward the 10 million USD covenant floor on a 10.25% facility. |
| Negative free cash flow funded by debt | Financial | High | High | Trailing capex of 126.8 million USD versus operating cash flow of 43.4 million USD, with 149.6 million USD of debt and 15.8 million USD of cash, leaves little cushion if the build does not deliver. |
| Controlled company with 52.3% voted in concert by affiliates of two directors | Governance | Medium | High | Public stockholders cannot influence board composition; the company may opt out of Nasdaq independence standards, and several directors are outside US jurisdiction. |
| Thin trading liquidity | Liquidity | Medium | High | Median daily dollar volume was about 0.23 million USD over the trailing year per the research file, so prices can gap on modest volume. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
–$2.25–
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
Nasdaq controlled company. Affiliates of directors John A. Copelyn and Theventheran G. Govender, parties to a Consortium Agreement to vote in concert, beneficially controlled about 52.3% of the common stock as of 2026-02-28 (FY2025 10-K). The public company was formed from Montauk Holdings USA in the 2021 reorganization and IPO, and the stock has a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange under MKR; directors Copelyn, Govender, Ahmed and Shaik reside in South Africa. No Form 4 filings of any kind between 2026-06-12 and 2026-09-10; the last open-market purchase was Copelyn, 17,506 shares at 1.45 on 2026-05-11. No buyback program; FY2025 10-K Item 5 reports no issuer repurchases.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copelyn John A | Director | Buy | 17.5K | $1.45 | 2026-05-11 | $25.4K |
| Hill Scott E | VP of Business Development | Sell | 101.8K | $12.02 | 2022-11-28 | $1.22M |
| Hill Scott E | VP of Business Development | Sell | 2.4K | $12.68 | 2022-11-28 | $29.8K |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNTK | $317M | 44.6× | 1.7× | 12.1× | +20.0% | 35.0% | 4.0% |
| OPAL | $339M | – | 1.0× | 35.1× | +4.0% | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| CLNE | $373M | – | 0.8× | 40.6× | +4.0% | 28.0% | -21.0% |
| AMTX | $139M | – | 0.6× | – | +20.0% | 10.0% | -26.0% |
| GEVO | $376M | – | 2.1× | – | +7.0% | 45.0% | -120.0% |
| WM | $85.12B | 30.2× | 3.3× | 13.9× | +4.0% | 41.0% | 11.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 10-Q
Second-quarter 2026 10-Q: concentration and free cash flow
Revenue was 54.0 million USD for the quarter, of which 46.6 million USD came from natural-gas and electric environmental attributes. Customer A was 40.9% of quarterly revenue and 34.4% of first-half revenue, with four customers above 10% for the half. Trailing capex of 126.8 million USD against operating cash flow of 43.4 million USD leaves free cash flow near negative 83.4 million USD.
2026-09-17SEC 10-K
FY2025 10-K: controlled company and debt terms
The company states it is a controlled company under Nasdaq rules, with about 52.3% controlled by affiliates of two directors acting under a Consortium Agreement. The New Senior Credit Facility carries 10.25% interest with a final payment of 131.75 million USD due March 2031 and an event of default tied to D3 RIN prices below 1.00 combined with trailing EBITDA below 10 million USD.
2026-09-17Research
Screen signal was an artifact
The company surfaced on an operating-cash-flow versus net-income screen. Reading the investing section reverses the signal: this is a debt-funded capacity build, not a hidden cash generator. Both the concentration and negative free cash flow items are live, so conviction is set to the minimum.
Sources
Montauk Renewables, Inc. valuation questions
What is Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s forward P/E ratio?
Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) trades at a forward P/E of 7.4×, and 1.7× trailing sales.
What is Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s market cap?
Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $320M, and an enterprise value of $462M.