SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $3.10
- Forward P/E
- 2.9×
- Market cap
- $223M
- P/S (TTM)
- 4.2×
CompaniesSIGA
SIGA
SIGA Technologies, Inc.
Healthcarebiodefensegovernment procurementnet cashsingle product
Overview
$3.10+4.0%
Market Cap
$223M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
54.4%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
-9.2%
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
yahoo chart 2026-09-17 close $3
Conviction
2/5Debt-free smallpox antiviral maker with cash near half its market value, but its only large customer has no open procurement order.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 25/100
Value0/2
Futuren/a
Past1/4
Health3/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
SIGA Technologies supplies TPOXX (tecovirimat), the FDA-approved oral and IV smallpox antiviral, mainly to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile under the 19C BARDA contract, plus a growing set of international government customers. It screens as deep value because the balance sheet is clean: cash and equivalents of $117.6 million at June 30, 2026 with no debt, stockholders' equity of $165.3 million, and a business that earned $23.3 million of net income on $94.6 million of revenue in FY2025 (10-K filed 2026-03-10). At the 2026-09-17 close of $3.10 the market value is roughly $223 million, so cash covers about half of it. The strongest counter-evidence is revenue visibility: the Q2 2026 IV TPOXX deliveries completed the last procurement order under the 19C contract, only about $5.6 million of unexercised options remain, and management forecasts a loss for full-year 2026 based on orders received to date (10-Q filed 2026-08-06). A special $0.60 dividend paid in April 2026 also drew down cash. Confirmation would be a new U.S. government procurement contract or option exercise of meaningful size, or international orders that repeat at the Q2 2026 level ($13.0 million). Refutation would be another year without a U.S. order while operating costs consume cash.
Bull Case
Balance sheetCash and equivalents were $117.6 million with zero debt at June 30, 2026, and management states liquidity is sufficient for at least twelve months (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
DiversificationQ2 2026 included $13.0 million of oral TPOXX delivered to two international customers (Asia-Pacific $12.7 million, EMEA $0.3 million), plus a March 2026 Hikma license for the MENA region (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
Earnings powerFY2025 delivered $94.6 million of revenue, $23.7 million of operating income and $43.5 million of operating cash flow even in a low-delivery year (10-K filed 2026-03-10).
Bear Case
Customer concentrationThe 10-K states the business is substantially dependent on the U.S. Government maintaining its TPOXX stockpile; U.S. revenue was $34.3 million of $47.2 million in the first half of 2026 and 100 percent of Q2 2025 revenue.
Order bookQ2 2026 deliveries completed the last procurement order under the 19C BARDA contract; all $450.2 million of oral and $76.8 million of IV exercised options have been delivered, leaving about $5.6 million unexercised (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
RegulatoryOn May 29, 2026 the European Commission adopted a CHMP opinion that Tecovirimat-SIGA no longer be used for mpox after the PALM007 and STOMP trials, and the UK MHRA asked for a matching label change (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$223M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$106M
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$54M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Forward P/E
2.9×
yahoo chart 2026-09-17 close $3
P/S (TTM)
4.2×
SEC filings
P/B
1.4×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
–
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
54.4%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
-20.8%
SEC filings
Net Margin
-5.2%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$-20M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
-9.2%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
21.7×
SEC filings
Short Interest
7.6%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
50.4%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
42.7%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
71.8M
SEC filings
Float
41.1M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Now $3.10
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGA | $225M | – | 4.2× | – | -50.0% | 16.0% | -5.0% |
| EBS | $352M | – | 0.5× | 3.4× | +66.0% | 50.0% | -23.0% |
| BVNRY | $2.33B | 10.3× | 0.4× | 0.1× | +23.0% | 50.0% | 24.0% |
| NVAX | $1.61B | – | 3.9× | – | -76.0% | -3.0% | -60.0% |
| TNXP | $206M | – | 7.1× | – | +578.0% | 84.0% | 0.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 110.8 | 139.9 | 138.7 | 94.6 |
| Cost of Revenue | 10.4 | 17.8 | 31.3 | 29.7 |
| Gross Profit | 100.3 | 122.1 | 107.4 | 64.9 |
| Operating Income | 42.7 | 83.6 | 70.0 | 23.7 |
| EBITDA | 43.2 | 84.2 | 70.5 | 24.3 |
| Net Income | 33.9 | 68.1 | 59.2 | 23.3 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.32 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 98.8 | 150.1 | 155.4 | 155.0 |
| Total Assets | 195.0 | 254.4 | 244.3 | 219.5 |
| Total Debt | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Total Liabilities | 24.9 | 57.5 | 28.5 | 20.6 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 170.2 | 196.9 | 215.8 | 198.8 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 72.7 | 71.1 | 71.4 | 71.6 |
| Line Item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | – | 41.6 | 94.8 | 48.8 | 43.5 |
| Capital Expenditure | (0.1) | – | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.4) |
| Free Cash Flow | – | 41.6 | 94.8 | 48.7 | 43.1 |
| Investing Cash Flow | – | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.4) |
| Financing Cash Flow | – | (46.0) | (43.4) | (43.5) | (43.6) |
Figures normalized from SIGA Technologies Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-10. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-03-10 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 2026 results, early November (estimate)
Earnings
Q3 2026 report and order update
Watch for any new U.S. procurement award, international deliveries, and the cash balance versus $117.6 million at June 30, 2026. Q2 2026 was reported 2026-08-06 (8-K).
Undated; any time before the 19C option period ends
Corporatehigh relevance
New U.S. Government TPOXX procurement contract or option exercise
The 19C contract options run up to ten years from September 10, 2018; BARDA decides at its sole discretion when or whether to exercise the remaining approximately $5.6 million. A successor contract is the single largest swing factor named in the 10-K risk factors.
First half of 2027 (company target)
Regulatory
Supplemental NDA for smallpox post-exposure prophylaxis
The company has completed an immunogenicity trial and an expanded safety trial and targets an sNDA submission in the first half of 2027, pending sample analyses (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
Any quarter; watch Asia-Pacific and MENA
Product
Repeat international orders and first Hikma MENA shipments
International sales were $13.0 million in Q2 2026 versus $5.8 million in the first half of 2025; the Meridian promotion agreement expired May 31, 2026 and SIGA now handles international sales directly (10-Q filed 2026-08-06).
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No successor U.S. Government procurement contract, or a materially smaller one | Operational | High | Medium | The 10-K names this as the central risk; without U.S. orders TTM revenue stays near the $53.7 million run rate and the company forecasts a full-year 2026 loss, with possible inventory write-offs on $41.1 million of inventory. |
| Single-customer revenue concentration | Financial | High | High | U.S. Government receivables were 75 percent of receivables at December 31, 2025; revenue timing is lumpy and set by government budget and stockpile decisions. |
| Label narrowing after the mpox trial results | Regulatory | Medium | High | The EU and UK mpox restriction is already in force (May 2026); the annual EMA exceptional-circumstances reassessment could further change the marketing authorization. |
| Controlling shareholder governance | Governance | Medium | Medium | MacAndrews & Forbes reported beneficial ownership of 33.68 percent at April 17, 2026 (DEF 14A) and is the landlord under the ten-year New York headquarters lease signed May 26, 2017 (10-Q); a one-third holder can shape capital decisions such as the $0.60 special dividend of March 2026. |
| Supply chain and tariff exposure on IV TPOXX | Operational | Low | Medium | The 10-Q notes U.S.-Europe tariff activity may materially raise IV TPOXX raw material costs; oral TPOXX has a U.S. domestic supply chain through Grace, Microsize, Catalent and PCI. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
–$3.10–
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
MacAndrews & Forbes Incorporated reported beneficial ownership of 24,156,358 shares, 33.68 percent, and John Latane Lewis IV 5,271,365 shares, 7.35 percent, as of April 17, 2026; all eleven executive officers and directors together reported 2.73 percent (DEF 14A filed 2026-04-28). The seven Form 4 filings in the 90 days to 2026-09-10 are all dated 2026-06-10 and record annual director equity awards of 24,116 shares each with 7,235 shares withheld for taxes at $4.39; no open-market purchases or sales were filed in that window. Shares outstanding were 71,849,716 at July 24, 2026 (10-Q cover), up 0.2 percent year over year.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGA | $225M | – | 4.2× | – | -50.0% | 16.0% | -5.0% |
| EBS | $352M | – | 0.5× | 3.4× | +66.0% | 50.0% | -23.0% |
| BVNRY | $2.33B | 10.3× | 0.4× | 0.1× | +23.0% | 50.0% | 24.0% |
| NVAX | $1.61B | – | 3.9× | – | -76.0% | -3.0% | -60.0% |
| TNXP | $206M | – | 7.1× | – | +578.0% | 84.0% | 0.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 10-Q
Q2 2026: last 19C order delivered, cash down after special dividend
Q2 2026 revenue was $41.0 million ($37.9 million product) versus $81.1 million a year earlier, with net income of $12.5 million or $0.17 per diluted share. Deliveries of about $24 million of IV TPOXX completed the last procurement order under the 19C BARDA contract. Cash fell to $117.6 million from $155.0 million at December 31, 2025, mainly the $43.3 million special dividend paid April 23, 2026.
2026-09-17SEC 8-K
Company frames Q2 as proof of customer diversification
The August 6, 2026 release reports approximately $37 million of TPOXX delivered to three customers: $24 million of IV TPOXX to the U.S. stockpile and $13 million of oral TPOXX to two international customers. The forward-looking risks list the failure to secure new U.S. Government contracts first.
2026-09-17Research
No filings or dated news since September 1, 2026
EDGAR shows no filings after the August 6, 2026 10-Q and 8-K. The shares closed at $3.10 on 2026-09-17, giving a market value near $223 million against $117.6 million of cash; enterprise value is roughly $105 million, about 2x the trailing twelve-month revenue of $53.7 million.
Sources
SIGA Technologies, Inc. valuation questions
What is SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s forward P/E ratio?
SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) trades at a forward P/E of 2.9×, and 4.2× trailing sales.
What is SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s market cap?
SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $223M, and an enterprise value of $106M.