Similarweb (SMWB) valuation at a glance
Similarweb (SMWB) trades above the fair value estimate shown here. At $4.38 versus a $4.25 estimate, that is a 3% downside.
- Price
- $4.38
- Fair value estimate
- $4.25
- Upside
- -3%
- Forward P/E
- 21.9×
- Market cap
- $360M
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.3×
CompaniesSMWB
Overview
SMWB
Similarweb
TechnologySaaSWeb AnalyticsWatchlist
$4.38+1.9%
Market Cap
$360M
company IR
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
13.0%
+13%SEC filing
Gross Margin
79.4%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
5.5%
calculated
Upside to FV
-3.0%
vs fair value
Conviction
3/5Digital-intelligence SaaS under 40-agent forensic review — fair but not yet cheap; a research-stage watchlist name.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-05-28
Quality Snowflake
Overall 53/100
Value2/3
Future1/2
Past2/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Similarweb sells web and app traffic intelligence as a subscription. A 40-agent forensic review characterized it as a fair-but-not-cheap SaaS turnaround: ~78% gross margins and a defensible data panel, but still operating at a loss with an unproven path to GAAP profitability. The research conclusion is that the valuation is not yet compelling at current levels.
Bull Case
Margins~78% gross margin; recurring subscription revenue.
Data MoatProprietary traffic panel is hard to replicate at scale.
Bear Case
ProfitabilityStill operating at a loss; path to GAAP profit unproven.
ValuationNot yet cheap enough relative to the operating-loss profile.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$360M
company IR
Enterprise Value
$320M
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$280M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Forward P/E
21.9×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.3×
via financials
P/B
3.0×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
–
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
13.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
79.4%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
-5.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
-8.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$13M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
5.5%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.3×
SEC filing
Short Interest
0.8%
exchange
Institutional Own.
60.5%
13F
Insider Own.
17.2%
proxy
Shares Out.
87.6M
SEC filing
Float
60.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.00
Base$4.25
Bull$5.00
Now $4.38
Bear Case
$3.00
Analyst low 12-month target (6 analysts)
Base Case
$4.25
Analyst mean 12-month target (6 analysts)
Bull Case
$5.00
Analyst high 12-month target (6 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$25M
FCF Yield
7.0%
Balance Sheet
$26M net cash
Rev CAGR
14%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 2.5× | – |
| FY23 | – | 1.9× | – |
| FY24 | – | 4.7× | – |
| FY25 | – | 2.3× | – |
| TTM · | – | 1.6× | – |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMWB | $460M | – | 1.6× | – | +10.0% | 80.0% | -10.0% |
| SEMR | $1.81B | – | 4.1× | – | +15.0% | 81.0% | -4.0% |
| AMPL | $907M | – | 2.5× | – | +17.0% | 74.0% | -25.0% |
| BRZE | $2.45B | – | 3.1× | – | +30.0% | 66.0% | -16.0% |
| GTLB | $4.78B | – | 4.8× | – | +23.0% | 87.0% | -2.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | Q1 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $67.1M | $72.8M | $73.9M |
| Gross Profit | $53.1M | $57.8M | $58.7M |
| Gross Margin | 79.1% | 79.4% | 79.4% |
| Operating Income | -$9.3M | -$4.7M | -$4.4M |
| Net Income | -$9.3M | -$7.5M | -$6.4M |
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | $65.3M | — |
| Total Debt | $39.4M | 100% lease obligations |
| Net Cash | $25.9M | Thin vs ~$33M annual loss |
| Deferred Revenue | $117.5M | ~1.6 quarters prepaid (backlog) |
| Tangible Book Value | -$35.0M | NEGATIVE — no asset floor |
| Retained Earnings | -$403.9M | — |
True FCF (OCF − capex − SBC) ≈ −$8.2M in FY25; company funding itself via shareholder dilution (share count 83.1M→87.6M, +5.4% in 15 months).
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $218.0M | $249.9M | $282.6M |
| Operating Income | -$28.8M | -$9.7M | -$23.6M |
| Net Income | -$29.4M | -$11.5M | -$32.9M |
| Stock-Based Comp | $18.1M | $17.6M | $21.2M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -$3.0M | $30.2M | $14.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$5.4M | $27.4M | $13.0M |
Quarterly income statement and FY23–FY25 annuals from company filings (yfinance). Gross margin stable ~79–80%; operating losses narrowed through FY24 then widened in FY25. SBC ($21.2M) exceeds operating cash flow ($14.6M). Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-02 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings
Watch net revenue retention and FCF.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unproven path to profitability | Execution | Medium | Medium | Operating losses widened in FY25; quality is fine but valuation is not yet compelling. |
| SBC exceeds operating cash flow | Execution | Medium | High | $21.2M SBC vs $14.6M OCF; true FCF negative, funded by dilution (~4.3% annualized). |
| Negative tangible book value | Market/Macro | Low | High | -$35.0M tangible book; no asset floor under the equity. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$3.00$4.38$8.50
RSI (14)
44
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.60
-4.8%below
200-Day MA
$5.50
-20.4%below
Avg Vol (30d)
0.9M
-10%vs average
Support Levels
$4.00$3.00
Resistance Levels
$5.00$6.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naspers Ltd. | 11,173,265 | 12.8 | flat | 2026-Q1 |
| Viola Ventures | 10,810,778 | 12.3 | flat | 2026-Q1 |
| Menora Mivtachim | 4,015,494 | 4.6 | flat | 2026-Q1 |
| ION Crossover Partners | 3,030,826 | 3.5 | flat | 2026-Q1 |
| Wellington Management | 2,966,757 | 3.4 | flat | 2026-Q1 |
Insider Activity
Coordinated cluster buy: 4 open-market purchases over 4 days by the CEO plus 3 board/exec members, all below market, totalling ~$813K (SEC Form 4 confirmed).
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilam Barak | Insider | Buy | 50,000 | $3.86 | 2026-05-21 | $193K |
| Beit-On Harel | Director | Buy | 75,000 | $3.89 | 2026-05-20 | $292K |
| Offer Or | CEO | Buy | 56,105 | $3.20–3.58 | 2026-05-19 | ~$190K |
| Rapaport Dagim Tamar | Insider | Buy | 40,000 | $3.22 | 2026-05-18 | $129K |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMWB | $460M | – | 1.6× | – | +10.0% | 80.0% | -10.0% |
| SEMR | $1.81B | – | 4.1× | – | +15.0% | 81.0% | -4.0% |
| AMPL | $907M | – | 2.5× | – | +17.0% | 74.0% | -25.0% |
| BRZE | $2.45B | – | 3.1× | – | +30.0% | 66.0% | -16.0% |
| GTLB | $4.78B | – | 4.8× | – | +23.0% | 87.0% | -2.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-05-28Internal
40-agent forensic complete
Quality is fine but the valuation is not compelling at current levels. Classified as a research-stage watchlist name pending a cheaper entry or improving profitability.
Similarweb valuation questions
Is Similarweb (SMWB) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Similarweb trades above: $4.38 today versus a $4.25 estimate, about -3%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Similarweb's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for SMWB is $4.25. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.00, base $4.25, bull $5.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Similarweb's forward P/E ratio?
Similarweb (SMWB) trades at a forward P/E of 21.9×, and 1.3× trailing sales.
What is Similarweb's market cap?
Similarweb (SMWB) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $360M, and an enterprise value of $320M.
What is the bull and bear case for SMWB?
Valuation scenarios: bull $5.00, base $4.25, bear $3.00. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.