Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $3.54
- Forward P/E
- 3.7×
- Market cap
- $538M
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.5×
CompaniesVRRM
VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation
Industrialstolling servicesphoto enforcementcustomer concentrationlevered services
Overview
$3.540%
Market Cap
$538M
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
12.2×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
90.7%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
18.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
yahoo chart 2026-09-17 (close 2026-09-16 $3
Conviction
2/5Repriced rental-car contracts and a 2.4x-levered balance sheet against a stock down about 85% from its high; the first ex-repricing quarter decides it.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
Value4/4
Future1/1
Past4/4
Health2/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Verra Mobility processes tolls and violations for rental-car and fleet customers (Commercial Services), runs photo-enforcement camera programs for cities including NYCDOT (Government Solutions), and provides parking software (Parking Solutions). Q2 2026 revenue was $263.6 million, up 12% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $110.7 million, but GAAP net loss was $(48.2) million after a $64.0 million goodwill and $40.4 million intangible impairment in Parking (10-Q filed 2026-08-05). It screens as deep value because the shares fell roughly 70% on 2026-05-27 after Avis Budget served a termination notice (8-K 2026-05-26); Avis then withdrew the notice and signed a seven-year extension, and Hertz signed a five-year extension effective 2026-08-01, both on terms the company describes as materially less favorable with fleet-volume modulation rights. Revised FY2026 guidance (2026-08-05) is revenue $945-965 million, adjusted EBITDA $360-370 million and free cash flow $105-115 million against net debt of $993.2 million (2.4x). The strongest counter-evidence: the repricing is unquantified, the CEO is interim, and a securities class action is pending. Confirmation would be Q3 and Q4 2026 Commercial Services segment profit holding near the Q2 level of $77.2 million, FY2027 guidance above the revised FY2026 range, and continued debt reduction.
Bull Case
RetentionBoth repriced customers stayed: Avis withdrew its termination notice for a seven-year extension and Hertz signed a five-year extension effective 2026-08-01 (10-Q filed 2026-08-05, Note 15).
Cash generationRevised FY2026 guidance of 2026-08-05 still calls for adjusted EBITDA of $360-370 million and free cash flow of $105-115 million, and the company was compliant with all debt covenants at 2026-06-30.
Government growthGovernment Solutions revenue grew 20% to $128.5 million in Q2 2026, driven by a $12.0 million increase in New York City revenue from new camera installations (8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-05).
Bear Case
RepricingTwo of the three significant Commercial Services customers renewed on terms the 10-Q calls materially less favorable, with fleet-volume modulation rights, and the third renewal is due within twelve months (10-Q filed 2026-08-05).
LeverageTotal debt, net was $1,035 million against $49.6 million of cash at 2026-06-30, net leverage 2.4x, with substantially all assets pledged as collateral (8-K exhibit 99.1 and 10-Q, 2026-08-05).
GovernanceCEO David Roberts departed on 2026-06-01 with an interim successor and an external search underway, and a putative securities class action (Otucu v. Verra Mobility) was filed 2026-06-04 (10-Q filed 2026-08-05).
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$538M
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$1.58B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$1.01B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
12.2×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
3.7×
yahoo chart 2026-09-17 (close 2026-09-16 $3
P/S (TTM)
0.5×
SEC filings
P/B
2.4×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
5.7×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
90.7%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
13.6%
SEC filings
Net Margin
4.4%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$97M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
18.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
4.9×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
2.1×
SEC filings
Short Interest
10.0%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
–
SEC filings
Insider Own.
1.1%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
152.0M
SEC filings
Float
150.3M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Now $3.54
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRRM | $533M | 13.0× | 0.5× | 4.4× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 4.0% |
| CAR | $4.14B | – | 0.4× | 21.4× | -1.0% | 27.0% | -5.0% |
| HTZ | $690M | – | 0.1× | 56.9× | +10.0% | 16.0% | -3.0% |
| ITRN | $1.03B | 16.2× | 2.6× | 8.8× | +21.0% | 50.0% | 16.0% |
| FLYW | $2.15B | 65.5× | 3.0× | 29.5× | +27.0% | 60.0% | 5.0% |
| CPRT | $27.88B | 19.4× | 6.0× | 12.9× | +2.0% | 49.0% | 32.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 741.6 | 817.3 | 879.2 | 979.1 |
| Cost of Revenue | 47.3 | 43.5 | 46.0 | 75.8 |
| Gross Profit | 694.3 | 773.8 | 833.2 | 903.2 |
| Operating Income | 164.7 | 188.8 | 233.1 | 238.4 |
| EBITDA | 336.7 | 286.9 | 262.1 | 375.9 |
| Net Income | 92.5 | 57.0 | 31.4 | 136.6 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.85 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 105.2 | 136.3 | 77.6 | 65.3 |
| Total Assets | 1,756 | 1,790 | 1,614 | 1,646 |
| Total Debt | 1,252 | 1,074 | 1,067 | 1,066 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,525 | 1,369 | 1,349 | 1,353 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 231.1 | 421.5 | 265.1 | 293.0 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 149.0 | 166.6 | 159.6 | 153.6 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 218.3 | 206.1 | 223.6 | 255.8 |
| Capital Expenditure | (48.2) | (57.5) | (70.9) | (119.1) |
| Free Cash Flow | 170.2 | 148.6 | 152.8 | 136.7 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (48.6) | (58.3) | (69.7) | (118.8) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (164.9) | (117.8) | (211.4) | (151.0) |
Figures normalized from Verra Mobility Corporation's SEC 10-K filed 2026-02-24. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-02-24 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 2026 results, first quarter with the repriced Avis and Hertz contracts in the run-rate
Earningshigh relevance
Q3 2026 earnings (date not yet announced; Q3 2025 was reported 2025-10-29)
Watch Commercial Services segment profit versus the Q2 2026 level of $77.2 million and any FY2027 framing; the revised FY2026 guide is revenue $945-965 million and adjusted EBITDA $360-370 million (8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-05).
Permanent CEO appointment
Governance
Permanent CEO named
The Board appointed Jon Keyser interim CEO on 2026-06-01 and retained an executive search firm; a permanent appointment would end the interim period (10-Q filed 2026-08-05).
Third significant Commercial Services customer renewal
Corporatehigh relevance
Third rental-car contract renewal discussions
The 10-Q states the company expects to engage in renewal discussions with the third significant Commercial Services customer within the next twelve months; the first two renewals were on materially less favorable terms.
Cash flow and debt reduction
Earnings
FY2026 free cash flow delivery
Guidance is free cash flow of $105-115 million with a working-capital use of about $30 million tied to the RAC renewals and New York City installations (8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-05).
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repriced Commercial Services contracts reduce segment profit more than the market has priced | Operational | High | High | The 2026-05-26 8-K sized the Avis contract at over 10% of revenue with an annualized segment-profit effect of $120-125 million on outright loss; the retained contracts are materially less favorable, and the magnitude is undisclosed. |
| Customer concentration | Operational | High | High | Three Commercial Services customers each exceeded 10% of Q2 2026 revenue (11.0%, 12.8%, 10.5%) and NYCDOT was 21.8% of Q2 revenue and 28.5% of net receivables (10-Q filed 2026-08-05). |
| Leverage and refinancing | Financial | Medium | Medium | $1,035 million of debt including $350.0 million of Senior Notes due 2029-04-15 and a term loan with excess-cash-flow sweeps above a 3.20x first-lien net leverage ratio; lower EBITDA raises the ratio (10-Q filed 2026-08-05). |
| Securities litigation and interim leadership | Governance | Medium | Medium | Putative class action Otucu v. Verra Mobility covers purchasers between 2026-02-24 and 2026-05-26; the CEO role is interim and the company is reorganizing segments (10-Q filed 2026-08-05). |
| Political acceptance of photo enforcement and NYCDOT payment timing | Regulatory | Medium | Medium | Government Solutions depends on legislation authorizing camera programs; NYCDOT had $33.1 million of unbilled revenue at 2026-06-30 and its pricing changed under the new contract (10-Q filed 2026-08-05). |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
–$3.54–
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
No controlling holder. Directors and officers as a group reported 1,922,361 shares, about 1.27%, in the DEF 14A filed 2026-04-06, of which former CEO David Roberts (departed 2026-06-01) reported 1,281,797; interim CEO Jon Keyser reported 19,639. Largest institutional holders per the proxy were BlackRock 14.96%, Vanguard about 11.35% and T. Rowe Price 6.33%. Form 4 activity from June to August 2026 consisted of RSU grants and tax-withholding share surrenders at about $4.90 for the CCO and CAO, with no open-market purchases or sales by insiders recorded after the May 2026 decline (research file A2, citing the EDGAR Form 4 index and the 2026-04-06 proxy).
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRRM | $533M | 13.0× | 0.5× | 4.4× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 4.0% |
| CAR | $4.14B | – | 0.4× | 21.4× | -1.0% | 27.0% | -5.0% |
| HTZ | $690M | – | 0.1× | 56.9× | +10.0% | 16.0% | -3.0% |
| ITRN | $1.03B | 16.2× | 2.6× | 8.8× | +21.0% | 50.0% | 16.0% |
| FLYW | $2.15B | 65.5× | 3.0× | 29.5× | +27.0% | 60.0% | 5.0% |
| CPRT | $27.88B | 19.4× | 6.0× | 12.9× | +2.0% | 49.0% | 32.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 8-K
Avis termination notice was withdrawn; earlier event notes are superseded
The 2026-05-26 8-K (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682745/000119312526239351/d123116d8k.htm) reported a termination notice from Avis Budget effective September 2026, with Avis over 10% of revenue and an expected annualized hit of $135-145 million of revenue and $120-125 million of segment profit. The 2026-07-29 8-K exhibit 99.1 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682745/000119312526321686/d146498dex991.htm) reported a framework agreement on a new seven-year contract, and the 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 states the customer withdrew the notice and entered the extension. The research event logs of 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17 that describe the termination as taking effect in September 2026 are therefore out of date; the revenue effect is a repricing, not a loss of the customer.
2026-09-17SEC 10-Q
Q2 2026: growth with impairments and a second guidance cut
Q2 2026 revenue was $263.6 million (up 12%), adjusted EBITDA $110.7 million, GAAP net loss $(48.2) million after $104.4 million of Parking impairments, and cash from operations $56.4 million (10-Q and 8-K exhibit 99.1 filed 2026-08-05). FY2026 guidance was cut to revenue $945-965 million, adjusted EBITDA $360-370 million, adjusted EPS $1.11-1.17 and free cash flow $105-115 million, from $985-995 million, $380-385 million, $1.19-1.25 and $140-150 million on 2026-05-26. Net debt was $993.2 million (2.4x) and $50.2 million of shares were repurchased in H1 2026.
2026-09-17Research
No new filings since the 10-Q; price drift without a dated cause
EDGAR submissions show no company filing after the 2026-08-14 Schedule 13G forms (https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001682745.json). The research event logs found no identified cause for the September declines; the close on 2026-09-16 was $3.54 versus $3.73 on 2026-09-09 (Yahoo chart).
Sources
Verra Mobility Corporation valuation questions
What is Verra Mobility Corporation's forward P/E ratio?
Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) trades at a forward P/E of 3.7×, and 0.5× trailing sales.
What is Verra Mobility Corporation's market cap?
Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $538M, and an enterprise value of $1.58B.