SpaceX (SPCX) valuation at a glance
SpaceX (SPCX) trades above the fair value estimate shown here. At $192.50 versus a $164.00 estimate, that is a 15% downside.
- Price
- $192.50
- Fair value estimate
- $164.00
- Upside
- -15%
- Market cap
- $2.52T
- P/S (TTM)
- 130.6×
CompaniesSPCX
Overview
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)
IndustrialsMega-cap IPOStarlinkFloat scarcityLoss-making
$192.50+19.6%
Market Cap
$2.52T
SEC 424B4 (IPO prospectus)
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
15.4%
+15.4%SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.8%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
-0.6%
calculated
Upside to FV
-14.8%
vs fair value
Conviction
1/5A $2.52T fully-diluted IPO trading near 130.6x sales and about 95% of Amazon's market cap on 2.6% of its revenue, held up by a reported ~4-5% tradeable float.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-16
Quality Snowflake
Overall 35/100
Value0/3
Future2/2
Past1/4
Health2/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
SPCX trades at $192.50 for a fully-diluted market cap near $2.52T, about 95% of Amazon's value on 2.6% of Amazon's revenue, while posting a $9.36B net loss and burning $14.1B of free cash flow. The price-to-sales multiple near 130.6x, against Amazon's 3.6x, reflects scarcity more than fundamentals: per the IPO prospectus the pre-IPO holders sit under a 180-day lock-up that expires in early December 2026, leaving only a small tradeable float (reported ~4-5%). The open question is whether Starlink, the Falcon and Starship launch business, and the new AI segment grow into the valuation, or whether the premium fades once the lock-up expires. It is a structural, speculative situation, not a deep-value buy.
Bull Case
Launch and Starlink scaleRevenue of $19.3B growing 15.4% at a 48.8% gross margin points to a leading position in launch and low-earth-orbit broadband, on proven reusable Falcon hardware and the Starlink network.
AI optionalityPer the company's own business description, an AI segment spanning the Grok model, the X platform and AI compute adds optionality beyond launch and connectivity, though it is early relative to the revenue base.
Float scarcityWith pre-IPO holders under a 180-day lock-up into early December 2026, only a small fraction (reported ~4-5%) trades freely, which can concentrate index and momentum demand into limited supply.
Gross-margin engineA 48.8% gross margin shows the core services are structurally profitable before the heavy reinvestment that drives the current operating loss.
Bear Case
Extreme multipleAt roughly 130.6x sales versus Amazon at 3.6x, the valuation embeds near-flawless execution, leaving little support if growth wobbles or sentiment shifts.
Losses and cash burnA -48.5% net margin, a $9.36B net loss and $14.1B of negative free cash flow mean the company consumes cash heavily despite $23.7B on hand.
Analysts below priceThe mean analyst target of $164 sits about 15% below the $192.50 price even with buy ratings, implying consensus sees the price as stretched.
Lock-up overhangPer the prospectus, pre-IPO holders are under a 180-day lock-up expiring in early December 2026; a thin tradeable float meeting that released supply is a structural overhang.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.52T
SEC 424B4 (IPO prospectus)
Enterprise Value
$2.53T
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$19.30B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Forward P/E
[awaiting: no consensus EPS]
consensus
P/S (TTM)
130.6×
via financials
P/B
32.3×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
[awaiting: EV unreliable post-IPO]
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
15.4%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.8%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
-41.6%
SEC filing
Net Margin
-48.5%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$-14.12B
SEC filing
FCF Yield
-0.6%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.7×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
[awaiting: too new]
exchange
Institutional Own.
0.0%
13F
Insider Own.
19.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
12.52B
SEC filing
Float
[awaiting: reported ~4-5%; locked IPO]
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$149.34
Base$164.00
Bull$193.00
Now $192.50
Bear Case
$149.34
Reverts toward the IPO range if the reported December lock-up adds supply to a thin float
Base Case
$164.00
Mean analyst 12-month target (5 analysts), below the current price
Bull Case
$193.00
Float scarcity and index-inclusion demand keep the small tradeable supply bid
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
-$14.12B
FCF Yield
-0.6%
Balance Sheet
$6.93B net debt
Rev CAGR
15%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | $2.52T | – | 130.6× | 286.1× | +15.0% | 49.0% | -48.5% |
| RKLB | $68.26B | – | 100.4× | – | +64.0% | 37.0% | -27.0% |
| ASTS | $33.99B | – | 400.2× | – | +1952.0% | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| LUNR | $4.13B | – | 12.4× | – | +199.0% | 10.0% | -33.0% |
| BA | $180.48B | 90.1× | 2.0× | – | +14.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| LMT | $122.28B | 26.2× | 1.6× | 17.6× | 0.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| RTX | $247.30B | 34.5× | 2.7× | 18.4× | +9.0% | 20.0% | 8.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 10,387 | 14,015 | 18,674 |
| Cost of Revenue | 6,110 | 7,996 | 9,451 |
| Gross Profit | 4,277 | 6,019 | 9,223 |
| Operating Income | 507.0 | 742.0 | (2,064) |
| EBITDA | (663.0) | 5,646 | 4,427 |
| Net Income | (4,628) | 791.0 | (4,937) |
| Diluted EPS | -0.44 | 0.00 | -0.51 |
| Line Item | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 11,385 | 24,747 |
| Total Assets | 57,062 | 92,079 |
| Total Debt | 14,175 | 23,318 |
| Total Liabilities | 31,258 | 50,754 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 25,804 | 41,325 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 13,076 | 13,076 |
| Line Item | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 4,520 | 5,776 | 6,785 |
| Capital Expenditure | (4,415) | (11,163) | (20,906) |
| Free Cash Flow | 105.0 | (5,387) | (14,121) |
| Investing Cash Flow | (4,867) | (10,796) | (19,575) |
| Financing Cash Flow | 422.0 | 11,830 | 26,350 |
Figures normalized from Space Exploration Technologies 's SEC 424B4 filed 2026-06-12. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 424B4 filed 2026-06-12 ↗
Catalysts
mid-Jun (reported)
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Listed options begin trading
Options are reported to start around mid-June, adding hedging and leveraged positioning around the small tradeable float.
Q2 results
Earningshigh relevance
First post-IPO quarterly report
The first public earnings will test the $19.3B revenue trajectory and the path away from a -48.5% net margin.
Lock-up expiry
Macrohigh relevance
Reported December lock-up expiration
Per the prospectus, the 180-day lock-up expires in early December 2026; the change in tradeable supply is the single biggest structural event.
flight tests
Product
Starship test cadence
Progress on fully reusable heavy-lift directly affects the Space segment and the long-horizon credibility of the story.
index review
Macro
Potential index-inclusion eligibility
If the float stabilizes after December, major-index inclusion would add passive demand; liquidity is the gating factor.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December lock-up expiry | Supply / liquidity | Critical | High | Per the prospectus, pre-IPO holders are under a 180-day lock-up expiring in early December 2026, subject to timed automatic releases. When that supply meets a thin tradeable float, the price can fall sharply absent new fundamental support. |
| Extreme valuation | Valuation | High | High | Roughly 130.6x sales and 32x book on an unprofitable company leave no margin for error; a growth slowdown or risk-off move can compress the multiple quickly. |
| Operating losses and cash burn | Financial | High | Medium | A -41.6% operating margin, -48.5% net margin and -$14.1B free cash flow burn through cash; the path to profitability depends on Starship and Starlink scaling. |
| Key-man and governance | Governance | High | Medium | Founder-CEO control with insiders near 19% and institutions near 0% concentrates governance; Elon Musk's attention is split across several companies. |
| Options-driven volatility | Market structure | High | High | Listed options are reported to begin around mid-June; on a thin float, option hedging and far-out-of-the-money call buying can magnify price swings in both directions. |
| Consensus below price | Valuation | Medium | Medium | The mean analyst target of $164 is below the current price, so even bullish coverage implies downside on fundamentals. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$149.34$192.50$193.00
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
385M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$149.34
Resistance Levels
$193.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Insiders hold ~19% of shares; institutions ~0% so far, since the first 13F filings will not appear until after the post-IPO quarter. Founder and CEO Elon Musk retains voting control.
No open-market insider transactions
None reported in the recent Form 4 window.
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | $2.52T | – | 130.6× | 286.1× | +15.0% | 49.0% | -48.5% |
| RKLB | $68.26B | – | 100.4× | – | +64.0% | 37.0% | -27.0% |
| ASTS | $33.99B | – | 400.2× | – | +1952.0% | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| LUNR | $4.13B | – | 12.4× | – | +199.0% | 10.0% | -33.0% |
| BA | $180.48B | 90.1× | 2.0× | – | +14.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| LMT | $122.28B | 26.2× | 1.6× | 17.6× | 0.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| RTX | $247.30B | 34.5× | 2.7× | 18.4× | +9.0% | 20.0% | 8.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-16yfinance + SEC 424B4
How these numbers were verified
Every figure on this page was cross-checked against live market data and the company's SEC filing on 2026-06-16. Price, market cap, multiples, margins, ownership and analyst targets come from yfinance and matched exactly on re-fetch. The financial statements, the 180-day lock-up, and the 6.82B Class A and 5.70B Class B share counts come from the SEC 424B4 IPO prospectus filed 2026-06-12. Reported float and lock-up figures are attributed as reported, since standard float feeds are unreliable for a locked IPO. Nothing on this page is modeled or estimated by us.
2026-06IPO prospectus (424B4)
A reported 4-5% float and the 180-day lock-up
SPCX listed on 2026-06-12 and rallied 19.6% from a $160.95 close to $192.50. Per the IPO prospectus, pre-IPO holders sit under a 180-day lock-up that expires in early December 2026, subject to timed automatic releases, which leaves only a small tradeable float (reported ~4-5%). The prospectus lists 6.82B Class A and 5.70B Class B shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. Standard float data feeds are unreliable for a locked IPO, so treat any single float figure with caution.
2026-06yfinance
SPCX vs Amazon: 95% of the cap, 2.6% of the revenue
At a $2.52T fully-diluted cap, SPCX is about 95% of Amazon's $2.65T value, yet its $19.3B revenue is only 2.6% of Amazon's $742.8B. The price-to-sales multiple of 130.6x is roughly 36.3x Amazon's 3.6x. The gap captures how much of the SPCX price rests on future growth rather than current sales.
2026-06Market reports + yfinance
Options on a thin float can magnify moves
Listed options are reported to begin around mid-June. On a small tradeable float, dealer hedging of options and heavy far-out-of-the-money call buying can magnify short-term price swings in both directions, independent of the underlying business. That is a market-structure effect, not a change in fundamentals.
2026-06Market reports
Index inclusion vs constrained supply
A company of this market-cap rank can eventually draw passive buying from index funds. With a thin tradeable float, that demand would chase limited supply, which can be reflexive on the way up and on the way down. Inclusion typically depends on liquidity and free-float criteria, which the reported lock-up currently constrains.
2026-06yfinance + market reports
Headline cap vs tradeable value
The headline valuation is a fully-diluted figure near $2.52T, but only a small reported fraction of shares actually trades, so the freely-traded value is a fraction of the headline. That is why the situation is best understood as scarcity-driven. The first real test of price discovery comes when the reported lock-up expires.
SpaceX valuation questions
Is SpaceX (SPCX) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, SpaceX trades above: $192.50 today versus a $164.00 estimate, about -15%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is SpaceX's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for SPCX is $164.00. Its valuation scenarios span bear $149.34, base $164.00, bull $193.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is SpaceX's market cap?
SpaceX (SPCX) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.52T, and an enterprise value of $2.53T.
What is the bull and bear case for SPCX?
Valuation scenarios: bull $193.00, base $164.00, bear $149.34. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.