Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)

The operating margin previously shown, -41.6%, is the quarter ended 31 March 2026 alone, operating income of -$1,954M on revenue of $4,694M, while the revenue figure of $19,301M beside it is trailing twelve months. On that trailing window operating income is -$2,064M for 2025 less $55M for the March 2025 quarter plus -$1,954M for the March 2026 quarter, which is -$4,073M, or -21.1%. The loss is half what the page claimed. The net margin previously shown, -48.5%, and the $9.36B net loss quoted in the thesis could not be reproduced from any net income line on this window. Five separate net income measures converge on -$8,685M, which is -45.0%, and the quarterly components agree to the dollar with the only 10-Q the company has filed, where the six months to 30 June 2026 show a net loss of $4,817M and the June quarter alone $541M. The company has no annual figures in SEC XBRL at all, since it registered this year, so the full-year inputs come from the financial statements in the registration statement rather than from tagged filing data, and the two quarters that overlap the 10-Q were checked against it directly. The conclusion on this page does not change. A company losing $4.1B at the operating line on $19.3B of revenue is not a value situation at 130.6 times sales.

Every figure on this page was cross-checked against live market data and the company's SEC filing on 2026-06-16. Price, market cap, multiples, margins, ownership and analyst targets come from yfinance and matched exactly on re-fetch. The financial statements, the 180-day lock-up, and the 6.82B Class A and 5.70B Class B share counts come from the SEC 424B4 IPO prospectus filed 2026-06-12. Reported float and lock-up figures are attributed as reported, since standard float feeds are unreliable for a locked IPO. Nothing on this page is modeled or estimated by us.

SPCX listed on 2026-06-12 and rallied 19.6% from a $160.95 close to $192.50. Per the IPO prospectus, pre-IPO holders sit under a 180-day lock-up that expires in early December 2026, subject to timed automatic releases, which leaves only a small tradeable float (reported ~4-5%). The prospectus lists 6.82B Class A and 5.70B Class B shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. Standard float data feeds are unreliable for a locked IPO, so treat any single float figure with caution.

At a $2.52T fully-diluted cap, SPCX is about 95% of Amazon's $2.65T value, yet its $19.3B revenue is only 2.6% of Amazon's $742.8B. The price-to-sales multiple of 130.6x is roughly 36.3x Amazon's 3.6x. The gap captures how much of the SPCX price rests on future growth rather than current sales.

Listed options are reported to begin around mid-June. On a small tradeable float, dealer hedging of options and heavy far-out-of-the-money call buying can magnify short-term price swings in both directions, independent of the underlying business. That is a market-structure effect, not a change in fundamentals.

A company of this market-cap rank can eventually draw passive buying from index funds. With a thin tradeable float, that demand would chase limited supply, which can be reflexive on the way up and on the way down. Inclusion typically depends on liquidity and free-float criteria, which the reported lock-up currently constrains.

The headline valuation is a fully-diluted figure near $2.52T, but only a small reported fraction of shares actually trades, so the freely-traded value is a fraction of the headline. That is why the situation is best understood as scarcity-driven. The first real test of price discovery comes when the reported lock-up expires.