Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $4.87
- Forward P/E
- 12.3×
- Market cap
- $626M
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.7×
CompaniesRSI.TO
RSI.TO
Rogers Sugar Inc.
Consumer DefensiveCanadaSugar refiningMaple syrupDividend
Overview
$4.87-0.0%
Market Cap
$626M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
P/E (TTM)
13.1×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Rev Growth YoY
–
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Gross Margin
16.5%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
FCF Yield
-2.9%
Calculated from Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Fair Value
Not established
Yahoo chart endpoint RSI
Conviction
4/5Canadian sugar refiner earning more on less volume while a CAD 280-300M capacity expansion commissions into first-half 2027.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 60/100
Value3/4
Future1/1
Past3/4
Health2/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Rogers Sugar Inc. operates Canada's Lantic sugar refining business alongside a maple syrup segment, and reports in CAD on a fiscal year ending in late September. The Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27 shows revenue of CAD 293.695M against CAD 320.445M a year earlier, and nine-month revenue of CAD 872.506M against CAD 989.958M, about -11.9% on the nine months. Earnings moved the other way: nine-month net income of CAD 53.256M versus CAD 50.781M, +4.9%, with adjusted EBITDA +8.8% and adjusted net earnings +13.3% year over year. The gap between falling revenue and rising profit points to price and mix rather than volume. The company-defined free cash flow measure, which excludes LEAP growth capex, was CAD 90.044M for the trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 against CAD 87.804M, +2.6%. LEAP, the Eastern Canada refining capacity expansion budgeted at CAD 280-300M, is in commissioning with full benefit expected in the first half of 2027, and is both the central catalyst and the central risk.
Bull Case
MarginNine-month FY2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 8.8% and adjusted net earnings 13.3% year over year even as nine-month revenue fell to CAD 872.506M from CAD 989.958M, indicating price and mix rather than volume drove the result.
CapacityLEAP, the Eastern Canada refining capacity expansion budgeted at CAD 280-300M, is in commissioning with full benefit expected in the first half of 2027, after Q3 FY2026 capex of CAD 34.1M on PP&E and intangibles of which about CAD 29.0M was LEAP spend.
Cash returnThe quarterly dividend stood at CAD 0.09 per share, CAD 0.27 across the nine months to 2026-06-27 and a CAD 0.36 annualised run rate, on a record of uninterrupted quarterly dividends spanning more than 16 years.
Bear Case
VolumeRevenue and sugar and maple volumes fell roughly 8% to 12% year over year, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of CAD 293.695M against CAD 320.445M, so the earnings gain rests on pricing that may not repeat.
LeverageAt 2026-06-27 cash was CAD 6.7M against CAD 116.0M drawn on the revolving credit facility and CAD 172.5M face value of convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, about CAD 288.5M gross and roughly CAD 282M net, near the 2x EBITDA line while LEAP is still consuming capital.
DisclosureThe headline free cash flow of CAD 90.044M for the trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 is a company-defined measure that excludes LEAP growth capex, so it flatters cash generation during the build; interest costs on the revolver and debentures and trade-policy sensitivity on a soft commodity input add further pressure.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$626M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Enterprise Value
$932M
Calculated from Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Revenue (TTM)
$874M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
P/E (TTM)
13.1×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Forward P/E
12.3×
Yahoo chart endpoint RSI
P/S (TTM)
0.7×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
P/B
2.5×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
EV/EBITDA
9.2×
Calculated from Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
PEG
–
Calculated from Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Revenue Growth
–
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Gross Margin
16.5%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Operating Margin
9.3%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Net Margin
5.5%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Free Cash Flow
$-18M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
FCF Yield
-2.9%
Calculated from Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Debt / Equity
0.9×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Current Ratio
1.7×
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Short Interest
–
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Institutional Own.
16.2%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Insider Own.
0.6%
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Shares Out.
128.5M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Float
126.9M
Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Now $4.87
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI.TO | $881M | 13.2× | 0.7× | 9.5× | -8.0% | 17.0% | 6.0% |
| SAP.TO | $15.85B | 22.9× | 0.9× | 10.9× | +2.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% |
| ADM | $41.23B | 23.4× | 0.5× | 16.5× | +7.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| INGR | $6.22B | 10.7× | 0.9× | 6.1× | +1.0% | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| HLF.TO | $392M | 11.5× | 0.3× | 9.0× | +12.0% | 19.0% | 2.0% |
Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Quoted locally at 6.81 CAD; price, market cap and technicals on this page are converted to USD at the 2026-09-17 spot rate. Reporting currency CAD. Fiscal year ends in late September; the quarter cited ended 2026-06-27 and is the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Source document is the Q3 FY2026 report released 2026-08-06 at https://lanticrogers.com/media/earning-releases/2026/08/rsi_q3-2026_report_en.pdf, with the 52-week range from the free Yahoo chart endpoint on 2026-09-17. Free cash flow as reported by the company is a non-GAAP, company-defined measure that excludes LEAP growth capex. Dividends paid by a Canadian issuer to a non-resident are subject to Canadian withholding tax, typically 15% under treaty; the CAD 0.36 annualised gross rate and the roughly 5.29% gross yield are before that deduction. Source: Interim results ↗
Catalysts
Q4 and FY2026 results, expected around December 2026
Earningshigh relevance
Fiscal 2026 full-year results
First full-year print covering the period in which LEAP moved into commissioning; tests whether the nine-month pattern of falling revenue with rising adjusted EBITDA holds through the fourth quarter.
First half of 2027
Corporatehigh relevance
LEAP full benefit
The company expects the full benefit of the Eastern Canada refining capacity expansion, budgeted at CAD 280-300M, in the first half of 2027. Timing or cost slippage would extend the period of elevated capex against a stretched balance sheet.
Quarterly
Corporate
Dividend declarations at CAD 0.09 per quarter
The CAD 0.09 quarterly rate, CAD 0.27 over the nine months to 2026-06-27, sits alongside LEAP capex of about CAD 29.0M in Q3 FY2026 alone; each declaration is a read on how management balances the two.
Ongoing
Macro
Sugar trade policy and US tariff developments
Sugar is a soft commodity input subject to trade policy, and tariff changes can reach a processor even where it is not a primary target. No specific measure is confirmed in the Q3 FY2026 report cited here.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume decline outruns pricing gains | Competition | Medium | Medium | Nine-month FY2026 revenue fell to CAD 872.506M from CAD 989.958M with sugar and maple volumes down roughly 8% to 12%; if price and mix normalise, the 8.8% adjusted EBITDA gain reverses. |
| Leverage near 2x EBITDA during the LEAP build | Financial | High | Medium | Net debt of roughly CAD 282M against CAD 6.7M of cash at 2026-06-27 leaves limited headroom if LEAP costs overrun the CAD 280-300M budget or commissioning slips past the first half of 2027. |
| Convertible debenture dilution | Financial | Medium | Medium | CAD 172.5M face value of convertible unsecured subordinated debentures is outstanding; the 128,543,773 shares outstanding at Q3 FY2026 are up only 0.34% year over year from option exercises, so the conversion overhang is not yet visible in the share count. |
| Interest-rate exposure on the revolver and debentures | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | CAD 116.0M drawn on the revolving credit facility plus the debenture stack means financing cost moves with rates while LEAP capex continues, squeezing the cash available for the CAD 0.36 annualised dividend. |
| Company-defined free cash flow overstates available cash | Governance | Medium | High | The CAD 90.044M trailing-twelve-month figure to 2026-06-27 excludes LEAP growth capex, which ran at about CAD 29.0M in Q3 FY2026 alone; readers using the headline measure will overestimate cash cover for dividends and debt reduction. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
–$4.87–
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
UNVERIFIED. No controller or insider ownership figure was confirmed from a primary source in this research pass. Rogers Sugar Inc. is a Canadian reporting issuer, so insider positions are filed on SEDI and ownership and related-party detail appears in the management information circular and annual report filed on SEDAR+ (https://www.sedarplus.ca). Those documents should be read before any ownership claim is made.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI.TO | $881M | 13.2× | 0.7× | 9.5× | -8.0% | 17.0% | 6.0% |
| SAP.TO | $15.85B | 22.9× | 0.9× | 10.9× | +2.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% |
| ADM | $41.23B | 23.4× | 0.5× | 16.5× | +7.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| INGR | $6.22B | 10.7× | 0.9× | 6.1× | +1.0% | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| HLF.TO | $392M | 11.5× | 0.3× | 9.0× | +12.0% | 19.0% | 2.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, r; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17Company release
Q3 FY2026: revenue down, earnings up
The Q3 FY2026 report for the quarter ended 2026-06-27, released 2026-08-06, shows quarterly revenue of CAD 293.695M against CAD 320.445M a year earlier and quarterly net income of CAD 12.059M. Nine-month net income of CAD 53.256M against CAD 50.781M, with adjusted EBITDA +8.8% and adjusted net earnings +13.3%, came on nine-month revenue that fell to CAD 872.506M from CAD 989.958M.
2026-09-17Company release
LEAP capex and the company-defined cash measure
Q3 FY2026 capex was CAD 34.1M of property, plant and equipment and intangibles, of which about CAD 29.0M was LEAP growth-project spend. The company-defined free cash flow of CAD 90.044M for the trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27, against CAD 87.804M the prior period, excludes that LEAP growth capex, so it is not a measure of cash left after the expansion is paid for.
2026-09-17Research
Valuation estimates and price context
At CAD 6.81 on 2026-09-17, market capitalisation is about CAD 875.4M, roughly 626M USD at 1.3987 CAD per USD. Estimates from this research pass, all approximate: P/E about 10.9x to 12.2x on nine-month actuals run-rated, enterprise value about CAD 1,157M giving EV/EBITDA of roughly 7.2x to 8.1x, free cash flow yield about 10.3% on the company-defined measure, and a gross dividend yield of about 5.29%. The Yahoo chart endpoint fetched this research pass gives a 52-week range of CAD 5.86 to CAD 7.16.
Sources
Rogers Sugar Inc. valuation questions
What is Rogers Sugar Inc.'s forward P/E ratio?
Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO) trades at a forward P/E of 12.3×, and 0.7× trailing sales.
What is Rogers Sugar Inc.'s market cap?
Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $626M, and an enterprise value of $932M.