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Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) (FNMA) valuation at a glance
Price
$4.91
Market cap
$5.69B
P/S (TTM)
0.2×
FNMA

Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)

Financial ServicesGSEconservatorshipmortgage guarantyOTC

Overview

$4.91-2.8%
Compare
Market Cap
$5.69B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
0.4×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
SEC filings
Gross Margin
100.0%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
yfinance
Conviction
1/5
Large GAAP earnings accrue almost entirely to Treasury's senior preferred; the common is an option on conservatorship exit, a live kill-check.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 58/100
ValueFuturePastHealthDividend
Value2/2
Futuren/a
Past3/3
Health1/3
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.

Thesis

Fannie Mae buys mortgages from lenders and packages them into guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. It has operated under FHFA conservatorship since 2008-09-06, and the common stock trades over the counter. The name surfaces on generic screens because GAAP net income was 3,982M USD in Q2 2026 and 7,702M USD in the first half, against a common market value near 5.7B USD. That headline is misleading: net income attributable to common stockholders was only 152M USD in Q2 and 217M USD in the half, because the senior preferred liquidation preference, 234.2B USD at 2026-06-30 and rising, absorbs nearly all net worth growth. Treasury also holds a warrant for 79.9% of the common exercisable at a nominal price. On common-attributable earnings the research file computes a P/E near 25x, and common-attributable book value is approximately negative once the senior preferred carrying value is netted from 116.5B USD total equity. The 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 describes uncertainty about any exit with no committed date. Confirmation would require a filed PSPA amendment or FHFA action that converts or writes down the senior preferred on terms that leave value for common.
Bull Case
Earnings powerGAAP net income was 4.0B USD in Q2 2026 and 7.7B USD in the first half per the 10-Q filed 2026-07-29.
Capital buildTotal GAAP net worth reached 116.5B USD at 2026-06-30 with senior preferred dividends to Treasury set at zero for Q2 and Q3 2026, retained instead as liquidation preference.
Event optionalityThe 10-Q risk factors name an exit from conservatorship as a live uncertainty, and any PSPA amendment or recapitalization would reprice the common on new terms.
Bear Case
StructureNet income attributable to common was 152M USD in Q2 2026 versus 3,982M USD total, as the 234.2B USD senior preferred liquidation preference absorbs net worth growth.
DilutionTreasury's warrant covers 79.9% of the common at a nominal price, implying roughly fivefold dilution of existing holders on exercise.
GovernanceFHFA as conservator has controlled the company since 2008 with no legally committed exit date; ordinary governance, buybacks and common dividends are suspended.

Key Metrics

Market Cap
$5.69B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$29.29B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
0.4×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
yfinance
P/S (TTM)
0.2×
SEC filings
P/B
0.1×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
SEC filings
Gross Margin
100.0%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
75.8%
SEC filings
Net Margin
49.7%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
SEC filings
FCF Yield
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
36.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
106.5×
SEC filings
Short Interest
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
21.2%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
0.0%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
1.16B
SEC filings
Float
1.16B
SEC filings

Valuation

Price vs Fair Value
Now $4.91
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Deep Research
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
FNMA$5.76B124.2×0.2×+9.0%100.0%54.0%
FMCC$2.92B0.1×+34.0%100.0%53.0%
AGNC$11.93B5.0×5.0×100.0%94.0%
MTG$6.08B9.3×5.1×7.0×-3.0%93.0%59.0%
ESNT$6.10B9.5×4.6×6.9×+14.0%76.0%51.0%
RDN$4.66B8.7×2.8×5.9×+94.0%69.0%33.0%

Financials

Income statement
Line ItemFY22FY23FY24FY25
Total Revenue30,72230,08730,79429,159
Net Income12,92317,40816,97814,364
Diluted EPS0.000.000.000.00
Balance sheet
Line ItemFY22FY23FY24FY25
Cash & Equivalents57,98735,81713,47711,452
Total Assets4,305,2884,325,4374,349,7314,317,538
Total Debt4,221,8884,222,7184,228,0974,180,429
Total Liabilities4,245,0114,247,7554,255,0744,208,526
Shareholders' Equity60,27777,68294,657109,012
Shares Out. (M)1,1581,1581,1581,158
Cash flow
Line ItemFY22FY23FY24FY25
Operating Cash Flow43,82611,883(10,520)23,989
Free Cash Flow43,82611,883(10,520)23,989
Investing Cash Flow90,128119,275152,245186,904
Financing Cash Flow(154,744)(130,168)(137,170)(206,846)
Figures normalized from Fannie Mae's SEC 10-K filed 2026-02-11. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-02-11

Catalysts

Q3 2026 10-Q, late October or early November
Earnings
Third quarter 2026 report
Updates the liquidation preference (scheduled to reach about 238.0B USD) and any new conservatorship language.
No committed date; policy dependent
Regulatory
PSPA amendment or FHFA release process
The PSPA gives Treasury consent rights over any release and requires public input; a filed amendment is the only durable catalyst for the common.
FY2026 10-K, mid-February 2027
Earnings
Annual report and capital status
Shows full-year common-attributable earnings and regulatory capital shortfall versus the ERCF requirement.

Risks

Risk matrix
RiskCategorySeverityProbabilityImpact on Thesis
Conservatorship continues indefinitelyRegulatoryHighHighCommon remains a residual claim behind a growing senior preferred, with no dividends.
Exit terms favor Treasury (warrant exercise, preferred conversion at par)GovernanceHighMediumExisting common diluted about fivefold before any value is shared.
Housing credit cycle turnsMarket/MacroMediumMediumCredit losses reduce net worth growth and lengthen the path to any capital target.
Litigation over the net worth sweep resolves against shareholdersRegulatoryMediumMediumRemoves a legal path to recovering value for junior holders.

Technical Snapshot

52-Week Range
$4.91
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
insufficient history
200-Day MA
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.

Ownership & Insider Activity

Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
Controlled by the US government through FHFA conservatorship since 2008-09-06. Treasury holds senior preferred stock with a 234.2B USD liquidation preference at 2026-06-30 and a warrant for 79.9% of the common at a nominal price. Form 4 activity is not a meaningful signal under conservatorship; no buyback and no common dividend.
Insider transactions
NameTitleActionSharesPriceDateValue
Stucky MichaelDirectorBuy8K$6.412025-05-06$51.3K
Stucky MichaelDirectorSell8K$6.402025-05-08$51.2K
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.

Peer Comparison

TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
FNMA$5.76B124.2×0.2×+9.0%100.0%54.0%
FMCC$2.92B0.1×+34.0%100.0%53.0%
AGNC$11.93B5.0×5.0×100.0%94.0%
MTG$6.08B9.3×5.1×7.0×-3.0%93.0%59.0%
ESNT$6.10B9.5×4.6×6.9×+14.0%76.0%51.0%
RDN$4.66B8.7×2.8×5.9×+94.0%69.0%33.0%
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.

Research Notes

2026-09-17SEC 10-Q
Q2 2026 results and preferred sweep
Net income was 4.0B USD in Q2 2026, but only 152M USD was attributable to common stockholders. The senior preferred liquidation preference grew to 234.2B USD with Q2 and Q3 dividends to Treasury set at zero and retained instead.
2026-09-17Research
Common-attributable valuation
Using XBRL NetIncomeLossAvailableToCommonStockholdersBasic, trailing common-attributable net income is about 227M USD, giving a P/E near 25x at 4.91 USD. Book value per common share is approximately negative after netting the senior preferred carrying value.

Sources

Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) valuation questions

What is Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)'s market cap?

Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) (FNMA) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $5.69B.