Payoneer Global (PAYO) valuation at a glance
Payoneer Global (PAYO) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $7.17 versus a $7.40 estimate, that is a 3% upside.
- Price
- $7.17
- Fair value estimate
- $7.40
- Upside
- +3%
- Market cap
- $2.43B
- P/S (TTM)
- 2.3×
CompaniesPAYO
PAYO
Payoneer Global
Financial ServicesFintechCross-BorderSMB Payments
Overview
$7.17-0.1%
Market Cap
$2.43B
Company filings / IR
P/E (TTM)
48.3×
Company filings / IR
Rev Growth YoY
6.3%
+6.3%Company filings / IR
Gross Margin
85.4%
Company filings / IR
FCF Yield
4.8%
Calculated from Company filings / IR
Upside to FV
+3.2%
comparable-company analysis
Conviction
1/5A cross-border payments network that signed a merger agreement on 12 June 2026 converting each share into $7.40 in cash, so the $7.17 price is a 3.2% spread to an agreed number rather than a multiple of the $50.3M the business earned on $1,081.4M of revenue.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 7d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 66/100
Value4/5
Future1/2
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
REBUILT 7 September 2026. This page described a standalone business trading on its multiples. It is not one. Note 1 of the quarterly report for the period ended 30 June 2026 records that on 12 June 2026 Payoneer signed a merger agreement under which each share converts into $7.40 in cash. The board approved it unanimously, antitrust waiting periods were terminated early on 28 July 2026, the outside date is 12 June 2027, and the company would owe an $89.0M break fee against a $165.0M reverse fee the other way. The page carried none of that, and published a fair value of $6.88, which is below the agreed cash price. Its scenarios described a security that no longer trades on its own earnings. Everything below is restated on the filings. The trailing business earned $50.3M on $1,081.4M of revenue, a 4.65% net margin, at a 10.38% operating margin, and holds $346.3M of cash against no borrowings of any kind. What an outside holder now owns is a claim on $7.40 in cash if the transaction closes and on that business if it does not.
Bull Case
Float income is a fifth, not a halfRevenue that is not from contracts with customers, which is the float, was 20.9% of the trailing year and 22.7% of 2025. The page previously said 57%. The highest any filed year reaches is 28.9%. The hedges are 3% interest rate floors on $2.2B of notional maturing between 2027 and 2030, not swaps, and in 2025 they REDUCED revenue by $3.42M.
Volume is growingPayment volume was $87.5B in 2025 against $80.1B in 2024. The company gives no volume guidance for 2026. No filing read for this page describes a trust-bank charter application or a stablecoin, so those claims are withdrawn rather than restated.
The market has taken the deal alreadyThe agreed cash consideration of $7.40 is 3.2% above the $7.17 last close. The spread has closed almost entirely, so what is left is a short-dated arbitrage on a transaction that has already cleared antitrust, not a discount to any view of fundamental value.
Net cash and no borrowingsCash of $346.3M at 30 June 2026 against no borrowings on the face of the balance sheet. The $497M this page carried was the 31 December 2024 balance, eighteen months stale.
Enterprise value under seven timesAn enterprise value of $1,493.6M against trailing EBITDA of $188.0M is 7.94 times. The page previously said five, which its own enterprise value field never supported.
Bear Case
Charter ScopeIt is a national trust-bank charter, not a full deposit-taking bank, the lending ramp may be slower than the market expects.
Rate sensitivity is real but smaller20.9% of trailing revenue rides on float income and it FELL 10.5% in 2025 as rates came down. The claim that a 200 basis point cut costs about $100M of revenue appears in no filing and is withdrawn.
ConcentrationOne marketplace was 21% of REVENUE in 2025, against 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2023. The page stated 23% of VOLUME, which is both the wrong year and the wrong denominator.
CompetitionWorldFirst (Ant Group) can subsidize fees indefinitely; Wise and Airwallex pressure take rate.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.43B
Company filings / IR
Enterprise Value
$2.08B
Calculated from Company filings / IR
Revenue (TTM)
$1.08B
Company filings / IR
P/E (TTM)
48.3×
Company filings / IR
Forward P/E
[awaiting: the company gives no guidance beyond 2026 and the merger is pending]
comparable-company analysis
P/S (TTM)
2.3×
Company filings / IR
P/B
3.7×
Company filings / IR
EV/EBITDA
11.1×
Calculated from Company filings / IR
PEG
–
Calculated from Company filings / IR
Revenue Growth
6.3%
Company filings / IR
Gross Margin
85.4%
Company filings / IR
Operating Margin
10.4%
Company filings / IR
Net Margin
4.6%
Company filings / IR
Free Cash Flow
$116M
Company filings / IR
FCF Yield
4.8%
Calculated from Company filings / IR
Debt / Equity
0.0×
Company filings / IR
Current Ratio
1.0×
Company filings / IR
Short Interest
7.0%
Company filings / IR
Institutional Own.
85.0%
Company filings / IR
Insider Own.
12.0%
Company filings / IR
Shares Out.
338.9M
Company filings / IR
Float
[awaiting: exchange data]
Company filings / IR
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$4.35
Base$7.40
Bull$7.40
Now $7.17
Bear Case
$4.35
the merger terminates: 6x trailing EBITDA of $188.0M plus net cash of $346.3M, over 338,850,836 shares
Base Case
$7.40
the cash consideration agreed in the merger agreement of 12 June 2026
Bull Case
$7.40
a cash deal has no case above its own price; the bull case is that it closes
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
11%
Terminal Growth
3%
Projection
5y
Rev CAGR
14%
Intrinsic / Share
$6.88
Margin of Safety
3.11%
Withdrawn. The intrinsic value below predates the merger agreement of 12 June 2026, and the stablecoin and charter case it rested on appears in no filing read for this page.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 3.4× | 43.5× |
| FY23 | 20.0× | 3.1× | – |
| FY24 | 29.8× | 5.0× | – |
| FY25 | 26.8× | 2.4× | 8.5× |
| TTM · | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| WU | $2.34B | 5.5× | 0.6× | 4.6× | 0.0% | 36.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| FOUR | $3.96B | 45.9× | 0.9× | 9.9× | +32.0% | 35.0% | 3.0% |
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
Financials
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $977.7M | $1,052.8M | $1,090–1,130M | +7.7% |
| Revenue from contracts with customers | $710.3M | $813.4M | $900–940M | +14.5% |
| Revenue not from contracts, the float 3% interest rate floors on $2.2B of notional, maturing 2027 to 2030; they reduced 2025 revenue by $3.4M. The company gives no 2026 interest guidance | $267.4M | $239.4M | — | -10.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA the company's own reconciliation to net income | $270.6M | $271.7M | $275–285M | +0.4% |
| Payment volume the company gives no 2026 volume guidance | $80.1B | $87.5B | — | +9.2% |
| Item | Latest | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $346.3M | at 30 June 2026; the $497M this page carried was the December 2024 balance |
| Borrowings | $0 | no borrowings line on the face of the balance sheet |
| Shares Outstanding | 338.9M | 10-Q cover, 31 July 2026 |
| Outstanding operating balances | $7,747.7M | customer funds at 30 June 2026 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 84.0 | 159.5 | 176.9 | 233.5 |
| Capital Expenditure | (28.8) | (47.8) | (60.4) | (87.7) |
| Free Cash Flow | 55.1 | 111.7 | 116.5 | 145.8 |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.7 | (44.3) | (1,961) | (218.3) |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1,461 | 512.0 | 427.8 | 738.0 |
Figures normalized from Payoneer Global Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-02-26. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-02-26 ↗
Catalysts
By
M&Ahigh relevance
Merger at $7.40 in cash, or the outside date
The merger agreement signed on 12 June 2026 converts each share into $7.40 in cash. The board approved it unanimously, the antitrust waiting period was terminated early on 28 July 2026, and the outside date is 12 June 2027. The company would owe an $89.0M termination fee; the acquirer would owe $165.0M the other way. $10.6M of transaction costs are already in first-half administrative expense.
Aug '26
Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings
Watch take-rate trend and float-income guidance.
H2 2026 – H1 2027
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Withdrawn: the trust-bank charter
Withdrawn on 7 September 2026. Neither the 2025 annual report nor the June 2026 quarterly report contains the words trust bank, national trust or OCC charter, and the quarterly report does not contain the word stablecoin at all. The application may be real; no filing read for this page carries it. Formerly: filed Feb 2026, enables lending and a PAYO-USD stablecoin; ~30–40% of the upside case.
2026
Regulatory
India RBI AD-II authorization
The authorisation is real; the $300B remittance market figure this page attached to it is not in any filing and is withdrawn.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The merger may not close | M&A | High | Live | The $7.40 in cash depends on a transaction that has not completed. The outside date is 12 June 2027 and the company would owe an $89.0M termination fee. If it terminates, what is left is a business earning $50.3M on $1,081.4M of revenue, and the bear case on this page is what that is worth. |
| Float income falls with rates | Market/Macro | Medium | Continuous | Revenue not from contracts with customers, which is the float, was 20.9% of the trailing year and FELL 10.5% in 2025 as rates came down. The hedges are 3% interest rate floors on $2.2B of notional maturing between 2027 and 2030, and they reduced 2025 revenue by $3.42M. No filing carries a rate sensitivity in dollars, so the figure this page used to publish is withdrawn. |
| One marketplace is a fifth of revenue | Competition | High | Certain | One marketplace was 21% of total revenue in 2025, against 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2023. The concentration is falling but it is still a fifth of the top line, and this page previously stated it as a share of volume, which it is not. |
| WorldFirst (Ant Group) competition | Competition | High | Medium | Well-capitalized rival can subsidize fees; Payoneer must compete on service quality and marketplace lock-in. |
| AML / multi-jurisdiction compliance | Regulatory | High | Medium | Operating in 190+ countries; any major AML failure would be existential. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$4.27$7.17$7.18
RSI (14)
65
neutral
50-Day MA
$7.12
+0.7%above
200-Day MA
$5.83
+23.0%above
Avg Vol (30d)
4.3M
-68%vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: Company filings / IR. closing prices, 252 sessions to the last close; average volume over the last 30 sessions
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 40.0M | 11.94% | +2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Technology Crossover Management VIII, Ltd. | 34.2M | 10.21% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Susquehanna Capital Management, LLC | 20.5M | 6.14% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 14.7M | 4.40% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding S.A. | 13.7M | 4.10% | -0.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 12.5M | 3.75% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | 10.9M | 3.27% | +1.5% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Institutional ownership is high (~85%); founder and management retain a meaningful economic stake.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galit Scott H | Director | Sell | 1.1M | $6.74 | 2025-06-04 | $7.3M |
| Morgan Susanna | Director | Sell | 16K | $6.77 | 2025-06-02 | $110K |
| Peri Itai | Officer | Sell | 47K | $8.11 | 2025-03-04 | $381K |
| Ordonez Beatrice | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 85K | $10.40 | 2025-01-21 | $884K |
| Galit Scott H | Director | Sell | 484K | $10.30 | 2025-01-07 | $5.0M |
| Goldman Tsafi | Officer | Sell | 96K | $10.07 | 2025-01-02 | $970K |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| WU | $2.34B | 5.5× | 0.6× | 4.6× | 0.0% | 36.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| FOUR | $3.96B | 45.9× | 0.9× | 9.9× | +32.0% | 35.0% | 3.0% |
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: Company filings / IR; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-07Forensic
The page described a company that had already agreed to be sold
Every figure in the income statement table was wrong and the largest omission was not a figure at all. Revenue for 2024 was published at $817M against a filed $977.7M and for 2025 at $932M against $1,052.8M; $817M matches no annual revenue the company has ever filed. The volume row was shifted a year. Adjusted EBITDA was published as growing 26% when the company's own reconciliation shows it grew 0.4%. Cash of $497M was the December 2024 balance and customer float of $5.6B was the wrong quantity at the wrong date. Interest income was said to be 57% of revenue when it is 20.9% of the trailing year and has never exceeded 28.9% in any filed year, and the interest-rate swaps said to lock $130M a year are 3% rate floors that reduced 2025 revenue by $3.4M. Underneath all of it, the company signed a merger agreement on 12 June 2026 at $7.40 a share in cash, ten days after this page was last updated, and the page published a fair value of $6.88, below the agreed price.
2026-06-02Internal
Grade-C screen, highest-conviction read
Cheapest profitable cross-border fintech on EV/EBITDA (~5× vs peers 15–25×). Charter approval and float-income durability are the key swing factors; risk/reward is asymmetric on the published DCF.
2026-09-07Forensic
The charter note is withdrawn
A note dated 30 May 2026 stated that the company had filed for a national trust-bank charter and that a lending and stablecoin ramp was real. Neither the 2025 annual report nor the June 2026 quarterly report contains the words trust bank, national trust or OCC charter, and the quarterly report does not contain the word stablecoin at all. The application may exist; no filing read for this page carries it, so the claim is withdrawn rather than restated.
Sources
Payoneer Global valuation questions
Is Payoneer Global (PAYO) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Payoneer Global trades below: $7.17 today versus a $7.40 estimate, about +3%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Payoneer Global's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for PAYO is $7.40. Its valuation scenarios span bear $4.35, base $7.40, bull $7.40. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Payoneer Global's market cap?
Payoneer Global (PAYO) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.43B, and an enterprise value of $2.08B.
What is the bull and bear case for PAYO?
Valuation scenarios: bull $7.40, base $7.40, bear $4.35. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.