PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $9.73 versus a $11.27 estimate, that is a 16% upside.
- Price
- $9.73
- Fair value estimate
- $11.27
- Upside
- +16%
- Market cap
- $2.70B
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.7×
PagSeguro Digital
Overview
Thesis
Key Metrics
Valuation
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 1.8× | 0.2× | 2.1× |
| FY23 | 2.3× | 0.2× | 4.3× |
| FY24 | 0.9× | 0.1× | 5.4× |
| FY25 | 1.2× | 0.1× | 5.0× |
| TTM · | 6.3× | 0.1× | 0.3× |
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| NU | $60.43B | 19.1× | 8.0× | – | +44.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Financials
| Line Item (R$ thousands) | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue and income FY2023 was 15,948,401, so annual growth slowed from 17.9% to 8.5%. Six months to 30 June: 9,908,326 in 2025 and 10,085,850 in 2026, up 1.8%. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: 20,588,036 | 18,809,632 | 20,410,512 | +8.5% |
| Of which transaction activities and other services The payments line fell R$1,024,628 thousand. This is the only revenue component that declined | 9,183,282 | 8,158,654 | -11.2% |
| Of which financial income Rose R$2,434,179 thousand, which is 152% of the R$1,600,880 thousand increase in the total. 48.6% of revenue in FY2024 and 56.8% in FY2025 | 9,150,427 | 11,584,606 | +26.6% |
| Other financial income A filed line of the statement of income, tagged as other income | 475,923 | 667,252 | +40.2% |
| Net income for the year Non-controlling interests are nil in every period, so the whole of this is attributable to owners. Six months to 30 June: 1,061,851 in 2025 and 1,094,601 in 2026, up 3.1%, while basic earnings per share over the same halves went R$3.5320 to R$3.9388, up 11.5%, the gap being a smaller share count. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: 2,151,112, a net margin of 10.448% | 2,116,368 | 2,118,362 | +0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share (R$) On a weighted average of 295,198,455 shares; diluted R$7.1118 on 297,867,858. FY2024 was basic R$6.6953 and diluted R$6.6238. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: R$7.5829, or US$1.378 at R$5.5024 | – | 7.1761 | – |
| Item (R$ thousands) | 31 Dec 2025 | 30 Jun 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | 74,409,523 | 75,697,476 | US$13,523.1M and US$13,757.2M at R$5.5024 |
| Total liabilities (assets less equity) | 59,769,953 | 60,681,611 | US$11,028.2M at 30 June 2026. A bank's deposits and funding, not corporate borrowings |
| Total equity | 14,639,570 | 15,015,865 | US$2,660.6M and US$2,729.0M. Book value US$9.83 a share against a US$9.73 price |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,857,507 | 623,676 | US$337.6M then US$113.3M, down 66.4% in six months. One line of a bank balance sheet, not the liquidity position |
| Assets to equity | 5.08x | 5.04x | The equity is roughly a fifth of the balance sheet, so a credit result reaches it geared five times |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,549 | 4,000 | (3,416) | 7,562 |
| Capital Expenditure | (2,136) | (1,988) | (2,321) | (2,277) |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,413 | 2,011 | (5,737) | 5,286 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (2,185) | (2,704) | (1,830) | (2,300) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (1,330) | (226.0) | 3,275 | (4,333) |
Catalysts
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The business the company is named for is shrinking. | Business | High | Certain | Transaction activities and other services fell from R$9,183,282 thousand in FY2024 to R$8,158,654 thousand in FY2025, down 11.2%. The headline growth of 8.5% is arithmetic on a different line. A reader who sees only the total is reading a growing company; the filing shows a shrinking payments franchise inside a growing bank. |
| All of the growth, and more, is spread income. | Business | High | Certain | Financial income rose R$2,434,179 thousand against a total revenue increase of R$1,600,880 thousand, so 152% of the growth. That income is a function of the Brazilian rate environment and the size of a credit book, neither of which is a payments moat, and neither of which is forecast anywhere on this page. |
| Net income has been flat for two years. | Earnings quality | High | Certain | R$2,116,368 thousand in FY2024 and R$2,118,362 thousand in FY2025, a change of 0.09%. The revenue mix moved by more than eight points of the total in the same year and the profit did not move at all, which means the replacement revenue arrived at a margin that exactly offset what was lost. That is a coincidence this page cannot explain from the verified figures. |
| No EBITDA exists, so no EV/EBITDA multiple can. | Data | High | Certain | The FY2025 Form 20-F does not report EBITDA as a financial measure anywhere. The word appears once in the document, inside a citation of a magazine award. Any EV/EBITDA figure published for this company, including the 7.53 and 5.8 this page itself carried, was manufactured outside the filings. The field is left empty here rather than filled. |
| Enterprise value is not a meaningful measure for this filer. | Data | High | Certain | Enterprise value is market capitalisation plus debt less cash. At 30 June 2026 this company held R$75,697,476 thousand of assets against R$15,015,865 thousand of equity, so R$60,681,611 thousand of liabilities, of which R$31,863,969 thousand are banking issuances. Those are the raw material of the business, not a claim to be netted off. Adding them to market capitalisation produces US$13,728.4M, more than five times the market value of the company; netting the cash against them produces a number that means nothing. The field is null. |
| Every figure is in reais, translated at one day's rate. | Market | High | Certain | The dollar figures on this page are the filed reais divided by 5.5024, the rate the company states for 31 December 2025. A year of revenue was not earned at one day's rate, and the 30 June 2026 balance sheet is translated at a rate six months stale. A US holder's return is this company's result multiplied by a currency move, and the previous version of this page carried a currency error of roughly 68% in exactly that arithmetic. |
| The equity is a fifth of the balance sheet. | Balance sheet | High | Certain | Assets of R$75,697,476 thousand against equity of R$15,015,865 thousand at 30 June 2026 is 5.04 times, and 5.08 times at 31 December 2025. A loss on the credit book reaches shareholders geared five times. The loan book, its provisions and its arrears are not among the verified figures on this page, so the size of that exposure is unmeasured here. |
| Cash and cash equivalents fell 66.4% in six months. | Balance sheet | Medium | Certain | R$1,857,507 thousand at 31 December 2025 and R$623,676 thousand at 30 June 2026. On a bank balance sheet this single line is not the liquidity position and the movement may be an ordinary reallocation into securities, but it is a fall of R$1,233,831 thousand that the verified figures do not explain, and it is recorded rather than smoothed over. |
| The share count carries two treasury figures. | Data | Medium | Certain | Share capital after the cancellation described in Note 33, subsequent events, is 170,218,201 Class A, of which 11,158,370 are treasury, plus 120,459,508 Class B, so 290,677,709 issued. The beneficial ownership table dated 31 March 2026 shows 13,160,932 treasury shares. This page uses the later and larger figure, giving 277,516,777 outstanding, which gives fewer shares and so raises book value per share and every scenario value while lowering the earnings multiple; it is the later figure, not the more cautious one. Buybacks after 31 March 2026 would lower it further and are not reflected. |
| Most of the standard metric set is unestablished. | Coverage | Medium | Certain | Gross margin, operating margin, free cash flow, the free cash flow yield, debt to equity, the current ratio, short interest, institutional and insider ownership and the float are all empty on this page. They are empty because the two filings verified in this pass do not supply them, not because they do not exist. A reader should treat this page as an income statement and balance sheet page and nothing more. |
Technical Snapshot
Ownership & Insider Activity
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 16.6M | 7.85% | -2.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. | 9.1M | 4.30% | +37.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Artemis Investment Management Llp | 8.5M | 4.02% | +25.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | 7.1M | 3.37% | +20.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polunin Capital Partners Ltd | 5.0M | 2.36% | +12.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 4.9M | 2.30% | +23.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | 4.5M | 2.11% | -3.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnani Alexandre | Director | Sell | 200K | $11.26 | 2026-04-17 | $2.3M |
| Frias Luis | Director | Buy | 498K | $9.99 | 2026-03-27 | $5.0M |
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| NU | $60.43B | 19.1× | 8.0× | – | +44.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Research Notes
Sources
PagSeguro Digital valuation questions
Is PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, PagSeguro Digital trades below: $9.73 today versus a $11.27 estimate, about +16%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is PagSeguro Digital's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for PAGS is $11.27. Its valuation scenarios span bear $7.04, base $11.27, bull $15.50. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is PagSeguro Digital's market cap?
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.70B.
What is the bull and bear case for PAGS?
Valuation scenarios: bull $15.50, base $11.27, bear $7.04. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.