PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) valuation at a glance
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $9.14 versus a $14.50 estimate, that is a 59% upside.
- Price
- $9.14
- Fair value estimate
- $14.50
- Upside
- +59%
- Forward P/E
- 6.5×
- Market cap
- $2.16B
- P/S (TTM)
- 2.1×
CompaniesPAGS
Overview
PAGS
PagSeguro Digital
Financial ServicesFintechPaymentsDigital BankingBrazil
$9.14+1.3%
Market Cap
$2.16B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2025)
P/E (TTM)
9.5×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
15.6%
+15.6%SEC filing
Gross Margin
31.7%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
6.9%
calculated
Upside to FV
+58.6%
vs fair value
Conviction
5/5Cheapest profitable fintech on every multiple — 9.5× P/E, 22% net margin, shrinking share count, take-rate stable through PIX.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Data as of 2026-06-03
Quality Snowflake
Overall 95/100
Value5/5
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend3/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
PagSeguro trades at 9.5× earnings while compounding net income ~18% YoY and buying back ~3.7% of shares annually. The market prices it as a melting ice cube; the filings show a profitable, net-cash payments-plus-banking franchise whose take rate has stayed near ~4.0% for five straight quarters despite PIX. Re-rating to even half the peer multiple implies meaningful upside, and a Brazilian rate-cut cycle is the catalyst.
Bull Case
ValuationCheapest on every metric vs global fintech peers — #1 on P/E (9.5×), EV/EBITDA (5.8×), P/S, P/B and PEG (0.6×).
Take RateTake rate stable at ~4.0% across 5 quarters; +10bps YoY. In-store POS (higher margin) growing 22% vs 12% online.
Capital Return$300M buyback authorization (~$176M remaining); share count fell ~245M → ~236M YoY. Buyback exceeds SBC dilution — genuine net shrinkage.
Credit QualityNPL 90+ peaked at 3.1% and fell to 3.0%; 210% provision coverage vs Nubank ~170%. Payroll loans are 43% of book at ~1.5% charge-off.
Profitability22% net margin — highest in the peer set. Net income R$472.5M in Q1 2025, +18.3% YoY.
Bear Case
TaxBrazil enacted 10% dividend withholding on nonresidents from Jan 2026 (Law 15,270/2025); no US–Brazil treaty for full credit offset.
CompetitionPIX instant payments structurally pressure transaction economics over time, even if take rate is stable today.
Macro / FXBRL volatility and Selic path drive both financial income and USD-translated returns. The cheap multiple is partly an FX-risk discount.
DisclosureReported FCF (R$1.1B) is inflated by ~R$770M of customer-deposit inflows — a liability, not earnings. Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter.
SentimentShort interest ~15%. Low headline revenue growth (~12%) keeps growth funds away.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.16B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2025)
Enterprise Value
$1.67B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$3.65B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
9.5×
via financials
Forward P/E
6.5×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
2.1×
via financials
P/B
1.2×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.8×
calculated
PEG
0.6×
calculated
Revenue Growth
15.6%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
31.7%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
10.1%
SEC filing
Net Margin
22.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$150M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
6.9%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.4×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.4×
SEC filing
Short Interest
15.0%
exchange
Institutional Own.
62.0%
13F
Insider Own.
22.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
236.0M
SEC filing
Float
184.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$7.50
Base$14.50
Bull$22.00
Now $9.14
Bear Case
$7.50
Continued de-rating, take-rate slips below 3.8%
Base Case
$14.50
11× normalized EPS + buyback accretion
Bull Case
$22.00
Re-rate to half peer median (20× P/E) on rate cuts
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
14.5%
Terminal Growth
3%
Projection
5y
Rev CAGR
11%
Intrinsic / Share
$15.20
Margin of Safety
37%
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 28.0× | 5.1× | 16.0× |
| FY22 | 12.4× | 2.9× | 9.2× |
| FY23 | 10.8× | 2.6× | 7.4× |
| FY24 | 10.1× | 2.3× | 6.5× |
| TTM · | 9.5× | 2.1× | 5.8× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| NU | $60.43B | 19.1× | 8.0× | – | +44.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | Q1 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 4,399,416 | 5,087,039 | +15.6% |
| Transaction Revenue | 2,983,146 | 3,416,059 | +14.5% |
| Financial Income | 1,416,270 | 1,670,980 | +18% |
| Cost of Sales | (3,015,476) | (3,476,807) | +15.3% |
| Gross Profit | 1,383,940 | 1,610,232 | +16.4% |
| Selling Expenses | (283,575) | (331,087) | +16.7% |
| Admin Expenses | (316,619) | (363,858) | +14.9% |
| Financial Expenses | (307,089) | (348,706) | +13.5% |
| Income Before Tax | 506,905 | 604,155 | +19.2% |
| Tax Expense | (107,477) | (131,614) | +22.5% |
| Net Income | 399,428 | 472,541 | +18.3% |
| Item | Q1 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | R$ 4.1B | Selic-linked instruments |
| Short-term Investments | R$ 1.2B | Marketable securities |
| Accounts Receivable | R$ 12.5B | Card-issuer settlement float |
| Credit Portfolio (gross) | R$ 2.8B | Loans to merchants |
| Allowance for Losses | (R$ 0.32B) | ECL provision |
| Total Assets | R$ 28.5B | — |
| Client Deposits | R$ 14.8B | PagBank liability |
| Total Debt | R$ 2.5B | Borrowings + financing |
| Total Equity | R$ 6.5B | Book value |
| Net Cash | R$ 2.8B | Cash + STI − Debt ≈ $490M |
| Book Value / Share | R$ 18.57 | ~350M shares outstanding |
Reported FCF (~R$1.1B) is inflated by ~R$770M of customer-deposit inflows (a liability). Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter.
| Component | R$ M | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Core Operating Income (pre-WC) | 491 | Real |
| Less: Capex | (98) | Real |
| Less: Loan Growth (net) | (120) | Real |
| Less: Tax & Interest Paid | (85) | Real |
| Real Core FCF | 188 | Per quarter |
| Customer Deposit Inflows | 520 | Liability — not earnings |
| Payables Increase | 250 | Liability — not earnings |
| Liability-Driven Cash | 770 | Excluded from real FCF |
Source: SEC 6-K (Q1 2025) and company filings. Income in R$ thousands; balance sheet in R$; cash flow in R$ millions. Five-year annual backfill pending. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-04-29 ↗
Catalysts
May–Jun '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q1 2026 earnings + Selic rate decision
Re-rate trigger. Watch take-rate and NPL trend.
Q2–Q3 '26
Macrohigh relevance
Brazil Selic rate-cut cycle
Lower rates lift consumer credit demand and equity multiples.
Aug '26
Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings
Net income trend and take-rate durability in focus.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% dividend withholding tax on nonresidents (Law 15,270/2025) | Regulatory | High | High | Reduces USD-investor net yield; no US–Brazil treaty for full foreign-tax-credit offset. |
| PIX-driven take-rate compression | Competition | Medium | Medium | Structural pressure on transaction economics; stable so far but a multi-year risk. |
| BRL depreciation vs USD | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend. |
| Short interest ~15% | Market/Macro | Low | Medium | Can amplify drawdowns on any negative print. |
| Data-integrity flags caught in research | Key Person | Low | Low | Prior AI-sourced insider/PIX figures were fabricated and removed; only filing-validated data retained. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$8.10$9.14$13.40
RSI (14)
41
neutral
50-Day MA
$9.80
-6.7%below
200-Day MA
$10.60
-13.8%below
Avg Vol (30d)
6.2M
-8%vs average
Support Levels
$8.60$8.10$7.50
Resistance Levels
$9.80$10.60$11.40
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 16.6M | 7.85% | -2.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. | 9.1M | 4.30% | +37.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Artemis Investment Management Llp | 8.5M | 4.02% | +25.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | 7.1M | 3.37% | +20.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polunin Capital Partners Ltd | 5.0M | 2.36% | +12.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 4.9M | 2.30% | +23.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | 4.5M | 2.11% | -3.4% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Net buyer: ~$150–160M repurchased over the last 12 months; share count down 3.7%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company (buyback) | Treasury | Buy | ~12–13M | $12.30–12.80 | LTM | $150–160M |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.48B | 6.2× | 0.1× | 0.3× | +2.0% | 51.0% | 11.0% |
| STNE | $2.67B | 4.0× | 0.2× | 1.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| NU | $60.43B | 19.1× | 8.0× | – | +44.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| DLO | $3.73B | 19.8× | 3.1× | 12.5× | +55.0% | 36.0% | 16.0% |
| PAYO | $2.35B | 35.1× | 2.2× | 10.3× | +6.0% | 85.0% | 7.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
Cash-flow forensic completed
Confirmed reported FCF is deposit-inflated. Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter after capex, net loan growth, tax and interest. Thesis intact on a normalized basis.
2026-05-25SEC EDGAR
Q1 2025 6-K cross-validated
Income statement and balance sheet reconciled against the 6-K. Take rate 3.99%, NPL 90+ 3.0%, provision coverage 210%, net cash R$8.1B.
2026-05-20Internal
Three AI-sourced figures removed
Fabricated insider-buying (UBS +1200%), a PIX-revenue line, and a peer drill result were caught and deleted. Only filing-backed numbers remain.
PagSeguro Digital valuation questions
Is PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, PagSeguro Digital trades below: $9.14 today versus a $14.50 estimate, about +59%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is PagSeguro Digital's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for PAGS is $14.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $7.50, base $14.50, bull $22.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is PagSeguro Digital's forward P/E ratio?
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) trades at a forward P/E of 6.5×, and 2.1× trailing sales.
What is PagSeguro Digital's market cap?
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.16B, and an enterprise value of $1.67B.
What is the bull and bear case for PAGS?
Valuation scenarios: bull $22.00, base $14.50, bear $7.50. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.