CompaniesAFYA
Overview
AFYA
Afya Limited
HealthcareMedical EducationBrazilTake-Private Risk
$14.00+1.4%
Market Cap
$1.22B
SEC 20-F (FY2025)
P/E (TTM)
8.3×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
11.9%
+11.9%SEC filing
Gross Margin
64.3%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
42.1%
calculated
Upside to FV
–
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Brazil's largest medical-education group (Moody's Aaa.br) at 8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA and ~5% yield — but Bertelsmann's 57.5% voting control makes a sub-cost take-private the base case.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 23d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 88/100
Value4/4
Future2/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend3/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Afya is the largest medical-education group in Brazil — a regulated near-monopoly on accredited medical-school seats. FY2025 revenue was R$3.7B (+11.9%) and net income R$768M (+18.4%) at a best-in-class 45.4% EBITDA margin, with a Moody's Aaa.br rating and net debt/EBITDA of just 0.7×. It trades at 8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA and a ~5% dividend yield — the cheapest, highest-quality fundamentals in the batch. The catch: Bertelsmann controls 57.5% of votes via dual-class shares and bought in at $26.90 in 2022, so a take-private (even at $18–20, still below their cost, ~+38% from here) is the base case and Goldman rates it SELL at $15. Phase 1.
Bull Case
Quality / Valuation8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA, ~5% yield, 45.4% EBITDA margin, Moody's Aaa.br — best fundamentals in the batch.
MoatRegulated medical-education near-monopoly; accredited seat supply is constrained by Brazilian regulation.
Take-Private FloorBertelsmann paid $26.90 in 2022; a take-private at even $20 implies ~+38% from current levels.
Bear Case
ControlBertelsmann holds 57.5% of votes via dual-class; minority holders have a lowball take-private risk and weak Cayman-incorporation protections.
Macro / FXBrazil Selic at 14.75% pressures EM equities and the BRL→USD translation of earnings.
Sell-sideGoldman Sachs rates it SELL with a $15 target.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.22B
SEC 20-F (FY2025)
Enterprise Value
$1.50B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$700M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
8.3×
via financials
Forward P/E
6.9×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.9×
via financials
P/B
1.7×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
4.7×
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
11.9%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
64.3%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
25.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
15.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$130M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
42.1%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.6×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
4.8%
exchange
Institutional Own.
19.3%
13F
Insider Own.
74.2%
proxy
Shares Out.
93.0M
SEC filing
Float
30.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$11.00
Base$18.00
Bull$22.00
Now $14.00
Bear Case
$11.00
No deal; BRL weakness and Selic compress the multiple
Base Case
$18.00
Take-private at $18–20 (below Bertelsmann's $26.90 cost)
Bull Case
$22.00
Re-rate toward fundamentals or a fairer take-out price
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$525M
FCF Yield
43.1%
Balance Sheet
$1.87B net debt
Rev CAGR
17%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 3.6× | 0.6× | 3.2× |
| FY23 | 4.8× | 0.6× | 3.6× |
| FY24 | 2.1× | 0.4× | 2.6× |
| FY25 | 1.8× | 0.4× | 2.0× |
| TTM · | 8.8× | 0.3× | 2.1× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFYA | $1.28B | 8.5× | 0.3× | 2.1× | +8.0% | 64.0% | 20.0% |
| ARCO | $1.85B | 8.0× | 0.4× | 6.3× | +13.0% | 12.0% | 5.0% |
| LOPE | $3.79B | 17.9× | 3.4× | 10.3× | +7.0% | 53.0% | 20.0% |
| STRA | $1.68B | 13.1× | 1.3× | 6.6× | +1.0% | 49.0% | 10.0% |
| LAUR | $4.96B | 18.9× | 2.9× | 11.1× | +15.0% | 37.0% | 16.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 2,329 | 2,876 | 3,304 | 3,697 |
| Cost of Revenue | 859.6 | 1,110 | 1,216 | 1,314 |
| Gross Profit | 1,470 | 1,766 | 2,089 | 2,383 |
| Operating Income | 663.9 | 767.1 | 1,012 | 1,213 |
| EBITDA | 923.3 | 1,105 | 1,376 | 1,674 |
| Net Income | 373.6 | 386.3 | 631.5 | 752.5 |
| Diluted EPS | 4.12 | 4.27 | 6.93 | 8.24 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 1,093 | 553.0 | 911.0 | 1,125 |
| Total Assets | 7,200 | 7,584 | 8,830 | 9,358 |
| Total Debt | 2,715 | 2,675 | 3,173 | 3,120 |
| Total Liabilities | 3,949 | 3,941 | 4,519 | 4,467 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 3,199 | 3,602 | 4,270 | 4,852 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 89.9 | 89.9 | 90.3 | 89.9 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 843.9 | 1,044 | 1,433 | 1,532 |
| Capital Expenditure | (297.0) | (245.4) | (392.6) | (364.0) |
| Free Cash Flow | 546.9 | 798.2 | 1,040 | 1,168 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (591.5) | (1,143) | (1,092) | (507.1) |
| Financing Cash Flow | 92.9 | (439.9) | 24.0 | (808.3) |
Figures normalized from Afya Limited's SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-31. BRL millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-31 ↗
Catalysts
2026
M&Ahigh relevance
Potential Bertelsmann take-private
Control holder is below cost basis; a tender at $18–20 is the base case and the key swing event.
Q3 '26
Earnings
Quarterly results
Watch margin durability and the Selic/BRL impact on USD-translated earnings.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowball take-private by Bertelsmann | Key Person | High | High | 57.5% voting control + Cayman incorporation; minority holders could be squeezed below intrinsic value. |
| Selic 14.75% / BRL depreciation | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Pressures EM equity multiples and USD-translated earnings/dividend. |
| Regulatory change to medical-seat supply | Regulatory | Low | Low | The moat depends on Brazil's accreditation regime remaining constrained. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$12.00$14.00$18.00
RSI (14)
47
neutral
50-Day MA
$14.20
-1.4%below
200-Day MA
$15.00
-6.7%below
Avg Vol (30d)
0.4M
-5%vs average
Support Levels
$12.00
Resistance Levels
$18.00$20.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 2.7M | 5.64% | -1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Softbank Group Corporation | 2.4M | 5.08% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Doma Perpetual Capital Management LLC | 2.3M | 4.77% | +9.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| BAMCO Inc. | 1.5M | 3.10% | -12.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Renaissance Technologies, LLC | 379K | 0.79% | -15% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 335K | 0.70% | +32.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 322K | 0.67% | +82.7% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Bertelsmann controls ~57.5% of votes (dual-class) at a ~$26.90 cost basis; public float ~30M shares.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferreira Santos Welder | Officer | Sell | 3K | $15.90 | 2026-04-17 | $53K |
| Carpintero Blanco Luis Andre | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 10K | $15.20 | 2026-04-08 | $152K |
| Junior Lelio De Souza | Officer | Sell | 27K | $14.95 | 2026-04-07 | $400K |
| Gibbon Virglio Deloy Capobianco | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 22K | $14.94 | 2026-04-06 | $324K |
| Gibbon Virglio Deloy Capobianco | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 22K | $14.98 | 2026-04-01 | $327K |
| Gibbon Virglio Deloy Capobianco | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 2K | $15.00 | 2026-03-30 | $27K |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFYA | $1.28B | 8.5× | 0.3× | 2.1× | +8.0% | 64.0% | 20.0% |
| ARCO | $1.85B | 8.0× | 0.4× | 6.3× | +13.0% | 12.0% | 5.0% |
| LOPE | $3.79B | 17.9× | 3.4× | 10.3× | +7.0% | 53.0% | 20.0% |
| STRA | $1.68B | 13.1× | 1.3× | 6.6× | +1.0% | 49.0% | 10.0% |
| LAUR | $4.96B | 18.9× | 2.9× | 11.1× | +15.0% | 37.0% | 16.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
Take-private setup
Best fundamentals in the batch (8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA, 45.4% EBITDA margin, Aaa.br) but Bertelsmann's 57.5% voting control and sub-cost basis make a lowball take-private the base case. Goldman SELL at $15.