Grab Holdings (GRAB) valuation at a glance
Grab Holdings (GRAB) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $3.90 versus a $5.50 estimate, that is a 41% upside.
- Price
- $3.90
- Fair value estimate
- $5.50
- Upside
- +41%
- Forward P/E
- 28.4×
- Market cap
- $15.93B
- P/S (TTM)
- 4.5×
CompaniesGRAB
Overview
GRAB
Grab Holdings
TechnologySuper-AppMobilityFintechASEAN
$3.90+3.4%
Market Cap
$15.93B
SEC 20-F (FY2025) + Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked via yfinance
P/E (TTM)
41.9×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
20.0%
+20%SEC filing
Gross Margin
43.5%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
-1.0%
calculated
Upside to FV
+41.0%
vs fair value
Conviction
3/5Grab is the dominant Southeast Asia super-app, GAAP-profitable for its first full year in FY2025 ($200M, after a $158M loss in 2024). It carries about $4.3B of net cash on a $15.9B cap and grew revenue 20% to $3.37B. But it isn't cheap at 42x earnings and 4.5x sales, free cash flow is still negative once lending is counted, and most of the profit is finance income. The real overhang is governance. A 90:1 super-vote hands founder Anthony Tan roughly 75% of the votes on a 3.2% economic stake, with no time-based sunset. Think of it as a quality-growth bet on the ASEAN digital economy, not a value one.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 27d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 49/100
Value1/5
Future3/3
Past3/4
Health2/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Grab is the dominant consumer platform across Southeast Asia, and FY2025 was its first full year of GAAP net profit ($200M, after a $158M loss in 2024). It holds about $4.3B of net cash against a $15.9B market cap, and on its own broader definition Grab reports $5.0B of net cash liquidity. Revenue grew 20% to $3.37B and adjusted EBITDA reached $500M. The catch is that this isn't a cheap stock. It trades at 42x trailing earnings, 28x forward and 4.5x sales, free cash flow is still negative once the lending book and deposits are counted, and most of the reported profit is finance and fair-value income rather than operations. The defining risk is governance, not the business. A 90:1 super-voting structure, doubled from 45:1 at the March 2026 EGM, gives founder Anthony Tan roughly 75% of the votes on a 3.2% economic stake, with only an event-based sunset. For a long-term holder this is a quality-growth bet on the ASEAN digital economy, backed by a fortress balance sheet, where the upside depends on the region compounding and the discount comes from valuation and control.
Bull Case
Balance SheetAbout $4.3B of net cash, which Grab reports as $5.0B of net cash liquidity on its own definition, sits under a $3.90 stock. That's roughly a quarter of the market cap as a floor.
Profit TurnFY2025 was the first full-year GAAP profit ($200M) after a $158M loss in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA reached $500M and adjusted free cash flow $290M.
GrowthRevenue grew 20% to $3.37B in FY2025. Q1 2026 revenue was $955M, with Mobility $337M (+19%) and Deliveries $510M (+23%). Monthly transacting users reached 51.6M.
Vietnam MoatVietnam shows the super-app advantage. A subsidized EV taxi rival took the four-wheel trip-share lead, yet Grab still leads app usage at about 55% (Rakuten Insight), co-leads food delivery at about 48% of GMV, dominates motorbike rides, and is the default app for expats and tourists. Vietnam revenue grew to $255M in 2025.
TAMThe ASEAN digital economy is on track past $300B in GMV and growing around 15% a year (Google/Temasek/Bain), with Grab the regional leader in mobility and deliveries.
Sentiment26 analysts rate it Strong Buy with no Sells, mean target $5.95 (about +53%). The stock trades well below its $17 post-listing peak.
Bear Case
GovernanceThe 90:1 super-vote, doubled from 45:1 in March 2026, is the most extreme among large listed companies. Founder Anthony Tan controls about 75% of the votes on a 3.2% economic stake, with no time-based sunset. Public holders have no recourse.
ValuationAt 42x trailing earnings, 28x forward and 4.5x sales, the stock already prices in years of growth. Most of the GAAP profit is finance and fair-value income, not operations. Q1 2026 operating profit was only $22M of a $120M net profit.
Cash FlowOperating cash flow fell from $852M to $79M as the lending book consumes cash, so GAAP free cash flow is negative. Grab's adjusted FCF of $290M strips out the lending and deposit swings.
RegulatoryIndonesia, about 21% of revenue, capped ride-hailing commissions at 8% from July 1 2026 (Presidential Reg 27/2026), starting with two-wheelers. Maybank sees 3% to 10% of EBITDA at risk if it extends to cars.
CompetitionGrab lost the four-wheel taxi trip-share lead in Vietnam to Vingroup's heavily subsidized Xanh SM, about 51% to 43% by GMV in Q4 2025, though it still leads app usage and food delivery there. Revenue per user is about $69 a year against roughly $280 for Uber, a wide monetization gap.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$15.93B
SEC 20-F (FY2025) + Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked via yfinance
Enterprise Value
$11.62B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$3.55B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
41.9×
via financials
Forward P/E
28.4×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
4.5×
via financials
P/B
2.4×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
24.8×
calculated
PEG
0.9×
calculated
Revenue Growth
20.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
43.5%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
7.8%
SEC filing
Net Margin
10.7%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$-163M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
-1.0%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.3×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.7×
SEC filing
Short Interest
7.0%
exchange
Institutional Own.
67.0%
13F
Insider Own.
3.2%
proxy
Shares Out.
3.96B
SEC filing
Float
2.66B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$2.60
Base$5.50
Bull$7.50
Now $3.90
Bear Case
$2.60
Indonesia cap extends to four-wheel, growth slows, and the multiple compresses on the governance discount.
Base Case
$5.50
Sum of the parts across mobility, deliveries and fintech plus net cash. Near the analyst mean of $5.95.
Bull Case
$7.50
Fintech inflects, adjusted FCF scales, and ASEAN growth holds. Upper band of the sum-of-parts.
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
12%
Terminal Growth
3%
Projection
7y
Rev CAGR
16%
Intrinsic / Share
$5.60
Margin of Safety
29%
A reverse DCF implies only low-single-digit FCF growth is priced in, but that relies on adjusted FCF, which excludes the lending cash drag.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | – | 6.8× | – |
| FY24 | – | 5.2× | 47.0× |
| FY25 | 88.0× | 4.6 × | 22.0× |
| TTM · | 41.9× | 4.5× | 24.8× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAB | $14.15B | 86.5× | 4.0× | 30.5× | +24.0% | 40.0% | 11.0% |
| SE | $53.08B | 34.1× | 2.1× | 18.4× | +47.0% | 44.0% | 6.0% |
| UBER | $148.29B | 18.1× | 2.8× | 22.2× | +14.0% | 40.0% | 16.0% |
| LYFT | $5.41B | 2.0× | 0.8× | – | +14.0% | 36.0% | 44.0% |
| DASH | $73.24B | 79.3× | 5.0× | 52.6× | +33.0% | 52.0% | 6.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Financials
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | Q1 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.80B | $3.37B | $955M | +20% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $313M | $500M | $154M | +60% |
| Net Income (GAAP) FY2025 is the first full-year profit; Q1 2026 is mostly finance income ($22M operating) | ($158M) | $200M | $120M | n/a |
| SBC Expense | $279M | $250M | $78M | n/a |
| Item | Q1 2026 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Net Cash Liquidity | $5.0B | Grab's definition; about $4.3B on a stricter cash plus investments minus debt basis |
| Gross Loan Portfolio | $1,438M | +130% YoY; cash-consuming |
| Bank Deposits | $1,630M | Digital-bank customer deposits |
| Accumulated Deficit | ($17.3B) | As of Q1 2026 |
| Convertible Notes (2030) | $1.5B | Zero-coupon, issued Jun 2025 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.96B | Class A plus Class B |
Operating cash flow fell 91% as the lending book consumes cash, so GAAP free cash flow is negative. Adjusted FCF strips out lending and deposit swings.
| Component | FY2024 | FY2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $852M | $79M | Down 91% as lending consumes cash |
| Adj. Free Cash Flow | $162M | $290M | Excludes lending and deposit swings |
| SBC Expense | $279M | $250M | Non-cash addback |
| Net Income (GAAP) | ($158M) | $200M | Loss to first full-year profit |
Figures from Grab's SEC 20-F (FY2025) and the Q1 2026 6-K, cross-checked against yfinance. USD. FY2024 was a net loss; FY2025 was Grab's first full year of GAAP net profit. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-06 ↗
Catalysts
Jul 1 '26
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Indonesia 8% commission cap in effect
Presidential Reg 27/2026, effective July 1 2026, starting with two-wheelers. Watch for extension to four-wheel, where Maybank sees up to 10% of EBITDA at risk.
Q2 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026 results
First quarter under the Indonesia cap. Watch operating profit quality, adjusted FCF and the lending cash drain.
2027
Product
Digital banking scale-up
Superbank and GXS deposits and lending expand the fintech monetization, at the cost of near-term cash.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90:1 super-voting structure | Key Person | Critical | High | Founder Anthony Tan controls about 75% of the votes on a 3.2% economic stake. The CEO cannot be removed and activists have no way to force change. No time-based sunset. |
| Full valuation with negative GAAP free cash flow | Valuation | High | Medium | 42x earnings and 4.5x sales price in years of growth, while GAAP free cash flow is negative and most profit is finance income. |
| Indonesia 8% commission cap | Regulatory | High | High | About 21% of revenue is exposed. Maybank sees 3% to 10% of EBITDA at risk if the two-wheeler cap extends to cars. |
| Institutional overhang | Dilution/Capital | Medium | Medium | SoftBank and Uber hold unlocked stakes and there are $1.5B of convertible notes due 2030. Tiger Global already exited. |
| Competition and weak switching costs | Competition | High | Medium | A subsidized EV rival, Xanh SM, took the four-wheel taxi trip-share lead in Vietnam over 2024 and 2025. Switching costs are low across mobility and delivery, so a well-funded competitor can take share fast. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$3.18$3.90$6.62
RSI (14)
79
overbought
50-Day MA
$3.61
+8.0%above
200-Day MA
$4.58
-14.8%below
Avg Vol (30d)
53M
+8%vs average
Support Levels
$3.61$3.27$3.18
Resistance Levels
$4.58$5.00$6.62
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies | ~536M | 13.5% | flat | FY2025 20-F |
| SoftBank (SB Investment) | ~402M | 10.1% | flat | FY2025 20-F |
| Toyota Motor | ~215M | 5.4% | flat | FY2025 20-F |
| Tiger Global | 0 | 0% | -100% | Exited Q1 2026 |
Insider Activity
Founder Anthony Tan holds 3.2% of the economics but about 75% of the votes through Class B shares at 90:1. Uber (13.5%), SoftBank (10.1%) and Toyota (5.4%) are the largest outside holders per the FY2025 20-F. Tiger Global exited fully in Q1 2026, and Morgan Stanley's stake fell below 5% (now about 3.4%).
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Tan | CEO / Co-founder | Hold | 3.2% econ | n/a | FY2025 20-F | ~75% of votes |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAB | $14.15B | 86.5× | 4.0× | 30.5× | +24.0% | 40.0% | 11.0% |
| SE | $53.08B | 34.1× | 2.1× | 18.4× | +47.0% | 44.0% | 6.0% |
| UBER | $148.29B | 18.1× | 2.8× | 22.2× | +14.0% | 40.0% | 16.0% |
| LYFT | $5.41B | 2.0× | 0.8× | – | +14.0% | 36.0% | 44.0% |
| DASH | $73.24B | 79.3× | 5.0× | 52.6× | +33.0% | 52.0% | 6.0% |
| MELI | $83.47B | 43.5× | 2.6× | 22.9× | +49.0% | 49.0% | 6.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-07-02Vietnam field read + 6-agent intel
Vietnam, the super-app lead survives the taxi price war
Reports that Grab lost Vietnam are about one metric. Vingroup's heavily subsidized EV taxi, Xanh SM, took the four-wheel trip-share lead by GMV, roughly 51% to Grab's 43% in Q4 2025 (Mordor Intelligence), after lifting its capital base above $1.6B. That's a capital-driven land grab, not organic. On the metrics that reflect daily use, Grab still leads. It's the most-used ride app at about 55% versus 32% for Xanh SM (Rakuten Insight, May 2025, 7,436 respondents), it dominates motorbike rides, and GrabFood co-leads food delivery, tied near 48% of GMV with ShopeeFood (Momentum Works). Grab is also the default for foreigners, with full English, foreign-card payment and airport pickup, where Xanh SM and Be need a Vietnamese number and local cards. Vietnam revenue grew to $255M in 2025, a third straight year of growth, though at about 7.6% of company revenue it is Grab's 6th-largest market, not the core.
2026-07-01Internal (8-agent validation sprint)
Sprint validation, corrections from primary filings
Every figure re-checked against Grab's SEC filings. Corrections: FY2024 was a net LOSS of $158M, not a $19M profit (FY2025's $200M is the first full-year profit). Removed a Sea Money loan-book figure of about $9.2B, a hallucination that conflated Sea Limited's product with Grab. Grab's own group gross loan portfolio is $1.44B. Founder economics corrected to 3.2% (from 3.7%) per the FY2025 20-F. Indonesia cap effective July 1 2026, not June 1. Morgan Stanley's stake is stale at about 3.4%, so the table now shows Toyota at 5.4%. Analyst mean target refreshed to $5.95.
2026-07-01Grab Q1 2026 6-K
Net cash, two ways to count it
yfinance computes about $4.3B of net cash (cash plus short-term investments minus debt). Grab reports $5.0B of net cash liquidity on its own definition (gross cash of about $6.9B less loans and borrowings). Both are real; the difference is definitional. Either way, the balance sheet is a genuine floor at roughly a quarter of the market cap.
2026-03-24Grab EGM 6-K
EGM doubles the voting ratio to 90:1
Shareholders voted 85.9% for and 14.1% against at the March 24 2026 EGM, raising Class B votes from 45 to 90 each. Grab justified it by the Monetary Authority of Singapore requirement for Singaporean control of GXS Bank. There is no time-based sunset, so the founder keeps roughly 75% of the votes.
Grab Holdings valuation questions
Is Grab Holdings (GRAB) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Grab Holdings trades below: $3.90 today versus a $5.50 estimate, about +41%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Grab Holdings's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for GRAB is $5.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $2.60, base $5.50, bull $7.50. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Grab Holdings's forward P/E ratio?
Grab Holdings (GRAB) trades at a forward P/E of 28.4×, and 4.5× trailing sales.
What is Grab Holdings's market cap?
Grab Holdings (GRAB) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $15.93B, and an enterprise value of $11.62B.
What is the bull and bear case for GRAB?
Valuation scenarios: bull $7.50, base $5.50, bear $2.60. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.