Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) valuation at a glance
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $21.68 versus a $25.50 estimate, that is a 18% upside.
- Price
- $21.68
- Fair value estimate
- $25.50
- Upside
- +18%
- Forward P/E
- 10.8×
- Market cap
- $1.81B
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.3×
CompaniesPGY
Overview
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
TechnologyAI Credit NetworkABS FundingRisk RetentionDual ClassRelated Party RevenueHigh Short Interest
$21.68+7.1%
Market Cap
$1.81B
SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026 (filed 30 Jul 2026), Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (filed 2 Mar 2026), the second-quarter and fourth-quarter earnings releases filed as Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, and the fiscal 2024 Form 10-K for the 2023 comparatives. Cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Israeli-incorporated, New York headquartered, and a US domestic filer: it files 10-K and 10-Q, not 20-F.
P/E (TTM)
14.3×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
20.6%
+20.6%SEC filing
Gross Margin
40.6%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
13.9%
calculated
Upside to FV
+17.6%
vs fair value
Conviction
3/5Pagaya underwrites consumer loans for banks and lenders it does not own, then places the paper with investors and keeps a slice of the credit risk itself. On 30 July 2026 it reported record everything: network volume of $3,535M, operating income of $105.8M and its fifth consecutive quarter of GAAP profit. Two figures the screen reports are nonetheless wrong. The data feed strikes market capitalisation on 72,137,266 shares, which is the Class A count alone against 83,425,843 in issue, and it maps the $1,040.1M retained credit book to short-term investments, which turns $625.7M of net debt into $382.0M of net cash and takes 41% off enterprise value. Correct both and the multiple is 5.76 times adjusted EBITDA, not 3.9. The deeper point is the cash. Operating cash flow less capital expenditure is $251.8M over the last twelve months, a 13.9% yield. Funding the retained interests the model requires consumed $266.1M over the same period, so free cash flow was minus $14.3M.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 1d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 67/100
Value5/5
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health1/3
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Pagaya is not a lender and not a marketplace, and the distinction decides the valuation. Banks, credit unions, car dealers and point-of-sale providers send it applications they have already declined or cannot price. Pagaya's models underwrite those applications, and where it says yes the loan is originated by the partner and then sold into a financing vehicle Pagaya sponsors. Investors in that vehicle take the credit. Pagaya takes a fee. That fee, less the cost of acquiring the asset, is the number management runs the company on: revenue from fees less production costs, or FRLPC. In the second quarter of 2026 it was $146.9M on network volume of $3,535M, a take rate of 4.2%. The reported results were genuinely strong. Total revenue and other income rose 18.6% to $387.0M, operating income rose 87.4% to $105.8M against costs that grew 4.2%, and net income attributable to shareholders reached $45.3M against $16.7M a year earlier. Every guided line was beaten and full-year net income guidance was raised. Core operating expenses fell to 31% of FRLPC from 39%. That is real operating leverage, and it is why the shares have more than doubled from a 52-week closing low of $10.64. Now the part the screen misses. Pagaya does not place all the risk. It retains a slice of every securitisation, and at 30 June those retained interests were carried at $1,040.1M against an amortised cost of $1,257.8M, a $217.7M shortfall struck through a credit allowance of $313.7M. The securitisation certificates, which are the residual pieces, are carried at $477.0M against $771.6M of cost. This is disclosed, it is deliberate, and the 10-K names it: the company warns that material fair value losses on risk retention assets could prevent it from generating GAAP net income. The accounting consequence is that the cost of the business model sits below the operating line. Operating income was $105.8M in the quarter; losses on investments in loans and securities took $42.3M and other expenses another $23.0M, so income before tax was $41.2M. Adjusted net income of $101.0M is struck after excluding $38.0M of that impairment. Since January 2024 the impairments excluded from adjusted earnings total $567.2M, which is 111% of the adjusted net income reported over the same period. The cash statement makes the same point without any judgement call. Operating cash flow less capital expenditure was $251.8M over the trailing twelve months. Purchases of investments in loans and securities were $854.1M and proceeds from maturities and sales $588.0M, a net $266.1M put into the retained book, and that outflow sits in investing rather than operating. Free cash flow after it is minus $14.3M. The same measure was minus $55.2M in fiscal 2025 and minus $417.4M in fiscal 2024, so the direction is strongly right and the level is not yet positive. What the buyer is underwriting, then, is not a 13.9% cash yield. It is the proposition that FRLPC keeps compounding faster than the retained book has to grow, and that the credit on that book behaves. Guidance for 2026 is adjusted EBITDA of $460M to $490M against $422.8M trailing, so management is guiding to roughly 12% growth on a business the market is paying 5.76 times for. That is not expensive. It is priced for a company whose earnings quality is genuinely contested, and on this evidence the contest is fair.
Bull Case
Bear Case
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.81B
SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026 (filed 30 Jul 2026), Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (filed 2 Mar 2026), the second-quarter and fourth-quarter earnings releases filed as Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, and the fiscal 2024 Form 10-K for the 2023 comparatives. Cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Israeli-incorporated, New York headquartered, and a US domestic filer: it files 10-K and 10-Q, not 20-F.
Enterprise Value
$2.43B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$1.39B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
14.3×
via financials
Forward P/E
10.8×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.3×
via financials
P/B
3.0×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.8×
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
20.6%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
40.6%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
24.9%
SEC filing
Net Margin
9.1%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$252M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
13.9%
calculated
Debt / Equity
1.5×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
–
SEC filing
Short Interest
17.5%
exchange
Institutional Own.
47.4%
13F
Insider Own.
9.1%
proxy
Shares Out.
83.4M
SEC filing
Float
70.5M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$16.20
Base$25.50
Bull$33.60
Now $21.68
Bear Case
$16.20
The take rate keeps compressing, growth in the retained book outruns FRLPC, and adjusted EBITDA lands at $440M against guidance of $460M to $490M. The market pays 4.5 times, below anything this business has traded at since 2024, on the view that adjusted EBITDA struck before a recurring impairment is not the right denominator. Enterprise value $1,980M less net debt of $625.7M over 83.4 million shares.
Base Case
$25.50
Guidance holds and adjusted EBITDA lands at the $475M midpoint of $460M to $490M. The market pays 5.8 times, which is what it pays today and the middle of the 5.4 to 6.2 range struck at the last two year ends. Enterprise value $2,755M less net debt of $625.7M over 83.4 million shares. This sits 12.7% below the mean analyst target of $29.20.
Bull Case
$33.60
The auto vertical carries volume to the top of the $12.5B to $13.25B range, the credit allowance keeps releasing, adjusted EBITDA reaches $490M, and free cash flow after funding the retained book turns positive. On that evidence the market pays 7.0 times, a re-rating rather than a re-forecast. Enterprise value $3,430M less net debt of $625.7M over 83.4 million shares.
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | – | 1.3× | – |
| FY24 | – | 0.7× | 5.4× |
| FY25 | 21.1× | 1.3× | 6.2× |
| TTM · | 14.3× | 1.3× | 5.8× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | $1.81B | 14.3× | 1.3× | 5.8× | +20.6% | 40.6% | 9.1% |
| UPST | $2.95B | 55.1× | 2.3× | 39.5× | +42.3% | 83.0% | 4.7% |
| ENVA | $6.05B | 17.6× | 3.6× | – | +31.1% | 83.3% | 21.0% |
| OPRT | $0.34B | 18.3× | 0.5× | – | +9.4% | 95.2% | 2.6% |
| TREE | $0.43B | 2.4× | 0.3× | 6.4× | +25.3% | 96.4% | 14.3% |
Financials
| Line Item | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from fees Includes $231.4M from related-party ABS trusts and investment funds, 63.3% of the total | $317.7M | $365.6M | +15.1% |
| Interest income Earned on the retained interests, which is why it grows with the book rather than with volume | $10.7M | $22.2M | +106.8% |
| Total Revenue and Other Income | $326.4M | $387.0M | +18.6% |
| Production costs The cost of acquiring the asset, deducted before the company's own FRLPC measure | $191.5M | $218.7M | +14.2% |
| Revenue from fees less production costs 4.2% of network volume, down from 4.8%. Volume grew 33.5% and this grew 16.4% | $126.2M | $146.9M | +16.4% |
| Total Costs and Operating Expenses Costs grew a quarter as fast as revenue. Share-based compensation fell to $8.6M from $18.2M | $269.9M | $281.2M | +4.2% |
| Operating Income Struck before any loss on the retained credit book | $56.5M | $105.8M | +87.4% |
| Losses on investments in loans and securities The cost of the risk retention, booked below the operating line | -$14.3M | -$42.3M | n/m |
| Other expenses, net Interest expense of $19.7M sits inside this line | -$20.2M | -$23.0M | n/m |
| Income Before Income Taxes | $21.5M | $41.2M | +91.5% |
| Net Income Attributable to Pagaya Basic EPS $0.53, diluted $0.49 on 97,247,579 diluted shares | $16.7M | $45.3M | +171.8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) Excludes $38.0M of impairment on the retained investments, which recurs every quarter | $86.3M | $123.5M | +43.2% |
| Network volume Against an outlook of $2,875M to $3,075M | $2,648M | $3,535M | +33.5% |
| Line Item | Dec 31 2025 | Jun 30 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents Restricted cash of $55.2M sits outside this line and outside net debt | $235.3M | $249.3M | +5.9% |
| Investments in loans and securities, at fair value Amortised cost $1,257.8M less a $313.7M credit allowance. Not cash, and not netted against debt here | $945.3M | $1,040.1M | +10% |
| Fee receivables Growing faster than fee revenue, so collection timing is worth watching | $153.3M | $190.5M | +24.3% |
| Total Assets | $1,545.9M | $1,693.1M | +9.5% |
| Secured borrowing The facility that funds the retained interests | $193.9M | $253.0M | +30.5% |
| Exchangeable notes The reason diluted shares are 16.6% above the outstanding count | $148.8M | $150.1M | +0.9% |
| Long-term debt | $481.6M | $471.9M | -2% |
| Total borrowings Net debt $625.7M. Operating lease liabilities of $32.4M are outside this figure | $824.3M | $874.9M | +6.1% |
| Total Liabilities | $960.5M | $1,014.2M | +5.6% |
| Pagaya shareholders' equity Book value is 32.8% of market capitalisation. Accumulated deficit still $792.7M | $480.0M | $594.2M | +23.8% |
| Noncontrolling interests Distributions of $18.2M were made to these holders in the half | $75.3M | $54.6M | -27.5% |
| Line Item | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow Struck after adding back $80.3M of losses on the retained investments | $91.8M | $117.9M | +28.4% |
| Purchases of property, equipment and software The business owns very little, so conventional free cash flow is close to operating cash flow | $7.6M | $6.6M | -12.5% |
| Purchases of investments in loans and securities The retained interests. In investing, not operating, and not optional | $274.1M | $496.0M | +80.9% |
| Proceeds from maturity and prepayment The book is now returning cash at scale, which is what has to continue | $98.0M | $345.7M | +252.9% |
| Net investment in the retained book Purchases less proceeds from maturities and sales | $144.8M | $130.9M | -9.6% |
| Free cash flow, conventional Operating cash flow less capital expenditure. This is the figure screeners report | $84.2M | $111.3M | +32.1% |
| Free cash flow after funding retention Trailing twelve months minus $14.3M. Fiscal 2025 minus $55.2M, fiscal 2024 minus $417.4M | -$60.6M | -$19.7M | n/m |
Pagaya figures come from the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, filed 30 July 2026, and the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025, filed 2 March 2026. Network volume, FRLPC and adjusted EBITDA are the company's own measures, taken from the reconciliation tables in the second-quarter earnings release. The subject row of the peer table is recomputed from filings on the enterprise value basis stated above; the peer rows are as the market data feed reports them, which for this comparison is conservative, because the recomputed enterprise value used for Pagaya is higher than the feed's, not lower. The gross margin shown for Pagaya is fee revenue less production costs over fee revenue, and it is far below the peer set because acquiring the asset is inside Pagaya's cost of revenue and outside a lead generator's. Source: SEC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 ↗
Catalysts
Jul 30 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Every guided line beaten and full-year net income guidance raised
Second-quarter net income of $45M came against an outlook of $25M to $45M, network volume of $3,535M against $2,875M to $3,075M, revenue of $387M against $345M to $365M and adjusted EBITDA of $124M against $100M to $115M. Full-year GAAP net income guidance was raised to $155M to $180M. Operating income rose 87.4% on costs that grew 4.2%.
Q3 '26
Guidancehigh relevance
The third quarter, where the take rate either stabilises or does not
Guidance is network volume of $3,425M to $3,625M, total revenue and other income of $370M to $390M, adjusted EBITDA of $120M to $130M and GAAP net income of $42M to $52M. The number that matters is not in the guidance: FRLPC as a percentage of network volume fell 61 basis points year over year to 4.2%, and the company attributed part of that to tighter ABS pricing. Whether that stops is the quarter's real test.
FY '26
Guidancehigh relevance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $460M to $490M against $422.8M trailing
Full-year guidance is network volume of $12.5B to $13.25B, total revenue and other income of $1.425B to $1.525B, adjusted EBITDA of $460M to $490M and GAAP net income of $155M to $180M. The midpoint of the adjusted EBITDA range is 12.3% above the trailing twelve-month figure, and the base case on this page applies the multiple the market pays today to that midpoint.
Jul '26
Credit
Fitch moved the outlook to Positive and the fee facility was upsized
The company disclosed a revised corporate rating outlook to Positive from Fitch, attributed to improvement in profitability, leverage and interest coverage. Separately, the loan and security agreement secured on accrued loan purchasing fee receivables had its maximum borrowing capacity raised to $100M from $65M in July 2026, at a spread of 1.90% over a 1.00% floor. Cheaper and larger funding is the direct lever on the ABS pricing that has been compressing the take rate.
Aug 17 '26
Governance
The annual meeting approved a bonus framework for the management directors
All ten director nominees were elected, the auditor was re-appointed, and shareholders approved on a special majority both a 2026 bonus calculation framework for the management directors and a ratification of prior compensation actions for them. Roughly 153.0 million votes were cast against 83.4 million shares in issue, which is the ten-vote Class B structure at work. Say-on-pay drew 2.8 million votes against, the largest opposition on any item.
2026-27
Balance Sheet
Whether the retained book starts returning more than it absorbs
Proceeds from maturity and prepayment of the retained investments rose to $345.7M in the first half of 2026 from $98.0M a year earlier, while purchases rose to $496.0M from $274.1M. The net outflow narrowed to $130.9M from $144.8M. The moment those two lines cross is the moment free cash flow after funding retention turns positive, and it is the single cleanest disclosure to watch on this company.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow after funding the retained interests was minus $14.3M over the trailing twelve months, against the $251.8M that operating cash flow less capital expenditure reports. The company put $854.1M into investments in loans and securities and took $588.0M back out. | Cash Generation | High | Certain | The central risk on this page and not a matter of interpretation, because all three figures are filed. The retention is what makes the securitisations sellable, so the outflow is not discretionary. The trend is strongly favourable, from minus $417.4M in fiscal 2024 to minus $55.2M in fiscal 2025 to minus $14.3M now, but a 13.9% free cash flow yield is not what an owner is buying. |
| Revenue from fees less production costs fell to 4.2% of network volume in the second quarter from 4.8% a year earlier. The company attributed the 61 basis point contraction to asset class mix, new partner and product contributions, and tighter pricing on its ABS transactions reflecting a higher cost of capital. | Pricing Power | High | Likely | Network volume grew 33.5% and the fee margin on it grew 16.4%, so roughly half the volume growth was returned in price. If the compression continues at this rate the operating leverage that is currently driving the earnings recovery is consumed by it within a few quarters. ABS pricing is set by the credit market, not by the company. |
| Impairment loss on certain investments is excluded from adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA in every period the company reports. It was $394.5M in fiscal 2024, $98.3M in fiscal 2025 and $74.3M in the first half of 2026, a total of $567.2M against cumulative adjusted net income of $510.7M over the same span. | Earnings Quality | High | Certain | An add-back that appears every quarter and exceeds the profit it is added back to is the cost of the business model rather than an exceptional item. Every multiple struck against adjusted EBITDA on this page, including the base case, is therefore struck against a figure from which a recurring economic cost has been removed. The company's own 10-K warns that material fair value losses on risk retention assets could prevent it from generating GAAP net income. |
| Related-party revenue from ABS securitisation trusts and investment funds was $231.4M in the second quarter, 63.3% of fee revenue, and $652.7M or 51.7% of fee revenue in fiscal 2025. Separately, the two largest customers, including two related parties, were 29% of quarterly revenue. | Revenue Quality | High | Certain | The fees are earned from vehicles the company sponsors and whose paper it also holds, so the same relationship generates the revenue, the retained asset and the impairment. That is a legitimate structure and it is disclosed, but the related-party share has risen from about half to nearly two thirds, and an outside reader cannot separate arms-length pricing from sponsor pricing inside it. |
| Maximum exposure to loss on unconsolidated variable interest entities was $972.8M at 30 June against $847.3M at 31 December, and the assets of those entities were $13,383.1M. | Off Balance Sheet | medium | Certain | The disclosed exposure is 1.6 times Pagaya's own shareholders' equity of $594.2M and it grew 14.8% in six months, faster than the equity that supports it. The exposure is 7.3% of the $13.4B of assets in those vehicles, which is the shape you would expect from a retention slice, but the reader should size the risk against the balance sheet rather than against the vehicles. |
| Class B ordinary shares carry ten votes each against one for Class A. The 11,288,577 Class B shares are 13.5% of the equity and 61.0% of the voting power, and the holders are the management directors. | Governance | medium | Certain | Outside holders of 86.5% of the equity control 39.0% of the vote. At the 17 August 2026 annual meeting the items requiring a special majority were the bonus framework and the ratification of prior compensation for those same management directors. Nothing here is irregular for a founder-controlled company, and nothing here is subject to an outside shareholder vote either. |
| The market data feed reports 72,137,266 shares outstanding, which is the Class A count alone, and maps the $1,040.1M retained credit book to short-term investments, which nets it against borrowings. | Data Integrity | medium | Certain | The second error is the larger one. Netting the retained book turns $625.7M of net debt into $382.0M of net cash and takes 41% off enterprise value, which moves the multiple from 5.76 times adjusted EBITDA to under 4 times. A screen run on the feed's figures ranks this company far higher than the filings justify. Every figure on this page is recomputed from the balance sheet; the share count is both classes, and the retained book is not treated as cash. |
| The balance sheet is presented unclassified, with no split between current and non-current assets and liabilities, so a current ratio cannot be computed from it. | Data Integrity | Low | Certain | The feed reports a current ratio above eleven for this company, which comes from treating the whole retained book as a current asset. No current ratio is published on this page, because the filed balance sheet does not support one. Liquidity here is better judged from the $249.3M of unrestricted cash, the $55.2M restricted, and the maturity profile of the retained interests. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$10.40$21.68$44.99
RSI (14)
61.6
neutral
50-Day MA
$18.17
+19.3%above
200-Day MA
$17.44
+24.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
2.85M
+111%vs average
Support Levels
$18.17$17.44$15.43
Resistance Levels
$24.00$29.20$43.81
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Both share classes together total 83,425,843 shares and the float is reported at 70.5 million, so roughly 84.5% of the equity trades. Institutions hold about 47.4% and insiders about 9.1%, but the equity figure understates control: the Class B shares carry ten votes each and are 61.0% of the vote on 13.5% of the shares. Short interest is 17.5% of the float. The recent open-market Form 4 record shows two purchases against ten sales; the buy that matters is Gal Krubiner, chief executive and co-founder, taking 16,200 shares at $15.43 on 24 June 2026, with directors and the president selling into the recovery at $15.20 to $22.00. Grants, vests and share-class conversions are excluded from that count, so only unambiguous open-market trades are shown.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosen Tami | Director | Sell | 28.2K | $21.98 | 2026-08-03 | $619.4K |
| Das Sanjiv | President | Sell | 21.3K | $22.00 | 2026-08-03 | $468.4K |
| Vieira Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Sell | 1.5K | $15.83 | 2026-06-25 | $23.1K |
| Das Sanjiv | President | Sell | 14K | $15.83 | 2026-06-25 | $221.6K |
| Krubiner Gal | Chief Executive Officer | Buy | 16.2K | $15.43 | 2026-06-24 | $250.5K |
| Rosen Tami | Director | Sell | 9.9K | $15.20 | 2026-06-22 | $151.1K |
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | $1.81B | 14.3× | 1.3× | 5.8× | +20.6% | 40.6% | 9.1% |
| UPST | $2.95B | 55.1× | 2.3× | 39.5× | +42.3% | 83.0% | 4.7% |
| ENVA | $6.05B | 17.6× | 3.6× | – | +31.1% | 83.3% | 21.0% |
| OPRT | $0.34B | 18.3× | 0.5× | – | +9.4% | 95.2% | 2.6% |
| TREE | $0.43B | 2.4× | 0.3× | 6.4× | +25.3% | 96.4% | 14.3% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-08-22Verified against SEC XBRL company facts and the filed balance sheet
Why the enterprise value and the share count on this page differ from the data feed
Two corrections were needed before anything else on this page could be computed. First, the feed reports 72,137,266 shares outstanding. That is the Class A count from the 10-Q cover page; the same cover page reports 11,288,577 Class B shares, and the total in issue at 29 July 2026 is 83,425,843. Market capitalisation on the Class A count alone is 13.5% light. Second, and larger, the feed maps the $1,040.1M of investments in loans and securities to short-term investments and nets them against borrowings. Those investments are the retained slices of the company's own securitisations, carried at fair value $217.7M below amortised cost after a $313.7M credit allowance. Treating them as cash turns $625.7M of net debt into $382.0M of net cash and understates enterprise value by 41%, moving the multiple from 5.76 times adjusted EBITDA to under 4 times. The figure used throughout this page, $2,434.3M, is market capitalisation of $1,808.7M plus borrowings of $874.9M less unrestricted cash of $249.3M. Operating lease liabilities of $32.4M are excluded from borrowings and every multiple is struck on that basis.
2026-08-22SEC Form 10-Q filed 30 July 2026, statements of cash flows
The two free cash flow figures, and why both belong on the page
Operating cash flow less capital expenditure was $251.8M over the trailing twelve months, a 13.9% yield on the market capitalisation, and that is the figure the metric card reports because it is the definition every peer is measured on. It is also incomplete for this business. The purchases of investments in loans and securities that the securitisations require are classified as investing, not operating: $854.1M out and $588.0M back over the same twelve months, a net $266.1M. Free cash flow after that outflow was minus $14.3M. The same measure was minus $55.2M in fiscal 2025 and minus $417.4M in fiscal 2024, so the business is close to funding its own retention for the first time. Both numbers appear on this page rather than one, because using only the first overstates the cash available to an owner and using only the second makes the company incomparable with its peer set.
2026-08-22Q2 2026 earnings release, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation
The impairment that is excluded every quarter
Adjusted net income of $101.0M for the second quarter is struck after excluding $38.0M of impairment loss on certain investments, along with $8.6M of share-based compensation and smaller items. The same exclusion appears in every period the company reports: $14.8M in the second quarter of 2025, $394.5M in fiscal 2024, $98.3M in fiscal 2025 and $74.3M in the first half of 2026. Cumulatively since January 2024 the excluded impairment is $567.2M against $510.7M of adjusted net income reported over the same span. The impairment is falling sharply, which is the strongest single fact in the bull case, but it is a cost of holding retained credit risk rather than a one-off, and this page says so wherever an adjusted figure is used.
2026-08-22Fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, risk factors
The company's own statement of the central risk
The 10-K states that as a result of ABS issuances during 2025 the company's risk retention holdings increased, that it has incurred and could experience additional losses related to those holdings as a result of poor investment performance by the financing vehicles, and that failure to increase revenue and FRLPC, to keep cost levels in line with its investments, or material fair value losses associated with its investments in risk retention assets could prevent it from generating GAAP net income in the future. That is the same mechanism this page is built around, stated by the company before it is stated here.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. valuation questions
Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades below: $21.68 today versus a $25.50 estimate, about +18%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for PGY is $25.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $16.20, base $25.50, bull $33.60. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s forward P/E ratio?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) trades at a forward P/E of 10.8×, and 1.3× trailing sales.
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s market cap?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $1.81B, and an enterprise value of $2.43B.
What is the bull and bear case for PGY?
Valuation scenarios: bull $33.60, base $25.50, bear $16.20. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.